Jaguars vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2026

Boomer’s Book

I'm taking a small shot on RB Chris Rodriguez at +350 because there have been multiple indications that he's the Jaguars' goal line and short yardage back. We didn't get much red zone rushing volume from Jacksonville in Week 1, but on the one play they did have inside the 5 yard line, Rodriguez was the back on the field. That matters a lot at this price. If he is the guy they turn to when they get inside the 5, I don't think +350 adequately accounts for that role. He also has some standalone value outside of just goal line work, seeing six total carries in the Week 1 blowout. The matchup is another reason to like this shot. Denver just got gashed on the ground by Kansas City, and this should be a much more neutral game script than last week's blowout over Cleveland. I'm not expecting a massive workload, but I am expecting CRod to be the guy in short yardage and goal line situations. At +350, that feels like a great bet for his role on a team with a 21.5 point team total, in a game script that projects to be fairly neutral.

@GDAWG5000 https://www.youtube.com/live/F3qz_cwrUfA?is=ucxqSjndObx0t8wA

Ride em cowboy

THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.05 touchdowns for Quintin Morris. The oddsmakers' implied projection is 0.02 touchdowns, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 7% of the time resulting in a 178% ROI with expected value of $177.98 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least +1596. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Not every Week 2 bet needs to be a buy low or sell high. This is basically a sell low after Sutton went just 2/11/0, but there are enough underlying concerns that I’m still fading him. Pat Bryant carried all the offseason hype into Week 1 with a 32% target rate and team-high 26% first-read rate, and I don’t expect that to disappear. Jaylen Waddle should also be due for some squeaky-wheel treatment after a quiet opener, especially as the big offseason addition. Evan Engram also had a much bigger role than usual, which could be one of the early wrinkles from Davis Webb calling plays. Sutton could absolutely bounce back, but there are a lot of mouths to feed, and I also expect Denver to get the run game going more this week. I’d normally look at Under 3.5 receptions, but with how low Nix’s aDOT was and how willing he was to hit Sutton underneath, I’d rather fade the yardage. I have Sutton’s median closer to 37.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 42.5.

@wheatonbrando https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-betting-playground-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790459648

@gneiffer07 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790412504

This might be the most interesting game of the week. Are the Jaguars really as awesome as they looked against Cleveland? Are the Broncos truly as terrible as they seemed on Monday night in Kansas City? I'm intrigued by Jacksonville, but their offensive line wasn't great, even in a blowout. How does that unit hold up against this Denver pass rush, and can Trevor Lawrence pass on this outstanding secondary? He did just fine late last season in Denver, racking up four TDs. My key read on this game, however, has nothing to do with picking a side. Both of these teams boasted top-five run defenses last year. Opponents simply couldn’t run on them, and eventually they stopped trying. When these two teams met last season, they combined for 95 pass plays and just 41 runs—a 70% pass rate. Denver allowed the sixth-most passing attempts in the league last year, and Jacksonville allowed the most (37.4 per game). Bo Nix threw only 28 times on Monday night, but remember, he also took four sacks and fumbled three times. This offense was still at a 70% pass rate. We are building our first ever passing attempts escalator. Nix's line is sitting at 32.5, and it looks badly underpriced. He had 34+ attempts in 11 of 17 games last year, and Jacksonville allowed 33+ attempts in 15 of 17 games (88%). The Jaguars actually allowed 38+ passing attempts in over half of their games, and Nix was at 37+ in 10-of-17 with three games of 45+, including that Jaguars game. Bo Nix passing escalator to the moon.

@Stuckey2 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-week-2-betting-preview/id1004530793?i=1000790235301