College Football Odds, Picks for UNC vs. Pitt
Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UNC quarterback Drake Maye.
North Carolina vs. Pitt Odds
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -300 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +240 |
North Carolina begins conference play on the road at Pittsburgh on Saturday night.
UNC is off to a fantastic start to the season, beating both South Carolina and Minnesota while also surviving a double-overtime thriller with Appalachian State.
The Tar Heels are one of the dark horses to win the ACC this season and have one of the best quarterbacks in college football in Drake Maye. They've lost their last two trips to Pitt with both ending in overtime, so we'll see if they can exact some revenge on Saturday night.
Pitt is off to a pretty terrible start, losing back-to-back games to Cincinnati and West Virginia. The offense put up just 27 combined points in those two games, so Frank Cignetti Jr. and Phil Jurkovec have to get things figured out.
Maye put up some crazy numbers last season, but maybe the most impressive was a 90.8 PFF passing grade. Only two quarterbacks in college football had a better grade: Alabama's Bryce Young and Houston's Clayton Tune, who are both now in the NFL.
Maye had an absurd 45 big-time throws last season, which was by far the most in college football. Through three games this year, he already has a PFF passing grade of 90.2 while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with an 85.3% adjusted completion percentage.
Drake Maye DIME🎯
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 16, 2023
Maye is also a fantastic runner. He carried the ball 183 times last season and gained over 900 yards with 26 missed tackles forced and 32 runs of 10-plus yards. He's already run for 140 yards on 14 attempts this season and is truly one of the best dual-threats in the country.
North Carolina has all five starters and 137 starts back on its offensive line. It struggled to protect Maye last year, but its pressure rate allowed is already down 7% from 2022, so the Heels are making improvements.
The problems that existed for North Carolina in 2022 came on the defensive side of the ball. Time and again, it couldn't cause turnovers or tackles for loss. It also couldn't stop anybody once they crossed the 40-yard line, ranking 125th in Finishing Drives Allowed and 130th in Havoc.
The Heels have done a better job in both of those categories this year, ranking 22nd in Finishing Drives Allowed and 39th in Havoc.
They do have eight starters returning on the defensive side of the ball, and the good news is they didn't lose much in their front seven with their top five tacklers from last season returning.
Things are not going well for Cingetti and the Pittsburgh offense in his second season as offensive coordinator. He brought Jurkovec in from Boston College after coaching the quarterback in 2020 and 2021.
The Eagles could never protect Jurkovec in Chestnut Hill. Jurkovec was pressured on 43.3% of his dropbacks in 2022, which was the third-highest percentage in college football for quarterbacks with more than 200 dropbacks, per PFF.
Only three starters have returned on the offensive line, and Jurkovec still can't get any protection. He's getting pressured on 42% of his dropbacks through three games, which has translated to a 54.3 PFF passing grade and a 52% adjusted completion percentage.
Pitt ran the ball well against Wofford, which kind of inflated its rushing metrics. Against Cincinnati and West Virginia, the Panthers averaged only 3.3 yards per carry, which is a major problem considering they can't protect Jurkovec.
The Pitt defense returned only five starters from last season and is struggling to generate Havoc, ranking 122nd in the country. A lot of the Panthers' losses were in the front seven, as they lost their top four tacklers from last season.
Cincinnati ran all over them for 216 yards and 5.1 yards per carry in Week 2, so North Carolina could do the same with a mobile quarterback like the Bearcats have in Emory Jones.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and Pitt match up statistically:
North Carolina Offense vs. Pitt Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 49 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 35 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 122 | |
| Finishing Drives | 105 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 48 |
Pitt Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 23 | |
| Quality Drives | 108 | 87 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 45 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 24 | 50 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 19 | 108 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 48 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (30) | 29.0 (95) |
| Rush Rate | 54.3% (79) | 56.7% (49) |
North Carolina vs Pitt
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a really bad matchup for Pitt, and it all comes down to its offensive line not being able to protect Jurkovec. The BC transfer is not a good quarterback under pressure.
What makes it even worse is that the Panthers haven't run the ball effectively against FBS opponents, so they're kind of stuck offensively.
It seems that the North Carolina defense has solved its two biggest weaknesses of Finishing Drives Allowed and generating Havoc, which is huge in this matchup against a bad Pittsburgh offensive line.
Maye has lit it up once again offensively this season, and with the inexperience across the Panthers defense, there are some real question marks on how they're going to stop him.
I have North Carolina projected at -11.2, so I like the value on the Tar Heels at -7.5 or better.
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