Oregon State vs Washington Prediction, Pick, Odds | College Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Nov. 18)
Ali Gradischer/Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon State running back Damien Martinez.
- The Washington Huskies head to Corvallis to face the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday.
- Washington enters as a -1 favorite, according to updated odds at BetMGM, but both sides have enjoyed time as the favorite this week.
- Read on for Collin Wilson's full Washington vs Oregon State betting preview and prediction.
Oregon State vs Washington Prediction, Pick, Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 62.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 62.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
It's time to take a look at the Oregon State vs Washington Prediction, Pick, Odds and find a college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 18.
The Pac-12 Conference is thriving in its last season of existence, highlighted by a pair of teams that have a shot at the College Football Playoff.
One of those teams is the Washington Huskies, who are 10-0 and need a conference championship to return to the playoff for the first time since 2016.
The Huskies pulled away from Utah in a home game that infuriated investors of the home team last week.
Nothing like losing a bet because a guy drops the football before crossing the goal line 😅
This BBOC caller had enough of Washington on Saturday so he called in to let it all out ⤵️
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 13, 2023
Looking to play the role of conference spoiler is Oregon State, which hopes to knock off Washington and Oregon in back-to-back weeks.
If the Beavers can pull off the upsets and Arizona takes a loss, Oregon State will be packing for Las Vegas and a shot at the conference championship.
The good news for the Beavers is that they possess the best home-field advantage of the decade, entering this game 16-1 against the spread at home since the 2021 season.
The Huskies hit a speed bump on the path to an undefeated record, failing to score a touchdown against Arizona State in Week 8. Since then, Washington has returned to offensive domination, averaging 43 points per game with wins over Utah, USC and Stanford.
Running back Dillon Johnson was crucial in the victory over USC, posting 256 yards rushing and four touchdowns before adding another 104 yards and a score against Utah in Week 11.
Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. continues to torment defenses, as his Heisman campaign includes more than 3,500 yards passing with 28 passing touchdowns.
Michael Penix Jr. 🎯 Rome Odunzepic.twitter.com/fulajaJfPO
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 11, 2023
In the absence of slot receiver Jalen McMillan, wideout Rome Odunze has dominated opposing cornerbacks. A challenger for the Biletnikoff Award, Odunze has racked up 1,100 yards receiving and nine touchdowns while averaging an electric 2.9 yards per route run.
In both standard and passing downs from any field position, this is one of the best offenses in the running for a national title.
The issues for head coach Kalen DeBoer all reside on the defensive side of the ball.
The Huskies rank 131st in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, coming in near dead last in rush explosives allowed.
Washington consistently struggles with opposing offenses that like to run the ball, allowing run concepts such as inside zone, outside zone and man run blocking to create a high number of explosives.
Oregon State started its homestead running circles around Stanford in Week 11. The Beavers scored 62 points thanks to an average of 7.3 yards per play on 39 rushing attempts.
Most college football teams average a single methodical drive (10 plays or more) and explosive drive (an average of 10 yards per play or more). Oregon State posted six explosive drives and two methodical drives in 13 total possessions against Stanford, so the offense is clicking on all cylinders heading into this Week 12 showdown.
YOU’VE GOTTA BE KIDDING ME 🤯@DJUiagalelei x @JermaineTerryIIpic.twitter.com/pD9SJ45hnp
— Oregon State Football (@BeaverFootball) November 11, 2023
Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is having the best season of his four-year career, generating the highest big-time throw rate and best average depth of target of his career.
The Clemson transfer had previously posted 38 combined fumbles and interceptions in seasons past, but that number has dropped to just six in 2023.
The quarterback is not alone in doing damage, as running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick both average 3.8 yards after contact.
No matter the run concept, from inside zone to outside zone, the Beavers are annihilating the competition on the ground.
Head coach Jonathan Smith is sure to be the most coveted coach in the upcoming carousel, but defensive issues continue to plague Oregon State.
The Beavers' biggest issue is missed tackles, ranking 132nd in tackle grading, per PFF.
However, the nickel defense does send blitz on 35% of snaps, adding to a Defensive Havoc rank of ninth nationally.
If Oregon State is not meeting opponents in the backfield, the opposing offense has a chance to score against a Beavers unit that ranks 133rd in broken tackles allowed.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington and Oregon State match up statistically:
Washington Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 38 |
Oregon State Offense vs. Washington Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 131 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 46 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 132 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 26 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 18 | 16 |
| Middle 8 | 14 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (75) | 29.2 (106) |
| Rush Rate | 41.2% (123) | 56.2% (46) |
Washington vs Oregon State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Huskies aren't expected to provide any resistance against Oregon State's dominant rush attack. The Beavers rank second in Offensive Rushing Success Rate, trailing only LSU in first-down efficiency.
Utah was the last offense to face the Huskies, posting nearly double the national average in Success Rate on 27 rushing attempts.
The Washington defense ranks 115th in red-zone rushing touchdowns allowed, per SportSource Analytics. Oregon State's ground game is second nationally in red-zone touchdowns, making this a significant challenge for Washington defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell.
There are plenty of offensive advantages for the undefeated Huskies, centering on the ability to shake defenders in an open field. Washington sits just 63rd in creating missed tackles, but it's the biggest gap in the Oregon State defense.
The Beavers are also vulnerable against the rush, particularly against the inside zone attack Washington will implement with Johnson. The difference is Oregon State can defend the red zone, ranking top-25 in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Action Network projects this game as a pick'em, as steam hit the market early on Oregon State. Because of the Huskies' defensive rush statistics, there will be a sharp appetite for Oregon State this week.
The Washington passing attack should get what it wants against a Beavers secondary that has struggled at cornerback, but Mother Nature could play a role. Precipitation and light wind are expected at kickoff, which could potentially assist Oregon State and its poor tackling.
The best bet is to go with the team that has the ability to run the ball, control the clock and limit possessions for the opposing offense.
With one of the best ground attacks in the nation, look for Oregon State to shake up the Pac-12 and the College Football Playoff rankings.
Pick: Oregon State -2 · Oregon State ML -130 or Better
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