Bengals vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Predictions - October 11, 2026

This feels like a pretty clear overreaction to what happened last week. Going into that game, it was pretty clear that Miami was going to use a committee with Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright after De'Von Achane went down, but the bigger question was how the workload would actually be split. Despite Gordon finishing with the huge game, Wright was the one who started. The two rotated pretty heavily over the first five drives, with Wright playing 10 snaps to Gordon's 8 and actually getting more carries. It wasn't until after halftime that Gordon separated himself, breaking a 53-yard run. From that point on, Gordon dominated the second-half snaps, playing 14 compared to just 2 for Wright. I don't think we should assume that second-half workload is the new baseline. Jeff Hafley specifically talked about wanting to get Wright more involved this week, saying, “Wright didn't get many attempts last week. I'm excited to see him, going forward. He's going to. I thought he had a good week and we'll see what he can do this week with more plays.” That's pretty important coachspeak when we're trying to figure out whether Gordon's workload is actually consolidated. The matchup itself isn't necessarily the biggest reason I'm betting the under, but I still think Cincinnati has an advantage in the trenches. More importantly, the Bengals are 6.5-point favorites, which is a pretty significant concern for Miami's rushing volume. The Dolphins have averaged just 11.5 points per game through four weeks, so I'm not expecting a ton of sustained drives in a game where they're likely chasing points. That's ultimately why I'm more interested in Gordon under than Wright over. I don't need to project Wright for some massive workload. I just need Gordon's workload to be less than what the market is pricing after one explosive second half. If Wright gets back to the kind of rotation we saw early in the Minnesota game and Miami spends more of this game playing from behind, Gordon has a pretty difficult path to 46 rushing yards. @everyone This feels like a pretty clear overreaction to what happened last week. Going into that game, it was pretty clear that Miami was going to use a committee with Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright after De'Von Achane went down, but the bigger question was how the workload would actually be split. Despite Gordon finishing with the huge game, Wright was the one who started. The two rotated pretty heavily over the first five drives, with Wright playing 10 snaps to Gordon's 8 and actually getting more carries. It wasn't until after halftime that Gordon separated himself, breaking a 53-yard run. From that point on, Gordon dominated the second-half snaps, playing 14 compared to just 2 for Wright. I don't think we should assume that second-half workload is the new baseline. Jeff Hafley specifically talked about wanting to get Wright more involved this week, saying, “Wright didn't get many attempts last week. I'm excited to see him, going forward. He's going to. I thought he had a good week and we'll see what he can do this week with more plays.” That's pretty important coachspeak when we're trying to figure out whether Gordon's workload is actually consolidated. The matchup itself isn't necessarily the biggest reason I'm betting the under, but I still think Cincinnati has an advantage in the trenches. More importantly, the Bengals are 6.5-point favorites, which is a pretty significant concern for Miami's rushing volume. The Dolphins have averaged just 11.5 points per game through four weeks, so I'm not expecting a ton of sustained drives in a game where they're likely chasing points. That's ultimately why I'm more interested in Gordon under than Wright over. I don't need to project Wright for some massive workload. I just need Gordon's workload to be less than what the market is pricing after one explosive second half. If Wright gets back to the kind of rotation we saw early in the Minnesota game and Miami spends more of this game playing from behind, Gordon has a pretty difficult path to 46 rushing yards.

Windy unders, neither team made postseason Overall: 318-204-4,61% (ROI:18%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:92%) #TSA

There is a value opportunity on Tanner Hudson's touchdowns prop. THE BLITZ is projecting 0.11 touchdowns for him with a 12% chance that he exceeds 0.5 touchdowns. If you can get the over at +1300 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least +836. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/D-VSFIRKqec?is=hMOaINyXZnMG7eG3

@gneiffer07 https://www.youtube.com/live/_2qcnw1iubI?is=6NkNi3QWzF0NgWwS