Falcons vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

There may be some value on the receiving yards prop for David Moore. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 13.34 receiving yards, and the oddsmakers are implying 22.99. The model believes there is a 71% chance he records fewer than 16.5 receiving yards. If you can get the under at -115 or better, there is some great value here. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

WR3 w/ Leggette out. 6’4” RZ target

Projection: -183. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

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This feels like a sell-high spot after Young threw for 328 yards last week, with 217 of those coming in the second half during a pass-heavy comeback script. That’s been the Panthers’ theme so far, trailing for a league-high 52 minutes per game. They’re 5-point underdogs again here, but there’s at least a chance they keep this one closer (or even play with a rare lead) which would be the best outcome for this under. If they cover, it’s likely because the run game finally showed up. Even if they fall behind, I don’t expect the same level of efficiency against a Falcons defense that looks much improved. Losing AJ Terrell hurts, but Atlanta’s upgraded pass rush with two first-round picks has made this a tough matchup for QBs. Young is also unlikely to benefit from the extreme play volume Carolina has seen so far, as they’re averaging 10 more plays per game than last year. Some regression there should pull back his yardage totals. Overall, this is simply a spot to fade last week’s spike game. I project Young closer to 197.5 yards, so we’ve got enough value to grab the under.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Ja'Tavion Sanders under 2.5 rec (+125 Bet365) Both last year and this year so far, Sanders' target share and targets per route run fall off a cliff when he faces single-high coverage as opposed to two-high coverage 12.3% vs. 5.3% target share and 0.21 to 0.09 TPRR last year (two vs. single) 16.3% vs. 9.8% target share and 0.22 vs 0.14 TPRR this year (two vs. single) The targets are also longer, with an average depth of 9.8 (single) to 8.1 (two) this year and 6.6 vs 5.8 last year, meaning catch rates will be lower on those targets I say all this because the Falcons have played single-high coverage at the 3rd highest rate so far this year, after CAR faced ARI and JAX who have both bottom-10 in single-high rates CAR hopefully is more competitive in this game, as they've played 142 of 146 offensive snaps while trailing, leading to 90 Bryce Young pass attempts through two games. Bryce should be handing it off more frequently this weekend. Through two weeks, ATL has conceded the fewest targets to TEs (6) while allowing just 1 catch. Projecting 2.45 with 55.5% chance of staying under, making +125 solid value

Oh you better believe it's going to feel gross betting some of these Kitchen Sink teams. And that's exactly the point — sometimes as a bettor, you have to make a bet that doesn't make any sense, sometimes even to yourself. I can make a much easier case for the Falcons. Carolina's lone real offensive strength was its line, now missing Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt with Ikem Ekwonu also banged up, and Atlanta's improved pass rush looked fearsome against an equally-injured Minnesota line on Sunday night. The Panthers offense ranks near worst in many offensive metrics, and its defense was just as bad last year, especially against the run — dangerous against Atlanta. That's why this line rose all week, from Falcons -2.5 on Sunday morning all the way to -6.5 at one point. That's a huge swing — across the key number of three and another at six — and it's too far and represents overconfidence in this young Atlanta team. Even after sweeping upgrades to the Falcons after an impressive win, I still have this number pretty close to where it was Sunday, about -3. Are we sure the Falcons have an elite defense, just like that? Atlanta ranks second by Defensive DVOA through two games, but it would be stunning to see the Falcons finish anywhere near that high. This is a team starting third- and fourth-round rookies in its secondary, which will be without top corner A.J. Terrell this week. That could be a problem against Panthers rookie WR Tet McMillan who already looks like a star after hitting 100 yards last week. It's also a good reminder to zoom out past these two weeks. Division rivalries are tough, and these teams have split the season series five consecutive seasons, with seven of those 10 games finishing within one score. That would likely do the trick for a cover here! But look, more than anything else, this is just trusting the Week 3 Kitchen Sink trends and betting the number. This is my highest-rated Kitchen Sink spot of 2025 because of so many sub-trends within the trend. Kitchen Sink teams in division games are 75% ATS, and they're also 75% ATS with a total under 44 and 71% ATS if the opponent has scored under 27 both its games. Atlanta's offense isn't putting up big numbers, and lower-scoring games are easier to cover, even through the backdoor. Kitchen Sink teams are also 70% ATS against 1-1 opponents and 68% for public sides, with the Panthers getting about two-thirds of the bets. I don't like backing the Panthers either. It's gross! And that's exactly why we have to do it.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/mwsC0lYENWb

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