College Football Odds, Picks for Wake Forest vs Duke: Fade Weak Offenses

Editor's Note: The Wake Forest vs. Duke spread and over/under have moved with Duke quarterback Riley Leonard's injury. Check out our live college football odds page for up-to-date NCAAF odds.

There's no better way to kick off this Thursday than by jumping into Wake Forest vs. Dukeodds and predictions.

Injuries can quickly derail a season, and Duke (5-3) is no exception.

Following a 4-0 start to the year, an injury to quarterback Riley Leonard against Notre Dame has thrown a wrench into Mike Elko’s second season in Durham. Once a dark-horse contender to play for the ACC Championship, Duke has now lost three of its last four games.

Wake Forest (4-4) has dealt with quarterback injuries of its own, and it’s quickly running out of winnable games to secure a bowl berth.

The Demon Deacons likely need a win Thursday night — with remaining games against NC State, Notre Dame and Syracuse — to keep their streak of seven straight bowl games intact.

Both offenses have faded down the stretch. Is either one set go off for the first time in a month? Let's dive into the Wake Forest vs Duke odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Thursday, Nov. 2.

Starting quarterback Mitch Griffis returned to the Demon Deacon lineup last week, but it did nothing to elevate an offense that’s struggled since the calendar changed from September. The sophomore quarterback completed just six of his 16 passes for 82 yards in Wake Forest’s 41-16 loss to Florida State.

Since opening the season with four straight games of at least 400 yards, Wake Forest’s offense has come crashing back down to earth. In their last four games, the Demon Deacons have broken 20 points just once and have averaged 258.5 yards of total offense.

A big reason for the struggle, regardless of who’s been at quarterback, has been poor offensive line play. Wake Forest is 120th in Havoc Allowed, and Colorado is the only Power 5 team to have allowed more than Wake’s 36 sacks.

Defensively, Wake Forest has similarly declined in recent weeks despite playing bottom-half ACC offenses — Florida State notwithstanding.

In their last three games, the Deacs became one of just two teams to allow over 450 yards of offense to Virginia Tech, and they allowed 414 yards to Pitt — a season-high for the Panthers against FBS competition.

Wake’s defense, which ranks 35th in Rush Success Allowed, has performed better against the run than the pass.

That could play into its hand this week against a Duke offense that's struggled to pass since Leonard’s injury and his return since.

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After one of the best starts to the season in recent Duke history, the injury bug has begun to bear its wrath on the Duke offense.

A hobbled Leonard and mounting injuries on the offensive line have all contributed to what is now a five-quarter scoreless stretch for Duke.

The Blue Devils, who were blanked last week by Louisville, had to play without potential first-round NFL Draft pick Graham Barton at the left tackle position for the whole game and lost starting right guard Jacob Monk during it.

Leonard, who may have prematurely returned from his ankle injury, completed single-digit passes for the second week in a row and was sacked four times.

In the four games against FBS competition up to and including the one vs. Notre Dame in which Leonard suffered a late injury, Duke averaged 378 yards of offense and 30.3 points. In the three games since, the Blue Devils are averaging just 258.7 yards and 14.7 points.

Duke’s defense is decent, but it’s not good enough to win games if the offense is going to struggle like it recently has. The Blue Devils excel at coverage (10th) and have the third-best pass defense in the ACC (171.6 yards per game), but their front seven has struggled.

Duke ranks 77th and 92nd in Rush Success Allowed and Line Yards, respectively, and it may not be able to take advantage of Wake’s poor offensive line. Duke comes in at just 11th in the ACC with 17 sacks.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wake Forest and Duke match up statistically:

Wake Forest Offense vs Duke Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	93	77
Line Yards	109	92
Pass Success	91	8
Havoc	120	34
Finishing Drives	122	26
Quality Drives	126	10

Duke Offense vs Wake Forest Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	80	35
Line Yards	78	61
Pass Success	51	108
Havoc	31	55
Finishing Drives	51	70
Quality Drives	56	50

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	42	114
PFF Coverage	33	10
Special Teams SP+	58	57
Middle 8	48	49
Seconds per Play	25.5 (46)	29.3 (106)
Rush Rate	59.7% (41)	57.5% (31)

Neither of these teams did much in October to inspire any sort of confidence going forward. Wake has struggled against ACC defenses, while the injuries on Duke’s offense just keep piling up.

Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, the short week isn’t going to help Leonard’s ankle just five days after facing a ton of pressure against Louisville.

Duke’s defense isn’t spectacular, but it’s fantastic at limiting explosive plays, which will force a run-heavy Wake Forest offense to slowly matriculate the ball down the field.

The total has gone under in five of Wake’s last six games, and I think we’re headed there again against Duke.