Ohio State vs. Penn State Best Bets & Predictions: How We’re Betting This Big Ten Total & Spread
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton, Drew Allar and James Franklin. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., Kyle McCord and Ryan Day.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -180 |
There’s no shortage of Big Ten East and College Football Playoff implications as Penn State makes its biennial pilgrimage to Columbus for the biggest game of the college football weekend.
While a loss for either side doesn’t eliminate it from the division race, it becomes precipitously more difficult in needing all the tiebreakers to fall the right way.
Both Big Ten behemoths arrive at the rivalry matchup with perfect records intact.
The Buckeyes have the more impressive resume with a three-point win at Notre Dame in hand. The Nittany Lions have navigated an easier schedule with their best win arguably coming at home over West Virginia to open the season or against Iowa nearly a month ago.
Ohio State remains a source of Kryptonite for James Franklin, who is just 1-8 all-time against the Buckeyes and 0-4 in Columbus.
Saturday, however, marks what is likely his best chance to topple Ohio State since the 2017 and ‘18 seasons with Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley.
This year’s Nittany Lions boast a nation-leading defense, as well as former Mr. Ohio Football Drew Allar, who has yet to throw an interception this season.
The four-point spread for this game is the closest it’s been since the 2018 season when the Buckeyes closed as 3.5-point favorites. Ohio State has closed as a double-digit favorite in each of the past three seasons against the Nittany Lions, including when it was favored by 18.5 points the last time Penn State traveled to Columbus.
The total is the lowest it’s been since the 2011 season when it closed at 37.5 in Penn State’s 20-14 road victory, which speaks to the mostly unproven quarterbacks and the quality of each team’s defense.
The votes have been cast for the final version of this annual rivalry, so which way is our staff leaning? Let's dive in.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Spread
Penn State +4
Our staff has a consensus lean to take the points in this marquee matchup featuring No. 7 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State.
Both teams are undefeated this season, and it's worth noting right out of the gate that Penn State is 6-0 against the spread this season.
So, if the Nittany Lions are perfect against the spread this season, why are they getting more than a field goal in a massive rivalry game? The one thing working against Penn State this season is its strength of schedule. PSU ranks 107th in the nation based on record to date, per PFF.
While their toughest opponent so far this season likely has been Iowa, the Nittany Lions did shut them out, 31-0. Heading into a hostile environment without facing a top-tier opponent has Vegas throwing a little shade at Penn State.
The Nittany Lions will look to their top-ranked defense to do the heavy lifting in this game, and there are reasons to believe that the Manny Diaz-led unit will be able to flummox the Buckeyes' aerial attack.
Penn State has the best passing defense in the nation, which allows just 121.2 yards per game. The secondary will face its toughest test of the season against Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, but it's not without reinforcements up front.
The Penn State pass rush ranks third in the nation, per PFF, with a grade of 89.3. While a high ranking is all well and good, it’s the situational dilemma that this elite pass rush and excellent secondary pose for McCord in the pocket.
McCord enters the game as the 39th-ranked passer in FBS, per PFF. While McCord has been productive with a clean pocket, he struggles under pressure. His passer rating without pressure sits at a respectable 127.6, but it plummets to 51.4 when it gets crowded.
This leads to all sorts of derivative effects, such as a turnover-worthy play percentage of 3.6%, which plays right into Penn State's wheelhouse.
The Action Network PRO Model projects Penn State at +3.1 which represents a 3.5% edge to the consensus line of +4.5. At the time of writing, there are some books that are offering a five, which offers even more value and may be available through kickoff, as Ohio State generally attracts a lot of casual cash.
Lastly, since taking the head-coaching job at Penn State in 2014, James Franklin has made four trips to the Horseshoe. In all four trips, Penn State has been underdogs, and after failing to cover on his first visit in 2015, the Nittany Lions have covered in each of their last three visits to Columbus.
This spread bet is all about the Penn State defense neutralizing Ohio State's passing game and keeping the ball on the ground. Back the better defense, as the Nittany Lions should keep this game close.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Over/Under
Over 45.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 45.5 | 13 Picks |
Under 45.5
There's a clear consensus from our staff when it comes to the total in this heavyweight matchup. That consensus is on the under.
It would not be hyperbolic at all to argue that both defenses have sizable advantages in this game, which should make points hard to come by.
It's true that Penn State has faced a soft schedule to this point, as Patrick mentioned above, but there's no denying just how dominant this unit has been.
It pressures the quarterback, the secondary is phenomenal, and the Nittany Lions are taking the ball away.
Meanwhile, Ohio State doesn't have the same offense college football fans have been accustomed to seeing when it’s had Justin Fields or CJ Stroud at the helm.
Kyle McCord has made some big plays and he seems to be gaining comfort in the pocket, but he still has a long way to go.
In the matchup at Notre Dame, the Buckeye offense was held to just 10 points for the first 59 minutes before Chip Trayanum broke the plane on the final play.
On the other side of the ball, the Jim Knowles effect for the Buckeye defense is real in Year 2. Knowles runs a complex system that takes time for players to adapt to, but the dividends are paying off this season.
Ohio State has still not allowed 20 points to an opponent in a game this season, and the Buckeyes are performing extremely well in the red zone.
Drew Allar has looked steady in his first year as Penn State's starting quarterback, but Saturday will be a massive step up in weight class both in atmosphere as well as the level of defense he will be facing.
Ultimately, our staff believes this game sets up as a slugfest between two physical teams that have elite defenses.
More Ways to Bet Ohio State vs. Penn State
By Alex Hinton
Penn State has beaten Ohio State just once since 2011, and it's 1-8 since James Franklin arrived in Happy Valley. With that kind of dominance, you would think that Ohio State was completely dominating this matchup.
However, Penn State has had a chance to win many of those games.
In Franklin’s tenure, Penn State has been tied or had a lead in the fourth quarter five times against the Buckeyes. Its best opportunity came in 2017 when it took a 15-point lead to the fourth quarter before OSU rallied.
When looking at this year’s matchup, you would think Penn State has a great chance to win once again. Drew Allar is the most talented quarterback Franklin has had, and Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen give the Nittany Lions two dynamic backs.
On the other side of the ball, edge rushers Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac will pose a difficult challenge for Ohio State’s tackles, which have been a question mark this season.
However, I have little confidence that Franklin will be able to pull this off. A few of those close games would have turned out differently if not for questionable coaching decisions by Franklin.
For example, running the ball on fourth-and-5 down one when another 10 yards would have put the Nittany Lions in field goal range in 2018 was questionable. Franklin is also 3-15 outright against top-10 teams.
Here, Penn State will need to be ahead at halftime. It has led at the half in three of the past nine matchups, including last year. It could certainly happen again this year if Penn State’s defense gives Kyle McCord fits early on.
However, I have more confidence in Ryan Day making the proper adjustments to win this game. That will likely include a heavy dose of Marvin Harrison Jr.
Building out the double result comes out to +528 at FanDuel and +600 at DraftKings. We’re getting nice value here at BetMGM.
If you're looking for a higher potential payout to start the day, I like a same-game parlay combining Penn State moneyline and the under at a price of +385.
The rationale here is that if Penn State can pick up the win, it’s going to be on the heels of its staunch defense. After regrouping and taking the defensive coordinator job at Penn State, Manny Diaz has this unit clicking on all cylinders.
The Penn State defense sits at the top of the charts in a variety of statistics, ranking first in total defense (193.7 YPG) and passing defense (121.2 YPG). Meanwhile, it comes in at second in scoring defense (8.0 PPG) and third in rushing defense (72.5 YPG).
In order for the Nittany Lions to secure the win, they're going to need to shut down the Kyle McCord-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection. Given the strength of Penn State's pass rush and secondary coverage, I think this is very achievable.
McCord has struggled under pressure this season, and this is the best coverage and pass-rush unit he'll face this season. If Penn State can force a handful of turnovers and force Ohio State to the ground, it should set the under up well, making an outright win in hostile territory entirely possible.
On offense, Penn State will look to lean on its run-first approach against a respectable Ohio State rushing defense.
Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar will need to make plays to supplement the run game at some point in this contest. Allar has been closer to a game manager than anything this season, but he has yet to throw an interception and has performed well under pressure with a passer rating of 112.4 in a crowded pocket.
If Penn State wins this game, it’s going to be because of its excellent defense. Allar is due for a coming-out party, and I like combining a plus-money outright win with the under to start off our Saturday.
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