The USF Bulls take on the Army Black Knights in West Point, NY. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Army is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my USF vs. Army prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12.
USF vs Army Prediction
- USF vs. Army Pick: Under 46.5 (Play to 45.5)
My Army vs. USF best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
USF vs Army Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -108u | +154 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -108u | -185 |
- USF vs Army point spread: Army -3.5 (-110), USF +3.5 (-110)
- USF vs Army over/under: 46.5 (-110o / -108u)
- USF vs Army moneyline: USF +154, Army -185
USF vs Army College Football Preview
USF Bulls Betting Preview: Didn't Inspire Much Confidence
After years of leading the Ohio State wide receivers, 39-year-old Brian Hartline got his shot at a head coaching gig in Tampa, Florida. He took over for Alex Golesh, who left for Auburn and took most of his best players with him.
Hartline picked up his first win with a 19-9 victory of FIU. While the Bulls got the job done, they didn't inspire as much confidence as people hoped.
Journeyman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. is at his third school in three years, moving from Mississippi State to LSU and now to South Florida. He started eight games for the Bulldogs and four games for the Tigers but has managed just 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
He struggled in his first start for the Bulls, throwing for just 100 yards against FIU.
The ground game didn't fare much better, with running backs Jason Collins Jr. (17 carries, 59 yards) and D.J. Crowther (14 carries, 42 yards) splitting touchdowns and neither able to get much going. South Florida managed just 2.8 yards per attempt on 38 total rushes against the Panthers' defense.
While the offense left a lot to be desired, the defense looked terrific in the opener. With just one returning starter, the Bulls are relying on nearly all transfer portal additions and so far, so good. 15 of the 18 defensive transfer pieces come from Power 4 teams.
Up front, the Bulls are anchored by Ohio State transfer C.J. Hicks on the edge, with a solid linebacker corps led by returnee Rodney Hill. South Florida allowed just 80 total rushing yards to FIU in the opener.
The secondary has a chance to be very good with portal pieces from Florida, West Virginia, BYU and Kansas State. They intercepted a pair of passes last week but allowed over 300 passing yards.
South Florida’s biggest strength might come on special teams, where Nico Gramatica is one of the most reliable kickers in the country. He went 4-of-4 in the season opener, including a 53-yarder that helped give the Bulls the victory.
Army Black Knights Betting Preview: Pound the Rock
Now in his 13th season as the Army head coach, Jeff Monken and the Black Knights fell to 6-6 last year, coming off their AAC Championship win in 2024. They're looking to bounce back in a wide-open conference race, starting with a dominant 59-3 win over FCS Bryant.
Quarterback Cale Hellums is back under center after rushing for 1,223 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. He was third in the country in rushing touchdowns and already tallied a pair of scores in the season opener. Army is going to go as far as Hellums takes them.
In Week 1 against Bryant, 16 different players recorded a rushing attempt for the Black Knights as they totaled 569 yards and eight touchdowns on 57 carries.
Godspower Nwawuihe led the way in rush attempts and is set to be the lead back, with gadget players Samari Howard and Zach Mundell getting plenty of touches as well.
The Black Knights' defense has to regroup after losing eight starters this offseason, including their entire linebacker room. Defensive coordinator Nate Woody also left for Cincinnati, a big loss for the Cadets.
However, in today’s landscape of constant roster turnover, there's no place where it matters less than at the Service Academies. We tend to see this every year, with new players just stepping in seamlessly.
Army still has a strong defensive line and some talent in the secondary. While it wasn’t the toughest test, it allowed just 165 total yards last week.
USF vs Army Pick, Betting Analysis
USF was ranked 22nd in the nation in Success Rate last season. An effective offense had become the Bulls’ calling card under Golesh, and most people expected that to continue under Hartline after his success at Ohio State.
The problem for me is that Hartline hired Tim Beck as the offensive coordinator. If you have read or listened to my work in the past, you know I'm not a fan of Beck as a play caller. His offenses at NC State were wildly predictable and lacked any creativity. At Coastal Carolina, his offenses were terrible and got progressively worse each season.
Beck falls into a pattern of very predictable play calling, and when the opponents are able to take away his primary option, he's unable to adapt and counter with something effective. He's one of the worst play callers in the country when it comes to making in-game adjustments.
It was great for USF to get the win in its opening game against FIU, but the Bulls were outgained 208-381 and looked abysmal on offense. USF managed four field goals and one touchdown in the game and all five of its scoring drives came off a turnover or turnover on downs, meaning it had a short field.
The Bulls' five scoring drives were only 39 yards, 15 yards, 35 yards, 24 yards and 29 yards. Van Buren wasn't effective as a passer or a runner, and the running game as a whole failed to get anything going.
On the other side, we know what Army is going to do. The Knights are going to run the ball, take their time, milk the clock and slow the game down. They totaled 57 rush attempts in their opener and returned a quarterback who was their leading rusher last season.
Army is going to continue to pound the rock and run behind All-American center Brady Small.
For its troubles on offense, the USF defense did look solid against FIU. It has a ton of Power 4 transfers on the defensive side of the ball and looked like it was clicking right away.
This total has already come down a ton, so unfortunately it's lost a bit of value from earlier in the week. After opening at 52.5, the line is down to 46.5 at the time of this writing.
With the next key number coming at 45, I would scoop this up before it gets to that number. I expect this one to be a low-scoring game, with points coming at a premium.
Pick: Under 46.5 (Play to 45.5)
