Oregon vs. Oregon State Picks, Predictions: How We’re Betting This Rivalry Spread, Total
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Oregon State’s Damien Martinez and DJ Uiagalelei. Oregon’s Bo Nix and Troy Franklin.
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -115 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -105 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +430 |
By Dan Keegan
The final year of the Pac-12 Conference as we know it has given us mountains of intrigue.
From USC’s collapse to Arizona’s emergence, to media rights bickering and realignment drama. Heisman-caliber quarterbacks have thrived, leading potent offenses into the playoff hunt. Oh, and I didn’t even mention Coach Prime.
The league gives us another moment on Friday night, in its parting weekend. Archrivals Oregon and Oregon State meet on the field for perhaps the final time, and certainly for the final time as conference mates.
The Ducks have ascended into the sport’s inner circle, but standing between them and a spot in the Pac-12 title game (and from there, perhaps a College Football Playoff berth) are their archenemy Beavers.
The Ducks are two-touchdown favorites. The home team is getting a lot of respect in the market, as this Oregon State team just went toe-to-toe with the Washington Huskies and hunted the Ducks last year.
But both of those games were in Corvallis, giving Oregon State one of the best home-field advantages in the sport.
Will the Beavers be able to deliver on the road? When you look at metrics and splits, the Ducks have a lot of rankings by their name that are in the single digits. A lot.
Oregon State has a lot of small numbers, too, but most of them are in the teens and 20s.
There's a gap between a quality Oregon State team and an excellent Oregon outfit, one that has been built by Dan Lanning into something resembling the great teams from the Southeast.
Will the Beavs be able to close that gap and cover the spread? Or do the Ducks just have too much pep in their step right now?
We want to find some consensus among our team on this massive Friday night affair, so we polled 14 members of our college football staff. Our team likes the Beavers catching two touchdowns and thinks the total will go under.
Let’s get into our reasoning.
Oregon vs. Oregon State Spread
Oregon State +14
As a group, our staff has a strong conviction to take the points in this rivalry game, even as the Beavers head into very hostile territory to face the hosting Ducks in Eugene.
The crux of our angle for this bet centers on the Oregon State offense being able to do enough to hang with the electric Oregon offense.
While a lot of hoopla will be made about Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and his resurgence in Corvallis, the Beavers are a run first-team and have one of the better backfields in the nation.
Coming into this game, Oregon State ranks tied for 11th in the nation in rushing offense, per PFF.
The Beavers' backfield is anchored by running back Damien Martinez, who has burst onto the national scene in recent weeks. The sophomore is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has hit paydirt nine times this season, with six of those touchdowns coming in the last two games.
Martinez will be a linchpin of the game plan as Oregon State looks to keep Bo Nix and company off the field as much as possible.
Now, this is not to say that a lot won't be asked of DJU, because that's not true. Uiagalelei will have to play an excellent game, especially as he looks to keep up with a Heisman contender in Nix.
However, the Oregon defense is weakest against the ground game, playing into the strengths of the Beavers offense. That should lighten the a that would otherwise be thrust onto Uiagalelei.
Our Action Network PRO Projections make Oregon State an 11.8-point underdog in this matchup. This represents a +0.8% edge to current markets, with the line currently above the key number of 13 from all the major books.
We recommend backing the visiting Beavers and expect them to lean on Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick and the run game to keep this game close down the stretch. Play this at 13 or better in favor of the Beavers.
Oregon vs. Oregon State Over/Under
Over 62 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 62 | 8 Picks |
Under 62
The initial bias when thinking about a Pac-12 grudge match is hammering the over, but that's not the way our staff is interpreting the dynamics of this clash between two in-state rivals in the Beaver State.
So, why is our staff fading the over in a matchup featuring two teams that rank in the top 20 in scoring offense nationally? Our answer boils down to scheme and our faith in the respective defenses of both schools.
The relative strength of both programs is the secondaries, and this leads us to believe that both teams are going to present run-heavy packages in this game. Passing yards are going to come at a premium, especially compared to rushing yards, as Oregon and Oregon State have the 14th- and 26th-ranked defensive backfields in the nation, respectively, per PFF.
We’d be remiss if we didn’t touch on the fact that limiting Nix is imperative for this bet to play out, but we think that the run games of both teams will eat enough clock to effectively serve as a governor to his time on the field.
The Nix-led Ducks have the second-ranked run game in the country, per PFF, and should have no problem finding success on the ground against a Beavers run defense that ranks 10th in the Pac-12 and gives up 217.6 yards per game on the ground.
On the other side, the Oregon run defense isn’t as weak as its opposition’s, but it’s still middle of the pack in the Pac-12. It ranks sixth and allows 169.6 yards per game.
This should allow Oregon State and Martinez to be very effective on the ground.
While it's tempting to back Nix and, to a lesser extent, Uiagalelei in a shootout, we recommend taking the under on the basis that the total is too high in what should be a run-heavy rivalry game.
Play the under at 61 points or better.
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