Syracuse vs Pitt Odds, Picks | Saturday ACC Betting Preview
Bryan Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Syracuse’s Sean Tucker.
Syracuse vs Pitt Odds
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Syracuse tries to end its two-game losing streak on Saturday when it heads to Acrisure Stadium to take on Pitt.
It's been a resurgent season for the Orange, who won six straight games out of the gates and reached as high as 14th in the polls. This is just their third road trip of the season away from the dome, so we'll see if Syracuse can stop the skid on Saturday.
Pittsburgh finds itself in its own little skid at the moment, losing three of its last four games, which culminated in a 42-24 loss to North Carolina in Chapel Hill last weekend.
The Panthers had high hopes coming into the season with an elite defense returning a lot of starters, but they've been anything but elite, sitting at 4-4.
Orange Offense
Quarterback Garrett Shrader was benched during the Notre Dame game, but Shrader has been really good this season overall. He owns an 82.6 PFF passing grade and averages 8.5 yards per attempt with a 77.9% adjusted completion percentage.
We'll see if Dino Babers decides to stick with Shrader against Pitt — or instead if Babers opts for Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who came on in the second half.
No matter who's at quarterback, the focus of the Syracuse offense revolves around Sean Tucker, who is one of the best running backs in college football. Tucker averages 5.3 yards per carry with an 81.2 PFF rushing grade.
He's also accrued 21 runs of 10 yards or more.
Sean Tucker will be pleased with this carry🍊
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 1, 2022
Moreover, Syracuse's biggest advantage against Pitt is Finishing Drives. The Orange offense ranks 27th in Finishing Drives, whereas Pitt sits 67th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Orange Defense
One of the main reasons why Syracuse started out 6-0 was because of its defense. The Orange rank 16th in Success Rate Allowed and 29th in EPA/Play Allowed. They've also given up just 4.8 yards per play (21st in FBS).
The run defense has been a bit of a concern. Notre Dame ran all over the Orange last week for 246 yards.
Syracuse is allowing 4.1 yards per carry while ranking 97th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 106th in Defensive Line Yards —not good when that same team is going up against Israel Abanikanda.
However, the Syracuse secondary has been elite. The Orange rank 11th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, sixth in EPA/Pass Allowed and fifth in coverage grade, per PFF. So, they should be able to shut down Kedon Slovis.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Panthers Offense
The main problem with Pittsburgh's offense comes at the quarterback position with Slovis. Let's be blunt: The USC transfer has played poorly this season.
Slovis averages 7.5 yards per attempt, reports a mediocre 69.7 PFF passing grade and has seven big-time throws compared to 10 turnover-worthy plays.
On Saturday, Slovis must contend against one of the best secondaries in the ACC. The Syracuse defense allows just 6.2 yards per attempt (10th in FBS), owns the fifth-best PFF coverage grade nationally and ranks sixth in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Pitt has a tendency to become incredibly reliant on the run game; the Panthers run the ball on 54% of their offensive plays.
They have an outstanding running back in Israel Abanikanda, who averages 5.9 yards per carry to go along with 16 touchdowns and 29 runs of at least 10 yards.
However, much of Abanikanda's production came against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. In contrast, Abanikanda managed fewer than 5.0 yards per carry against West Virginia, Western Michigan, Georgia Tech, Louisville and North Carolina.
Israel Abanikanda: 2022 Rushing Splits by Opponent
vs.  | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yards | YPC | Rush TD |
| 497 | 9.0 | 10 |
vs.     | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yards | YPC | Rush TD |
| 435 | 4.2 | 5 |
Panthers Defense
Coming into the season, many pegged Pitt to be one of the best defenses in the ACC. However, the Panthers allow 5.7 yards per play (50th in FBS), ranking 40th in EPA/Play Allowed and 67th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The front seven has been solid overall. That unit sits 24th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 15th in Defensive Line Yards and fourth in Stuff Rate.
However, Pitt's defense is highly susceptible to giving up explosive plays in the run game; the Panthers rank 124th in rushing explosiveness allowed. That's not good news for a team going up against Tucker, who has broken off more than 20 runs of at least 10 yards this season.
The Panthers' secondary has been pretty solid, giving up only 6.6 yards per attempt and ranking in the top 40 in terms of PFF coverage grade and EPA/Pass Allowed.
However, Drake Maye just torched them last Saturday for 388 yards and five touchdowns. So, if Shrader is on his game, he should be able to move the ball consistently through the air.
Syracuse vs Pitt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Syracuse and Pitt match up statistically:
Syracuse Offense vs Pitt Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 24 |  |
| Line Yards | 30 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 47 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 64 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 67 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pitt Offense vs Syracuse Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 11 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 61 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 98 | 61 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 6 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 30 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 34 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 40 | 84 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (95) | 28.7 (112) |
| Rush Rate | 56.5% (47) | 56.4% (48) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Syracuse vs Pitt Betting Pick
Finishing Drives is the biggest advantage for Syracuse in this game on both sides of the ball. The Orange should be able to make the Pittsburgh offense completely one-dimensional, especially with winds projected to be over 10 MPH.
Cuse should also find ways to move the ball through the air or on the ground against an average Pittsburgh defense.
I have Syracuse projected as a -1.1 favorite, so I like the value on the Orange.
Pick: Syracuse +4 |
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