Wilson: Why I Bet BC vs. Syracuse Right Away in Week 10
Greg M. Cooper-USA Today Sports. Pictured: A.J. Dillon.
- Using his projected spreads for Week 10, Collin Wilson has identified one Week 10 matchup worth an early bet.
- See how he played Boston College vs. Syracuse.
The Week 9 openers from Circa Sportsbook could be best described as volatile. Michigan opened at -4 and took on nothing but Notre Dame money last Saturday, enough to move the number to the Irish -1. TCU opened -2.5 at the Vegas shop, taking nothing but Longhorns money and flipping the favorite to Texas. In both cases, oddsmakers at Circa Sports had the right read.
Openers for Week 10 have seen less movement. Air Force moved from -13.5 to -15 in their service academy game with Army. An opener of 45 on the total is sure to attract plenty of Under attention this week. A Florida-Georgia opener of 6.5 has moved to 4 with the Bulldogs as the favorite as of Sunday night.
Per the Action Network’s power ratings, the Gators should be a touchdown underdog. There should be a tug of war between a field goal and 6.5 for much of the week.
As I always do on Sundays, I used our power ratings to bet a few openers, including one game I’ll detail more below.
Let’s take a look at one of my favorite early bets of the week. Stay tuned for much more betting coverage in the run-up to Saturday.
All odds as of Sunday evening. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
College Football Games I Bet Early and Projected Spreads
Note: A negative number indicates the home team is favored by that many points; inverse for a positive number.
Boston College at Syracuse (-2.5)
12 p.m. ET | ACC Network
The Orange have been a mess in October. In five games against Power Five teams, Syracuse has lost them all. In Week 9, Florida State defeated the Orange thanks to running back Cam Akers scoring four touchdowns. Defending the rush has been an issue for Syracuse, giving up 241 yards to Florida State, 145 yards to Pitt and 201 to Western Michigan.
Just like the Seminoles, Boston College averages 77 plays per game and relies heavily on the rushing game. The Eagles have always had a proven running back in AJ Dillon, but the emergence of David Bailey gives Boston College two dynamic rushers at 240-plus pounds.
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 19, 2019
Syracuse season total rushing defense does have a top-40 rank in rushing statistics such as Line Yards and Stuff Rate, but those games include Liberty and Holy Cross. The Orange are outside the top 100 in rushing touchdowns allowed, with an opponent rushing yards per attempt of 4.3. The Boston College backfield should have an outstanding day against the Syracuse defensive front.
The Action Network havoc ratings update for Week 10 will have Boston College listed at 10th in havoc allowed. With only 36 tackles for loss allowed, the Eagles offensive line has kept opposing defenders out of the Boston College backfield. The unit has a rank in the top 20 in Stuff Rate and Power Success,
The Syracuse defense will struggle to stop the Eagles rush, and the Orange offense hasn’t been great either . Syracuse ranks outside the top 100 in red zone points per attempt, penalty yards and dead last in sacks. Our Action Network power ratings see this game as a pick ’em. I was able to get better than +2.5 in the early openers, but this is worth a play at any number that has Boston College as an underdog.
The Pick: Boston College +2.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]