College Football Odds, Pick for ULM vs Ole Miss: Rebels to Dominate?
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart.
College Football Odds for ULM vs Ole Miss
After an absolute dismantling at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs, the Ole Miss Rebels get to end their season with the gauntlet that is Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi State.
The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks, meanwhile, have lost eight straight after winning their first two.
Both teams are playing for pride at this point, and with a spread of 37.5, the Rebels are going to have to come out on fire to cover. Where are the possible edges? Continue reading for my ULM vs. Ole Miss pick.
It's been a really tough year for the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. Even ignoring the 2-8 record, they've had a tough time of it on both sides of the ball and have struggled in seemingly every metric.
On offense, the Warhawks struggle to move the ball, ranking 131st in success rate, then struggle to punch it in once they enter their opponent's territory (129th in points per opportunity). Of course, this isn't surprising when considering that the Warhawks also rank 108th in havoc allowed.
Why is their offense so bad? Well, they struggle to move the ball on first and second down. ULM ranks 125th in standard downs rate and is 125th in passing down situations. The Warhawks are also 121st in total ppa on passing downs because opposing defenses tee off on this offensive line and quarterback.
This shows up in quarterback Jiya Wright's PFF grade (53.7). However, he is riding some positive momentum after an appearance against Troy where he threw for 243 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Of course, the downside is that ULM lost 45-14.
Despite a despicable game against Georgia last weekend, Ole Miss' offense is still very good — especially if the opposing defense isn't loaded with five stars.
The Rebels rank 40th in Success Rate, 15th in Points per Opportunity and 16th in explosiveness.
The one area they struggle in is Havoc Allowed, where they rank 84th. However, that shouldn't be an issue against a Warhawks team that ranks 106th in total Havoc.
The Rebels use a fast-paced rushing attack to set up an elite passing attack. Despite ranking 90th in passing rate, Ole Miss ranks 31st in Success Rate and 22nd in explosiveness. It does this by rushing the ball relatively efficiently (58th in Rushing Success Rate) and often (40th in rushing rate).
Also, Ole Miss ranks 10th in seconds per play.
On the defensive side of the ball, look for Ole Miss to get after the quarterback. The Rebels come in at 17th in total Havoc, while the Warhawks sit 106th in Havoc Allowed.
ULM vs Ole Miss
Betting Pick & Prediction
Ole Miss has way too much firepower for ULM to compete in this spot, but is 37.5 too large of a spread? My money is on no.
The Rebels are going to move the ball efficiently and eat up big chunks of yardage. The Warhawks won't be able to stop one of the nation's best offenses on the ground or through the air.
It's all going to come down to whether or not Lane Kiffin takes his foot off the gas. After being embarrassed against Georgia, I don't think he will.
Pick: Ole Miss -37.5
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