Washington-Utah Betting Guide: Weather Will Make Offenses One-Dimensional
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Wittingham and Chris Petersen
Washington at Utah Betting Odds
- Odds: Washington -5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
A typical Pac-12 game starting in the late hours of a college football Saturday is full of points. #Pac12AfterDark, if you will.
This one might look a little different. With wind expected to whip through Rice-Eccles Stadium throughout the night, Washington and Utah have an unusually low total.
Utah’s offense hasn’t gotten going through two games, while Washington lost a tough game to Auburn in its opener and dominated North Dakota last week.
Last season, Jake Browning did light up the Utah defense in a 33-30 win. He threw for 354 yards and two touchdowns on 26-of-35 passing.
Market Moves for Washington-Utah
With early bets coming on Washington, this line was inching toward the Huskies until it reached the key number of 7. Sharps then hit Utah as a touchdown underdog, and have brought this line back to +5. As it stands now, Washington is still receiving the majority of both bets and dollars, at 66% and 62%, respectively.
The total has drawn a whopping 82% of bets and 96% of dollars to the under, causing it to drop 1.5 points.
Key Injuries for Washington-Utah
- Starting LT Trey Adams (Washington) — Out for Season
- Starting LB DJ Beavers (Washington) — Questionable
- Starting center Nick Harris (Washington) — Questionable
- Starting punter Joel Whitford (Washington) — Questionable
The injury to center Nick Harris is potentially massive. The Washington offensive line was one of the strongest units in the conference (and country) coming into the season.
But after the Huskies lost star LT Trey Adams for the year, Harris’ absence in this game would be a huge blow for Washington.
By John Ewing
It won’t get hit by Hurricane Florence, but Salt Lake City is expected to get 15-20 mph winds around game time.
In games with winds of 10 mph or stronger, the under is 992-836-24 (54%) since 2005. With more than 20 mph winds, the under has hit at a 64.3% clip.
This over/under has also decreased from 48 to 47.
When the over/under decreases in windy games, it has been even more profitable to bet the under: 507-403-13 (56%), +80.14 units.
Trends to Know
By Evan Abrams
Since Chris Petersen took over as head coach of Boise State in 2006, he is one of only 10 head coaches to profit 10 or more units on the road (+10.5 units) for bettors.
When Petersen is listed as a road favorite, his teams are 31-21 ATS (+8.9 units), making him the most profitable FBS coach in the spot since 2006.
Special Teams Mismatch
You can almost say there’s a special teams mismatch any time a team faces Utah, and that’s certainly the case in this game — especially since Washington’s starting punter is injured and may not play.
If so, Washington will be trotting out a walk on, while the Utes will trot out 2016 Ray Guy award winner Mitch Wishnowsky.
Plus, Utah has 2017 Lou Groza Award winner Matt Gay at kicker, while Washington has a redshirt freshman (Peyton Henry) who looked shaky at Auburn.
Chris Petersen is anecdotally one of the best coaches at preparation and making halftime adjustments, but it also shows in the data.
Washington has ranked top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the third quarter in each of the last three years, per Football Study Hall. The Huskies have been top 25 on both sides of the ball in the first quarter in each of the last two years, as well. They don’t even come close to that feat in the second or fourth.
Bets to Watch
By Ken Barkley
The value of points here really can’t be overstated. Not only is the weather looking particularly uncooperative (wind gusts up to 20 mph could be in play), but Utah’s defense has been one of the surprises this early in the season.
The Utes are currently No. 1 in defensive S&P+, though playing an FCS team and Northern Illinois will certainly help that (even if S&P+ is opponent adjusted). But I’m not sure how either team can expect to move the ball with frequency in this game.
Washington would be best served to rely on Myles Gaskin anyway, and now considering the wind, it may have no choice. With tackle Trey Adams out for the season and center Nick Harris appearing on the injury report as well, can Washington really be productive on the ground in this game?
Meanwhile, Utah led NIU just 10-6 late in the fourth before a pick six to seal the win. The offense never got going.
The total is being set with a low-scoring game in mind, but I still think there’s some value on the under here considering how one-dimensional these offenses may become.
In terms of the spread, if it ever got to Washington -7, I would be interested in Utah.