SMU vs Boston College Pick, Odds: Why to Bet the Favorite in Fenway Bowl
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SMU Mustangs vs Boston College Eagles Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -450 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +340 |
Let's take a look at the SMU Mustangs vs. Boston College Eagles odds and make a Fenway Bowl pick for Thursday morning.
Who says you have to wait until 2024 to start a new ACC rivalry? Let the Fenway Bowl serve as a ceremonial first pitch for SMU and Boston College — two soon-to-be conference foes.
SMU (11-2) is set to join the ACC next season, but before it does so, it has a chance to prove the College Football Playoff committee wrong for leaving the Mustangs out of a New Year’s Six bowl game. No. 24 SMU lost out on the Group of Five spot to an undefeated Liberty program that ranks 133rd in strength of schedule.
Boston College (6-6) rebounded from a 1-3 start to the season, securing its first bowl berth since 2019. It’s a short trip for the Eagles to Fenway Park, a welcome advantage for a team that lost three straight games by double digits to end the regular season.
With Thursday’s forecast calling for a high likelihood of rain and wind in Boston, should bettors target the total? Or is SMU as a two-score favorite the home-run pick inside MLB’s oldest stadium?
Fresh off winning its first American Athletic Conference crown since 1984, SMU arrives at the home of the Green Monster looking to pick up its first 12-win season in nearly 90 years.
The Mustangs, who had one of the more efficient offenses in the country and ranked sixth in scoring (40.6 points per game), will be without star quarterback Preston Stone, who was injured in their final game of the regular season.
While the absence of the AAC's leader in passing yards per attempt (9.3) is a big loss, the Mustangs offense is still in good hands with backup quarterback Kevin Jennings and a solid offensive line.
Jennings started in SMU’s conference championship win over Tulane, completing 19-of-33 passes for 203 yards while adding another 63 yards on the ground.
His dual-threat ability adds another option to a rushing attack that's 35th in Success Rate behind an offensive line that's top-50 in Line Yards and Havoc Allowed.
On the other side of the ball, SMU’s defense has had one of the biggest year-over-year improvements in the nation. The Mustangs’ total defense improved over 100 spots nationally (from 112th to 11th) as SMU allowed over 400 yards just twice this season, a number its defense averaged in 2022.
The Mustangs’ biggest strength is their secondary that ranks fourth in Pass Success Allowed.
While a Boston College team with a poor passing game will likely opt for a heavy dose of rushing, SMU is well-equipped there with a run defense that finished second in the AAC.
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Jeff Hafley’s third season as Boston College head coach has been one filled with red-hot and ice-cold stretches. The Eagles started off 1-3 before reeling off five straight wins, followed by a three-game losing streak to close the year.
Five of Boston College’s six wins came by seven or fewer points, with those victories coming over the likes of Holy Cross, Virginia, Army, UConn and Syracuse — not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents.
One of the big reasons for BC’s struggles down the stretch has been an inconsistent passing game. Thomas Castellanos’s 57.1% completion percentage is the worst in the ACC among qualified players, and his 13 interceptions are the second-most in the conference.
It makes sense, then, that the Eagles are top-20 in the nation in rush rate (59.6%). Castellanos’ most valuable weapons are his legs. The sophomore quarterback actually sits fifth in the ACC in rushing with 79.8 yards per game.
Boston College is particularly good at picking up yardage in chunks on the ground. The Eagles’ 70 rushing plays of 10 or more yards are tied for second in the conference.
BC’s defense has been a mirror image of its offense, with the passing defense being the biggest bugaboo on that side of the ball. Boston College ranks 132nd in Pass Success Rate Allowed, something that will be made worse by three starters in the secondary missing this game with injuries or opt-outs.
Boston College’s front seven has also been one of the worst in the nation. Its 38 tackles for loss are a full eight fewer than any other team in the country, and only BYU and Virginia have fewer than Boston College’s 12 sacks.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Boston College match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. Boston College Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 132 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 131 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 121 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 113 |
Boston College Offense vs. SMU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 54 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 5 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 35 | 90 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 102 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 77 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 129 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.0 (27) | 26.4 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 55.6% (37) | 59.6% (19) |
SMU vs Boston College
Betting Pick & Prediction
With the weather, Stone’s absence, SMU’s potential disappointment at missing a New Year’s Six and Boston College’s propensity to run the ball, my first inclination was to target the total.
But the line has steadily steamed down to 47 after opening in the 50s, which is too rich for my blood.
Instead, the best play is to back the Pony Express.
Boston College has arguably one of the hollowest six-win records among bowl-eligible teams. Its best win was by 15 points over one of the most inconsistent teams in the country in Georgia Tech.
SMU, meanwhile, plowed through the AAC with an undefeated conference record, as the Mustangs only picked up losses on the road at Oklahoma and TCU.
Jennings probably won’t be asked to throw it too much in the rain, but even if he is, he looked fine in the AAC Championship, and this Boston College secondary is one of the worst in college football.
As long as SMU’s defense can limit Boston College’s explosive run plays, there’s no reason the Mustangs can’t win this by double digits.
Pick: SMU -10 (Play to -10.5)
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