2024 National Championship Player Props & Picks: Our Top Bets for Jack Westover, JJ McCarthy & Ja’Lynn Polk
John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk.
- The last game of the college football season takes place Monday when Washington battles Michigan in the National Championship.
- That means some of the sport's biggest stars will be on the field, giving us some player prop opportunities.
- Read on for all four of our top player props for the National Championship.
2024 National Championship Player Prop Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
When the College Football Playoff National Championship takes place, there's always one guarantee: Some of the sport's best players will be taking the field.
That'll be the case Monday when Washington takes on Michigan, as we'll see plenty of offense from among Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum.
Our college football writers came through with four player props for Monday's national title game, including a few picks for some of the game's best players.
Read on for all four player props for Monday's National Championship below.
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Washington vs. Michigan
Even if you lived under a rock all season and only watched Washington beat Texas last week, you are acutely aware of one thing: Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies' passing offense is electric.
With Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan, I’d put Washington’s receiving trio over just about any other in the nation. Odunze and Polk are both top-20 in the nation in receiving yards, with the former ranking third after his 125-yard performance against the Longhorns.
That sets this prop up perfectly. Michigan has an excellent passing defense that ranks second in the nation, but the Wolverines’ top cornerback, Will Johnson, will be focused on slowing Washington’s leading receiver, Odunze. That gives Polk some potentially favorable matchups.
Polk has recorded at least 52 receiving yards in all but one game this season and has picked up at least five receptions in all but two. He’s top-11 in the country in receptions of 20-plus and 30-plus yards in length, so he’s always a threat to pick up a big chunk of this prop at any given time.
Then there’s the status of running back Dillon Johnson.
He’s expected to play against the Wolverines after reaggravating an injury versus Texas, but he’s not 100%. Washington doesn’t have much depth behind him to continue running the ball. That means more of Penix and the Huskies' passing attack.
Michigan’s passing defense is great against plodding Big Ten offenses and an Alabama quarterback whose strength is running the ball, but it hasn’t been stretched this thin against so many talented receivers.
Pick: Polk Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 51.5)
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By Greg Liodice
By now, I think the whole world is aware of what Washington can do when it airs out the football.
Michael Penix Jr.’s accuracy is unmatched, and the three-headed monster of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan can cause problems for any secondary.
In Monday's National Championship, it looks like Washington faces its toughest challenge yet. Michigan’s front line caused an unlimited number of problems for Alabama in the Rose Bowl, so who’s to say that won’t be the case this week? Well, the difference is the offensive line.
Bama dealt with many problems on its O-line all season, and Michigan took advantage of that, sacking Jalen Milroe four times on his first five dropbacks.
It will be a different story this time around, as Washington’s O-line is leaps and bounds better than Alabama's. The Huskies won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, which is awarded to the nation’s best offensive line, after giving up only 11 sacks in 13 games and 46 tackles for loss.
So, how does that apply to Ja’Lynn Polk's performance?
Well, with the bolstered offensive line, Penix will have plenty of time to wait it out and make the perfect pass to his elite receivers. Michigan’s secondary will have its hands full and will probably overcorrect its defense.
Odunze is usually the wideout to cause the most damage, but Polk is the No. 2. I expect him to have plenty of one-on-one opportunities. He can create separation with the best of them, and Penix always knows how to perfectly place the football, which is why I see him posting over 50.5 receiving yards.
Pick: Polk Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 57.5)
When it comes to games of this magnitude, sometimes it’s as simple as whether or not the player is built for the stage. J.J. McCarthy has proven time and again that he can move the ball through the air under the bright lights when called upon.
Yes, there were games this year against the likes of Minnesota and Nebraska where McCarthy’s passing output was minimal.
It wasn’t necessary for him to be slinging it left and right in those matchups.
In a national title game where Washington is bound to put its fair share of points on the board, McCarthy will once again be asked to take some shots downfield against a secondary that can surrender big plays.
I fully expect him to deliver the ball in the right spots in those moments and for Michigan to have a productive night offensively as a result.
The Wolverines will lean on their ground game at times, but McCarthy will be throwing it plenty.
I expect him to comfortably eclipse 200 yards through the air.
Pick: McCarthy Over 195.5 Passing Yards (Play to 200)
Michigan made life miserable for Jalen Milroe in the Rose Bowl, and it'll aim to replicate that performance on Monday night against Washington. The Wolverines enter in the top five in both pressure rate and Defensive Line Havoc Rate.
This means that Michael Penix Jr. and his Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line need to be in sync from the get-go.
Given Penix’s mobility limitations, I don’t foresee many designed rollouts or Penix opting to throw on the run outside the pocket as a sustained game plan. What I do foresee is more throws to his safety blanket, tight end Jack Westover.
Since Oct. 28, Westover has had four games with five or more targets. And he’s coming off of a six-catch, 59-yard performance against Texas. He rewarded his quarterback's confidence in him time after time against the Longhorns.
Given Michigan’s stellar play at cornerback and investment in limiting big plays from Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk, there will be ample opportunities for Westover to find open space in the middle of the field.
Down the stretch, this was exactly how teams were coping with Michigan’s pressure and coverage chops on the perimeter. Ohio State targeted tight end Cade Stover six times (three receptions, 42 yards) against the Wolverines, and Maryland also targeted tight end Corey Dyches plenty in a near upset of Michigan later in the regular season.
And if you combine Penn State’s top two tight ends, Tyler Warren and Theo Johnson, the Nittany Lions threw to their big pass-catchers eight times, resulting in 35 yards.
Given the potential for Washington to abandon the run, Michigan’s pass rush, and Penix’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly, I feel confident Westover will receive at least five targets in this one. I would play Westover’s receiving over up to 34.5 yards.
Pick: Westover Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
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