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College Football Odds, Picks for South Carolina vs. Clemson

College Football Odds, Picks for South Carolina vs. Clemson article feature image
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Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: KJ Henry and Tyler Davis.

South Carolina vs Clemson Odds

Saturday, Nov. 26
12 p.m. ET
ABC
South Carolina Gamecocks Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+14.5
-115
53.5
-110o / -110u
+470
Clemson Tigers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-14.5
-105
53.5
-110o / -110u
-625
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The South Carolina Gamecocks just pulled off the most significant upset of the college football season last week. Now what?

Shane Beamer’s club aims for its fourth outright win as an underdog this season, fresh off a 63-38 posterizing of Tennessee as 22-point pups.

Odds peg the Gamecocks as double-digit underdogs for the second consecutive week against Clemson, which is statistically off its best win of the season.

The Tigers (-19) routed Miami 40-10, and the 11-point win above the closing line is the best all year for the program. I predicted a Tennessee cover over South Carolina last weekend. That went pretty terribly.

This week, I think there’s an obvious pick.


Hangover Spot or Momentum for South Carolina?

Quarterback Spencer Rattler entered Week 12 with eight touchdown passes. He posted six alone vs. Tennessee.

After downplaying a 38-6 loss to Florida the previous week, Rattler indeed showed up when it mattered most.

Cocky cashed its win total over 6.5, bounced Tennessee out of the CFP in the process, and as a sweetener, also watched North Carolina lose on the same day — or in other words, a perfect day for the entire city of Columbia.

How South Carolina responds will be a big question all week.

Week 13 is a non-conference game, in one of the toughest road environments in college football, two days removed from injecting a pint of tryptophan right into the bloodstream.

South Carolina doesn’t necessarily perform well after covering, going just 1-9-1 against the number over the past 11 games.

Are the Gamecocks content after winning their faux national title, or will they sink their teeth into more orange Saturday?


Clemson’s Defensive Mismatch

On Saturday morning, Dabo Swinney will ferociously shake his 8-ball, wondering what the football gods have in the works for DJ Uiagalelei.

The Dabo Dice are apparently infinite-sided because Uiagalelei’s production can range anywhere from the NFL version of Nathan Peterman to Heisman finalist.

Running back Will Shipley’s spearheading a top-20 offense in Rush Success, and outside of Uiagalelei’s timely penchant for making us all question what his true talent really is, Clemson’s been pretty solid across the board, especially at getting a push and finishing off drives.

The defense has performed well in the first year sans Brent Venables. They’ve dealt with injuries and had a couple high-scoring games against potent teams in Wake and FSU. But they might feast on a South Carolina offense that does not handle pressure well.

Clemson is top five in Havoc and Pass Rush, and in turn top 20 in Pass Success.

The Tigers allow just 10.7 yards per completion, a year after ranking top-five nationally at 10.3.

The defense as a whole features four players rating 36th or better nationally at their position, according to PFF, including one on all three levels.

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South Carolina vs Clemson Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Carolina and Clemson match up statistically:

South Carolina Offense vs. Clemson Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 48 33
Line Yards 101 62
Pass Success 84 18
Pass Blocking** 45 6
Havoc 128 4
Finishing Drives 12 20
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Clemson Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 18 128
Line Yards 20 121
Pass Success 63 77
Pass Blocking** 63 33
Havoc 53 87
Finishing Drives 31 89
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 55 16
PFF Coverage 109 41
SP+ Special Teams 19 27
Seconds per Play 27.5 (92) 26.1 (56)
Rush Rate 51.8% (81) 55.3% (58)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

South Carolina vs Clemson Betting Pick

I love betting trends. Not because they can unlock the keys to the treasure trove or anything; I’m simply a sucker for theories behind backing or fading college football teams across hyper-specific filters.

Although my memory is cloudy for the amount of mid-major win totals I’ve lost over the last decade, one of my favorite college football systems applies this week: Bet the under the total between two teams off 40 or more point offensive showings, which is about 3% better than the break-even rate of 52.3% since 2005.

Also, teams that go off for 50+ points at home and then travel the following week were even more profitable to the under than the aforementioned clip — and South Carolina specifically fits the bill here.

This number’s been bet up from 51 (key) and up to 52 (key). I’d feel extremely stupid taking a position on under and watching the total get to, say, 52.5 or 53, but I wouldn’t agree with it.

I love both secondaries in this matchup – and as an ode to Cam Smith, I’m hoping the 63 points last week from Cocky was more of a blind squirrel finding its nut.

Pick: Under 52 (Play to 51.5)

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