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Our football staff — Stuckey, Doug Kezirian, and Dylan Wilkerson — is focused on eight of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 5 on October 11.
First, we'll target Raiders vs. Patriots and Colts vs. Steelers in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for 49ers vs. Seahawks and Lions vs. Cardinals. We also have picks for Browns vs. Jets, Bengals vs. Dolphins, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL prediction market picks and top trades for the Week 5 Sunday slate.
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NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 5
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Contract prices and trade recommendations reflect the best available prices across platforms at publication. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Raiders vs Patriots
By Stuckey
This is the ultimate sell-high spot on the Raiders.
Vegas is currently the only 4-0 against the spread (ATS) team in the entire league, and while head coach Klint Kubiak has done an exceptional job scheming up this offense for Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers, regression is likely looming.
The Raiders are traveling all the way across the country following an emotional loss to the Chiefs. More importantly, their defensive metrics are being masked by unsustainable turnover luck.
The Raiders lead the NFL with nine takeaways, which has hidden the fact that their defense is lacking in top-tier talent. We have already seen them get carved up by the Chiefs and the Saints earlier this year.
On the flip side, you have a New England team leading the league in giveaways with 10. If that turnover variance normalizes, the Patriots should have a sizable advantage at home.
Drake Maye finally seemed to get his mental confidence back last week, delivering a strong performance in a huge win over Buffalo. His footwork looked better, and he operated the offense with legitimate conviction instead of playing scared.
We might still be a little bit too low on the Patriots offense, which has had to navigate a brutal schedule against the Jaguars, Steelers, Seahawks, and Bills.
The Patriots won this exact matchup last year, and they are poised to replicate that success against a Raiders team due for a harsh reality check.
Pick: Buy YES on Patriots to win by over 3.5 points (trading near 49¢)
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Bengals vs Dolphins
I remain fascinated by the Dolphins, and I am inclined to take the points with them as home underdogs.
Yes, they have all the glaring warning signs of being one of the worst rosters we have ever seen, especially after losing De'Von Achane for the year, but you have to look closely at their schedule. Every team they have played so far is undefeated, with the sole exception of the Raiders (who only lost to another one of Miami's opponents).
Despite the massive talent discrepancy, the Dolphins are passing the smell test in terms of pure effort — they haven't quit on the season, and they are playing hard. They even managed to find the end zone last week when a team like the Vikings couldn't.
This handicap ultimately comes down to the injury report and the situational spot.
The Bengals are dealing with massive question marks at wide receiver, with Tee Higgins limited in practice and Ja'Marr Chase holding maybe a 30% chance to play due to a concussion. Joe Burrow has never played a game with both of them sidelined.
If Cincinnati is forced to play without its top weapons — and with Andrei Iosivas already on IR — the offense is likely going to grind to a halt against a Miami run defense that is the genuine strength of the team.
The Bengals also have their bye week on deck. This has all the makings of a classic Zac Taylor letdown spot where a team looks ahead to their vacation, flies down to the 90-degree Florida humidity, and just tries to get in and get out without exerting maximum effort.
I will gladly take the points, especially if Chase and Higgins are ruled out (though both did practice on Friday so that's worth monitoring).
From a prop perspective, keep a close eye on Mike Gesicki. T.J. Hockenson just caught 13 passes on 13 targets against the Dolphins last week so this could be a huge volume game for the Bengals tight end.
Pick: Buy NO on Bengals to win by over 6.5 points (trading near 48¢)
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Browns vs Jets
By Stuckey
The buy-low, sell-high principles that guide my handicapping are screaming at me to play the Jets in this spot, even though the injury report is genuinely terrifying.
I actively want to sell the Browns because their defense is simply not the same dominant unit away from home, and Deshaun Watson remains a liability under center.
Watson is purely dinking and dunking right now — refusing to push the ball vertically down the field — and the Browns are incapable of running the football. That is a crucial mismatch because defending the run has been the Jets' biggest weakness this season.
Offensively, the Jets are going to see a heavy dose of man coverage from Cleveland, and Geno Smith has historically been far more efficient against man-to-man looks than zone.
The only terrifying part of this handicap is the situational rest discrepancy.
The Jets defense was on the field for an exhausting 90 plays against the Bears last week and didn't even practice on Wednesday, while the Browns enter this game with an extended rest advantage after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 4.
New York's offensive weapons are depleted: Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell have been ruled out. However, this is a prime letdown spot for a Browns team flying high after a big win over the Steelers with the Ravens on deck next week.
Meanwhile, the Jets are returning home desperate for a win on the heels of two frustrating road losses to Detroit and Chicago.
Getting the Jets -1.5 at home is simply too cheap to pass up against an untrustworthy Cleveland squad.
Pick: Buy YES on Jets to win by over 1.5 points (trading near 54¢)
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Texans vs Titans
There are paths for this over to get home.
I look at this Texans defense — that has allowed the second-most receiving yards and second-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season — and I am confident that Cam Ward can have success throwing to Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate.
The Texans have also allowed the third-most passing yards. Their run defense has been strong, which tells me Tennessee will play more towards their passing game.
On offense, the Texans have played very fast, averaging nearly 70 offensive snaps per game, so there are a lot of variables that make me think this game is going over.
Pick: YES on Over 37.5 total points (trading near 53¢)
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Colts vs Steelers
By Doug Kezirian
Some respected sharps out in Vegas stepped in and bought the Over 44.5 in this matchup, and I am aligned with that side.
The Colts are in a brutal situational spot returning to the states after a grueling London trip, but their defense is the actual root of the problem.
Indianapolis currently ranks 30th in the NFL in organic pressure rate. That is an absolute nightmare scenario when facing Aaron Rodgers.
While Rodgers struggles against interior pressure at this stage of his career, he is still dangerous and efficient when kept clean. With the Colts unable to generate much of a pass rush, Rodgers is going to sit back and pick apart the middle of the field using heavy personnel groupings.
On the flip side of the ball, the Steelers are coming off an extended rest advantage, but their secondary is dealing with key injuries that make them vulnerable to giving up points. Jamel Dean's status is questionable, and star cornerback Jalen Ramsey is nursing a wrist injury.
Daniel Jones has struggled immensely under pressure this season, holding onto the ball with the lowest air yards in the league, but Pittsburgh's mounting defensive injuries will open up enough clean throwing windows for the Colts to successfully move the chains and contribute to the total.
This game sets up beautifully for both offenses to find paths of least resistance against compromised defensive units. With the total sitting under 45 in a game where both quarterbacks should have opportunities to string together consistent, methodical drives, I think the Over is the best position on the board.
Pick: YES on Over 43.5 total points (trading near 49¢)
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49ers vs Seahawks
By Dylan Wilkerson
This is more of a play against the 49ers than a play on the Seahawks.
The 49ers won in Week 1 in Australia, which introduced some travel variables we don't see every week. In Week 2, they dominated a bad Dolphins team. In Week 3, they won a close game against Arizona. Last week, the 49ers beat the Broncos to end a three-week home stretch.
Now the Niners will be tested by playing a divisional team in their first game away from home since Week 1.
Brock Purdy has been impressive, but he will face a tall task facing a Seahawks defense that ranks 4th in EPA allowed.
Pick: Buy YES on Seahawks to win by over 2.5 points (trading near 57¢)
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Lions vs Cardinals
By Doug Kezirian
This is a terrible scheduling spot for Detroit.
We are finally starting to see the cracks in the Lions' foundation. Jared Goff playing outdoors — State Farm Field isn't a true dome — is a far more limited quarterback compared to when we see him operating on fast turf inside a pristine dome.
Dan Campbell's reckless game management continues to cost this team wins. His decision to take points off the board by going for it on 4th-and-2 while trailing by 13 points last week was silly and indefensible.
When you pair bad coaching decisions with a defense that is horrendous, you are begging to be upset on the road. Detroit's defense simply cannot stop anything right now.
While Arizona has naturally come back to earth a bit after a stunning Week 1 victory over the Chargers, the Cardinals are live 'dogs in this matchup.
Jacoby Brissett provides a solid, professional floor at quarterback, and his undeniable connection with tight end Trey McBride moves the chains with consistency.
Against a Detroit defense offering very little resistance, Brissett should be able to engineer scoring drives on plenty of possessions.
Arizona is in a prime position to pull off the outright upset at home here.
Pick: Buy YES on Cardinals to win (trading near 30¢)
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