Senate races 2026 predictions are live on Polymarket for the closest contests on Election Day, giving traders a way to follow the battle for control of the chamber as results come in tonight.
Eligible new users can claim the Polymarket promo codeACTION, make a $10 deposit and receive a $25 trading bonus before the first Senate results are reported.
The markets cover seven of the most closely watched races in this year's midterm elections, with prices moving alongside polling, turnout and Election Day results. Our live midterm elections tracker follows the latest race calls, polls and forecasts throughout the night.
Is Polymarket Legal for Senate Race Trading?
Yes, in most states. Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and the Polymarket promo code ACTION works for new users in these states:
AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY.
Political trading isn't open everywhere. Nevada blocks Polymarket by court order, and a handful of other states have restricted or contested access. Check our political trading guide for the latest status in your state.
How to Claim the Polymarket Bonus Today
- Sign up for Polymarket and enter the promo code ACTION.
- Finish the registration steps in the app.
- Deposit $10 to earn the $25 trading bonus.
- Place your first trade in any Senate market.
Our Polymarket review covers fees and features before you fund the account.
Senate Races 2026 Predictions: The 7 Closest Races on Polymarket
These are the seven races in Polymarket's Build Your Map feature. Prices move all day, so check each market before you trade. Select a race name for our full page on it.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Polymarket Label | Results Expected (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Brown 72% | Husted 30% | Lean D | 7:30 PM |
| Texas | Talarico 74% | Paxton 27% | Lean D | 8 PM |
| Kansas | Hamilton 63% | Marshall 38% | Lean D | 8 PM |
| Maine | Troy Jackson 73% | Collins 28% | Lean D | 8 PM |
| Michigan | El-Sayed 78% | Rogers 23% | Likely D | 8 PM |
| Iowa | Turek 52% | Hinson 49% | Tossup | 9 PM |
| Alaska | Peltola 72% | Sullivan 30% | Lean D | 12 AM (Nov. 4) |
What the Prices and Timing Show
Four of the seven races report together. Texas, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan all come in at 8 PM ET, so four prices can move at once tonight.
Ohio comes first at 7:30 PM ET, Iowa follows at 9 PM ET, and Alaska closes the night. Here's how Senate race 2026 predictions line up on the clock.
Iowa is the only race Polymarket labels a tossup, with the two sides priced within a few cents. On Monday, the Democratic price rose 7 points in Iowa and Michigan and 4 in Maine.
The control market is separate from these races. Polymarket US prices Democrats at 73% and Republicans at 28% to win the Senate. Prices aren't polls, so compare markets with polling.
How Polymarket Prices and Payouts Work
Each price is a cost per share in cents. A 72% price means 72¢, and a winning share pays $1. You can sell before a market resolves, and each market lists its own close time.
In the Ohio and Iowa markets, the Democratic side settles to Yes if that party's nominee wins, using results from government authorities. Payouts usually come within 25 minutes of a market closing.
For more on reliability, read how accurate prediction markets are.
How Build Your Map Works
Build Your Map turns Senate races 2026 predictions into one slip. It starts with the price leader in each of the seven races, and you can swap any pick before you confirm.
Here's our look at the Polymarket Combos for the 7 closest Senate races.
Polymarket isn't the only app with midterm markets. See the best prediction market apps to compare your options.
If you like our midterm coverage, sign up on Polymarket to claim the bonus and start trading.
Claim the Polymarket Bonus Before Results Start
Sign up with the promo code ACTION, make a $10 deposit, and claim the $25 trading bonus before the first results arrive tonight. Results start at 7:30 PM ET and run past midnight, so set up the account early.
Want to see more offers? Compare the best prediction market promos for 2026 Senate race predictions and beyond.
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