Bengals vs. Vikings Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

Notes: The inactives report is favorable for Vikings with lots of Q guys suiting up.

Projection: 0.86 INTs. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

Hock hasn’t cleared 15 yards in two games, but this sets up as a screaming buy-low. The Vikings have run a league-low 47.5 plays per game, and that’s mostly because JJ McCarthy was sinking drives. With Carson Wentz taking over, the offense should stay on the field longer and create more overall play volume. For Hockenson specifically, it’s a plus since Wentz has leaned on his TEs at a high rate in the past. He’s caught just 4-of-7 targets (57%), about 17% below expected. One miss was a wide-open look for 15+ yards that got batted at the line. Say what you want about Wentz, but he should help clean that up. Hock is also another year removed from ACL surgery, so we should be closer to seeing him at full strength. With Aaron Jones out, Jordan Mason will soak up carries but not command targets the way Jones does, leaving more opportunity for Hock. I project him closer to 40.5 yards with ~59% odds to clear, and the underlying setup makes this more than just a numbers play.. it’s a buy-low spot I want to grab now.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Chase Brown under 2.5 rec (-107 at DK) Browning at QB is not good for Brown in this market, since he throws to his RBs just 15.3% of the time compared to an NFL average in the mid 17% range, and had the sixth-lowest checkdown rate among QBs with 200+ pass attempts back in 2023 when he filled in for an injured Burrow. Browning also scrambles at a higher rate than Burrow, and has been sacked at a higher rate as well which lowers the chances he even attempts a pass on any given dropback. MIN, despite playing with the lead a lot since the start of last year, is below average in target share allowed to RBs and with this game a 2.5-3 point spread, there's a solid chance Cincy is even holding the lead for a chunk of this game, which would lower pass rate expectation. Projecting Brown for 2.35 receptions with a 58% chance to stay under 2.5

Via @wheatonbrando #100notes

Carson Wentz! Jake Browning! Just the game everyone was hoping for! Those two names alone will make this a stay-away for many bettors, but I think they represent opportunity. It's all about how you evaluate these two quarterbacks and what them playing does to your power ratings for each team. I do not want to hear again about how great Jake Browning is or how he's barely even a downgrade from Joe Burrow. Get all the way out of here. Burrow played as well as any QB last season, an upper tip-top echelon of QBs on the level of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes — and we'd just assume those teams' seasons were over, if any of them got hurt. How much credit are we really giving an undrafted dude with seven starts? Sure Browning went 4-3 SU in those starts, but he played with training wheels and still made a ton of mistakes, with seven interceptions and 21 sacks, problems we saw already last week. And those four wins? They came against C.J. Beathard, Gardner Minshew, Nick Mullens, and Jeff Driskel. Congrats. Carson Wentz is the far more talented quarterback, a top-five talent and former MVP candidate. Wentz can make plays with his legs, and he has plenty of arm talent to give Justin Jefferson and company a chance. As bad as J.J. McCarthy has played, Wentz looks like an upgrade for the Vikings, not a downgrade. I moved Minnesota half a point up with Wentz — and dropped the Bengals four or five points. That means this line is way off, and I make it Vikings by just over a touchdown. Don't forget, Kevin O'Connell won 34 games the last three seasons despite over half of those games being started by his backup quarterback. This is the exact spot we've seen the Vikings succeed with any number of names at QB. The Vikings are still a playoff contender, even with someone like Wentz at QB; the Bengals look like a bottom-10 team, with bottom-five blocking, defense, and coaching. Give me Vikings -2.5 (ESPN Bet) if it's available below the key, or Minnesota -3 or best number available.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/mwsC0lYENWb

Carson Wentz is legally my father - only child btw

Absurd price since he +700 or lower everywhere else. In 7 appearances as Bengals quarterback (five starts, two injury replacement for Burrow in 2023 and 2025), he’s scored in 4 of them.

@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/4MflgQZkKWb

@ChrisRaybon 3 https://myaction.app/4MflgQZkKWb

Browning led NFL in completion rate in ‘23 on 275 attempts & went 4-3 SU with 8.2 YPA as starter, including 27-24 win vs MIN (29-42, 324 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT vs Flores’ D) Wentz is 3-8 (27%) SU/ATS with -9.6 ATS diff as starter since Jan 1, 2022 w/ 6.2 YPA, 14.2 team PPG. Wentz has only been w/ MIN for a few weeks + MIN O also w/o WRAddison, RB Jones. MIN could be w/o best 2 O-lineman in LT Darrisaw (Q-ACL recovery), C Kelly (Q-concussion) + Darrisaw’s replacement Skule (Q-concussion) + banged up on defense as well (Van Ginkel/Harrison Smith/Jeff Okudah all Q).