Cowboys vs. Eagles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 5, 2025

Middle opportunity

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The Cowboys’ run game was a major sore spot last season, ranking 28th in early-down rushing EPA/play. The offensive line had an up-and-down year, ranking 19th in run-blocking per PFF. Now, Zack Martin has retired, and Tyler Guyton is dealing with a knee injury leading up to this game. During the first nine weeks of the season (when Dak Prescott was healthy), the Cowboys faced light boxes on 35% of first-down runs, the second-highest rate, and still ranked 30th in YPC (3.6) and 31st in EPA/rush per Sharp Football. Javonte Williams enters as the starting running back this season, and he’s unlikely to solve the team’s run game woes. Unfortunately, repeated lower-body injuries have sapped his explosiveness, and Williams ranked 45th out of 47 running backs in rushing yards over expectation last season. He also ranked 40th in explosive rush rate (2.9%) and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt (2.03) per Fantasy Points Data. This came behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, with the Broncos (first in run-block win rate). The Eagles also had one of the best run defenses in the league last year, ranking 5th in early down EPA/rush allowed and allowing just 1.48 yards before contact per attempt (6th). That run defense could be even better this season with rookie linebacker Jihaad Campbell entering the fold next to Zack Baun. Nakobe Dean is currently on the PUP, so Campbell’s presence is even more important for this opening game. Brian Schottenheimer is now the primary play-caller in Dallas, and his offenses have historically trended pass-heavy. In his last three years as an offensive coordinator, his offenses have ranked in the top ten in total dropbacks per Sharp Football. With Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue also in the mix in a projected trailing game script, I’m fading Williams here. #PlayerProps

✅28 or fewer in 12 of 18 last year despite being DEN RB1, playing 55% of snaps on season. ✅PHI D 4.08 RB YPC, 6th best in ‘24

Annual tail of @Th_Oddsmaker for the opener

The Cowboys enter 2025 with one of the league’s weakest backfields, rolling with Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue. Williams is slated to start Week 1, but I expect Sanders and/or Blue to mix in, and this could quickly turn into a hot-hand approach. That puts pressure on Javonte, who has not looked the same since his 2022 ACL tear, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry over the past two seasons. That was behind a strong Denver offensive line, which makes the move to Dallas an even bigger downgrade for him. Williams has especially struggled creating yards after contact, ranking 55th out of 58 qualified RBs last season with just 2.38 yards after contact per attempt. Now he faces an Eagles defense that allowed the 6th lowest yards before contact (1.14) in 2024. That’s a bad combination for a back who already struggles to generate his own yards. On top of that, Dallas could look for creative ways to spark the run game, including giving KaVontae Turpin more touches as a hybrid WR/RB option. Game script also works against Javonte here. The Cowboys are likely to be trailing, facing an Eagles team that led the league in time of possession last season and is perfectly built to bleed the clock. Fewer plays and a pass-heavy script means fewer rushing opportunities. This is a low-floor situation for Williams in a difficult matchup. I’m projecting him closer to 33.5 yards, with about a 60% chance he stays under 38.5. In this range, every yard is worth roughly 2%.

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Early season divisional underdogs Overall: 130-66-6,66% (ROI:27%)