Tennessee vs. Alabama Betting Odds & Pick: Vols Look To Keep It Close Against Tide (Oct. 24)
UA Athletics/Collegiate Images/Getty Images. Pictured: John Metchie.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Odds
|Tennessee Odds||+22 [BET NOW]|
|Alabama Odds||-22 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+900/-5000 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||66 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET|
This week’s Havoc ratings took an exclusive look into Tennessee’s breakdown over its last six quarters of play. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano may be hearing footsteps with his recent flurry of interceptions, as the senior has already taken 11 sacks through 111 passing attempts this season. The celebrated Vols offensive line is 46th in Sack Rate but has gotten the job done in the rushing game with a rank of 17th in Line Yards.
The Volunteers defense has been serviceable through four games. It has allowed only four rushing attempts of more than 20 yards, and it owns a top-20 rank in Power Success and Stuff Rate. The pass defense has not fared as well against the likes of Kentucky, Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina. The Vols are 49th in defensive Passing Success Rate, and they have managed remarkably few pass-breakups (PBUs). Tennessee has recorded 11 PBUs through four games, which ranks 55th in FBS.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The national average for percent of Available Yards gained is 40%. Available Yards is a statistic that captures the difference between how many yards can be gained during the entire game from a team’s starting field position to the end zone. Alabama has yet to finish below 60% and gained 91% of available yards against Ole Miss. Georgia was considered the best defense college football had available to face the Tide. The Alabama offense responded with a 38% explosive drive rate (national average is 13%) and a 58% overall Success Rate.
The advanced box score also shows a Crimson Tide defense prepared to make a statement. Alabama recorded three turnovers and only allowed two passes of 20 yards or more. Georgia had just one explosive drive, ending 7-for-16 on third downs with an average distance over six yards.
The season numbers will take a few more games for the defensive splits to normalize after the Ole Miss game. Alabama is still a top-25 team in defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 3.14 points per opponent opportunity.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
There may not be a bigger buy-low, sell-high spot on the Week 8 board. Tennessee is coming off a gut-wrenching offensive performance in a loss to Kentucky, while Alabama dominated the No. 1 defense in the country. From a projections standpoint, the number should be closer to Alabama -18.5, even though the eyeball test says this is an easy Tide cover.
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This is an obvious hangover spot for Alabama after failing to cover in previous road trips to Missouri and Ole Miss. The formula for Tennessee to cover is to take the volatility out of the offense, namely electing to run twice as much as attempting a pass. This is an area where the Volunteers may have success against the Alabama front seven; as Georgia continually averaged five yards a carry.
This was Vols offensive coordinator Jim Chaney’s plan of attack last season in a 35-13 loss that easily went under the total. Wait for Alabama steam to take this number over three touchdowns, where the edge will be on Tennessee. The Vols can cover if they eliminate mistakes and attempt to slow down the Tide.
Pick: Tennessee +21.5 or better