NCAAF Picks, Week 4 Predictions: Stuckey’s 5 College Football Afternoon Spots — 9/26

If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.

If you're looking for betting value for the afternoon Week 4 college football slate, you've come to the right place.

My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.

For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece. This is the third spots piece that I've completed this season. So, here's my NCAAF picks for Week 4.

• 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
• 2026: 15-7-1 (68.2%)
• Overall: 238-185-4 (56.3%)

NCAAF Picks, Week 4 Predictions for Afternoon Slate

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Wake Forest +13
	3:30 p.m.	Florida -2.5
	3:30 p.m.	Iowa State +8.5
	4 p.m.	Georgia Southern +18.5
	4:15 p.m.	Auburn -9

Wake Forest +13 at Louisville

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

I have had this spot circled for quite a while, but obviously things are a little murkier with Gio Lopez getting a questionable tag on the first availability report. He has since been upgraded to probable, which is a positive for this bet.

If he can't go, this bet is likely toast since the drop-off to backup freshman Steele Pizzella is significant.

Unfortunately, I'm already locked in at +13 even though 13.5s are currently available. Let's just hope Lopez isn't too compromised since his legs are a vital part of the offense.

Lopez has been outstanding running the show so far, which shouldn't be too surprising since he thrived under offensive coordinator Rob Ezell at South Alabama a couple of seasons ago. He knows the scheme, and it appears to be a perfect marriage, which makes his availability even more crucial.

If not for a couple of killer penalties on special teams and fourth-down misses, the Demon Deacons could have had a shot at upsetting Miami last week in what turned out to be a very easy cover.

Wake does benefit from an extra day of rest and prep since it last played on Friday night, while Louisville has to be a bit gassed after huge bouts vs. Ole Miss and SMU over a 13-day span with an FCS Friday night matchup squeezed in between.

I won't be shocked if the Cardinals come out a little bit flat for an early kick following a victory in their toughest remaining game on the schedule (and most important for the ACC race).

Plus, they do enter this game a bit beat up across the board following such a grueling schedule. They will particularly miss Antonio Watts on the defensive end.

Assuming Lopez is healthy, Wake's underrated offense can move the ball in a multitude of ways here. Keep an eye on the human first down, Carlos Hernandez.

On the other side of the ball, the Demon Deacons will play an abundance of zone to limit explosives (as they did vs. Miami) that Louisville has hit at a high rate on this season.

They will make the Cardinals drive the field and execute without making costly errors, becoming an issue for one of the five-most penalized teams in the country.

Louisville also still has major issues on special teams, so don't be surprised if we see a key blunder or two in the often-forgotten third phase, which arguably cost it a win against Ole Miss in the opener.

While the Louisville running game should churn, it will at least keep the clock moving and condense the game.

L's down!

Pick: Wake Forest +13 or Better

Florida -2.5 vs. Ole Miss

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

This is the obvious spot of the year in college football with Ole Miss coming off an enormous victory over Lane Kiffin and LSU in a game that took a full-40 minute effort to hang on by a thread.

Now, following one of the most hyped games of the entire season, the Rebels have to find a way to get back up for a road game in one of the most hostile environments in all of college football against a Florida team that I now have power-rated in the top 10, believe it or not.

Keep in mind, Ole Miss also had a full-40 minute effort against Louisville on a Sunday a few weeks back. In all honesty, this team is a few bounces away from coming into this game with a 1-2 record instead of 3-0.

I still have the Rebels power-rated above the Gators, but it's not by as much as some might think. We still need to learn a little bit more about Florida, but to me, these are two of the 10 best teams in the nation.

And in this particular spot, I have the home-field advantage worth right around four points in the Swamp for a ranked SEC matchup.

Throw in the situational angle, and I'm right around Florida -3.5, so I was still OK taking the Gators at under a field goal in a spot even your Aunt Judy knows about.

Ole Miss could also be without star running back Kewan Lacy, which would really cap the rushing explosiveness.

Meanwhile, Florida will have one a fully healthy Jadan Baugh, who has looked like the best back in the country so far this season. Throw in one of the better receiving corps in the country, and this group of skill-position players is absolutely loaded.

Quarterback in Aaron Philo also looks very comfortable running an offense he knows very well from his time at Georgia Tech with Buster Faulkner, arguably the top offensive coordinator in the sport.

I love Trinidad Chambliss and don't enjoy betting against him (although I did so vs. Charlotte and Louisville, while backing him vs. LSU), and he certainly won't make this bet easy.

The Rebels will score their fair share of points, but this Florida defensive line is the real deal and can create enough Havoc and negative plays to get off the field.

And if Ole Miss comes out flat, Florida can play with a lead, leaning on Baugh against a vulnerable Rebel run defense to set up easy play-action shots to exploit a secondary that has had quite a few coverage busts so far this season.

Lastly, Florida head coach Jon Sumrall has to have a bit of an edge due to prepping for this Ole Miss team twice last season. And this time around, he won't have the Tulane roster to work with.

Instead, he has a ferocious Florida defensive line that will have some matchup advantages, especially off the edge, against this Ole Miss offensive line.

Don't be fooled by the final score last week at Auburn. Midway through the fourth quarter, the Gators led by 17 and held a 475-220 yardage edge before the Tigers punched in a couple late scoring drives, including a long pass on fourth down in the final seconds.

Chomp Chomp.

Pick: Florida -2.5 (-125 or Better)

Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis!

Iowa State +8.5 vs. Utah

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

It's time to put some respect on Jimmy Rogers' name, as it seems he's way ahead of expectations in rebuilding an Iowa State program that Matt Campbell gutted in the offseason.

Rogers did the same thing last year in Pullman, guiding Washington State to a seven-win season despite a brutal schedule.

Just take a look at his last 10 games vs. FBS competition. Over that span, Rogers has gone 9-1 ATS, covering by an absolutely absurd 15 points per game. That includes the following results as a large underdog:

• Lost by 4 as a 15-point underdog at James Madison
• Lost by 2 as a 16-point underdog at Virginia
• Lost by 3 as a 33-point underdog at Ole Miss
• Lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog at Iowa

The first three came last year with Washington State against two College Football Playoff teams and a third that nearly made it.

His teams have also held leads in the fourth quarter in all three, with chances to win each as a massive 'dog. That's damn impressive.

I also brought up last season because Rogers brought many players with him from Pullman to Ames, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, where seven of the top 15 in snap count are ex-Cougars.

As a result, there was already a solid foundation and familiarity with defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit's (who came with Rogers from Wazzu) scheme. They also seemingly hit on a number of other transfers they brought in from lower levels.

This defense is balling out at the moment and should get back two of its better defensive backs who sat out last week.

If not for a false start penalty, the Cyclones easily could have won at Iowa two weeks ago in a game where they held the Hawkeyes to 93 yards rushing on 29 attempts.

That's a damn good sign ahead of this matchup against the potent Utah rushing attack, especially considering Iowa has one of the better offensive lines in the country. I can't say the same for Utah.

Everyone has seemingly forgotten that Utah lost all five starters along the offensive line, including two tackles selected in the first round of the NFL Draft (along with two others who signed with NFL teams).

The Utes also lost head coach Kyle Whittingham, offensive coordinator Jason Beck and a number of its best players to Michigan, including a few from a defense that had major issues last year.

Why does everyone have amnesia all of a sudden? Because Utah beat (checks notes) Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State (where its new OC came from) at home? Yawn.

Now, the Utes head out on the road for the first time (with a first-time head coach) against real competition.

The pure numbers guys will love Utah here because of priors, but I've upgraded Iowa State more than any team in the country and came into the season much lower than the market on Utah.

Plus, we have at least seen Iowa State play one super competent opponent in a hostile environment in a game where it exceeded expectations.

The Clones should have success running the ball with the underrated Aiden Flora and company against a Utah defense that allowed 5.0 yards per carry last season, which ranked 114th nationally. And it lost its three best run defenders from that team.

And don't sleep on the fact that Iowa State has one of the better kickers in the country and an overall edge on special teams, which could help decide this cover.

I know this line has dropped from the soft open, but I actually project 7 accounting for everything. I'll likely be on an island here, but I believe the Clones keep this close, and I wouldn't be shocked if they pull off the upset in front of a juiced home contingent.

Let's just hope the inevitable interception from Jaylen Raynor isn't too costly.

Pick: Iowa State +8.5 (Play to +8)

Georgia Southern +18.5 vs. Houston

4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU

Georgia Southern didn't cover last week (somehow), but the Eagles have exceeded market expectations in each of their matchups against FBS opponents.

They covered easily in a competitive game vs. Clemson and then outgained Jacksonville State, 369-302, on the road last week. They led by 14 at the half after jumping out to a 17-0 lead, but eventually lost by four on a Jax State punt return touchdown followed by a Max Johnson interception in the red zone in the final two minutes.

Bottom line, Georgia Southern has played a bit better than I had expected with an entirely new offense.

Head coach Clay Helton did at least have a very experienced defense (top-25 in returning production) to lean on coming into the season, and they;ve been particularly stout against the run, which is important against a Willie Fritz offense.

That strength can also keep the game from getting too out of hand.

So, why do I like this spot? Well, it's twofold.

For starters, this is a bit of a flat spot for Houston. The Cougars will travel to a G6 school following a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech with conference play ramping back up next week.

Conversely, this is a super hype spot for Georgia Southern, which will host a Power 4 team for the first time in program history. This is a big deal in Statesboro, and it should draw a very good crowd.

Lastly, I'm not sure Fritz wants to bury the school he used to coach at, which could leave the backdoor wide open if needed.

I believe Georgia Southern's short-passing attack can do enough to keep the sticks moving, with backup quarterback Weston Bryan providing a nice boost on short-yardage and goal-line situations. That helps solve a major issue for this Eagles offense in the past.

GATA!

Pick: Georgia Southern +18.5 or Better

Auburn -9 vs. Vanderbilt

4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

Despite a 3-0 record, Vanderbilt has been super underwhelming to start the season and has taken a major step back as expected.

The Commodores beat Delaware by single digits in a game they finished with one more yard than the Blue Hens. Then, last week, against a down NC State club, they trailed by 17 in the second half before mounting a comeback to win on the final play of the game in one of the most miraculous wins I've ever seen.

And even if we forget about the fumble in the end zone on the failed safety attempt, the Wolfpack would have won that game by double digits if they hadn't whiffed on a fourth-down sack earlier in the fourth quarter.

Now, Vanderbilt (which could be a bit flat after such a thrilling victory) will head out on the road against much stiffer competition with a true freshman quarterback making his first career road start in a very hostile environment.

Auburn hasn't lit the world on fire so far this season, but the Tigers have played a significantly more difficult schedule than Vandy.

Coming into the season, my primary concerns for this roster were the offensive line and edge rush following the turnover they experienced in the offseason. Well, there are still more questions than answers with both.

With that said, this offensive line will have a much easier matchup this week, and I did like that head coach Alex Golesh started to roll quarterback Byrum Brown out more as the game progressed against Florida.

I'd expect more of that this week against a Clark Lea defense that does like to bring pressure.

I'm expecting plenty of explosive plays on the outside where the Auburn wideouts will have matchup advantages against a Vandy secondary that just got torched by CJ Bailey.

College Football Picks, Predictions: Week 4 Expert Best Bets for Texas vs Tennessee, Ole Miss vs Florida, MoreRead now

I'd also expect a spirited effort from a veteran Auburn defense that got embarrassed last week and last season at Vanderbilt.

Jared Curtis will likely make some youthful mistakes, and the Auburn back end can capitalize. That should allow the Tigers to get out to a lead, where Golesh's teams always thrive as a frontrunner.

And I wouldn't expect him to take his foot off the gas, needing a big win in his first season in front of a fan base that hasn't seen a home SEC win since November 2024.

This is also an opponent that has owned Auburn in recent seasons, which Golesh has heard all about recently. This game has extra meaning for a multitude of reasons to this staff, especially when you look at Auburn's next four games:

• at Tennessee
• at Georgia
• vs. LSU
• at Ole Miss

Sheesh.

I project this spread above 10 and think we would've seen a 10-plus had Vanderbilt lost by double digits at home to NC State (which it was one missed tackle away from doing).

Instead, it picked up a Powerball-type win, and we may have gotten a better number and a better spot to fade the 'Dores.

War Eagle.

Pick: Auburn -9 (Play to -9.5)