Rams vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 9, 2025

🚨Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found on our Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/JrzjtqdVfA 🎙️Fade the Noise PODCAST - Subscribe!✅ https://www.youtube.com/@FadetheNoise 💎FREE TRIAL!!➡️ https://fas.st/t/EbWTQK7M (COPY & PASTE LINK) 🔥 50% OFF 1-MONTH VIP!! 🔥 Get full access to every bet, model, and tools from the Moneyline Hacks team. ⬇️⬇️ 💰 PROMO CODE: ValueHacks50 🌐 MoneylineHacks.com

Tailing @nick_giffen

Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush under 13.5 yards (-115 Bet365, 120 DK/MGM/ESPN) Since McCaffrey returned from injury in 2024, he has just 6 carries out of 194 carries from at least 14 yards from the end zone that have cleared 13.5 yards for a paltry 3.1% compared to the NFL average of 5.5% (removing QB scrambles). This year, CMC has cleared this in just 3 of 9 games, with those coming against the Arizona Cardinals who rank ninth worst in explosive run rate allowed, the Atlanta Falcons in which is took him 24 carries to get a longest run of 15 yards, and the New York Giants who rank third worst in explosive run rate allowed where he cleared his 15.5 longest rush line by the hook on 28 carries (and I gave out over last week in that game). But now he faces a Rams defense that is second-best in preventing explosive runs. Earlier this year when these two teams played, McCaffrey's longest run was just 8 yards on 22 carries. This year, in three games against top-five defenses in preventing explosive runs, McCaffrey has a longest run of just 13 yards on 61 carries. Additionally, the 49ers run zone concept runs with CMC 65% of the time, which is what the Rams defense has been better at stopping (3.86 ypc, 41.8% success rate allowed compared to 4.38 and 51.8% vs. man/gap concept runs). In my most generous projections where I overprojected his carries, fraction of carries from at least 14 yards out, and use generous distributions for his carry length and LA's allowed carry length, I'm still getting he stays under 13.5 almost 63% of the time.

We took Rams -3 on the Hot Read as our first pick Sunday night. We've got some good value there now that the line is up to -4.5 and rising. There's not much value left on a Rams spread now, but we can still invest in this elite offense against what might be the worst defense in the league. San Francisco has been demolished by injuries. The 49ers rank 31st in EPA per play against the middle of the field too, so Puka Nacua should eat, and Matthew Stafford had his biggest game of the season in the first meeting. Usually with Nacua, I just want receptions, but books are steering us away by pricing 8+ receptions at -130 juiced. But when Nacua does catch at least eight passes, as he's done 15 times in his career, he also racks up yardage — at least 85 yards in all but one game, with 100+ yards in 11 of 15 (73%). The 49ers allow the seventh-most yards to opposing WRs. Nacua had 10 catches for 85 yards in the first meeting this year, and the similarly-styled Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 9/124. The 49ers also rank bottom 10 in EPA per play against deep passes while the Rams rank top four passing deep and go there often, leaving the possibility of a big chunk play. Play Nacua 100+ receiving yards at +116 (DraftKings). He averages 126 YPG in his 15 games with 8+ catches, and he topped 150 yards in 40% of them, so play the yardage escalator at 120 yards for +223 and 150+ at +600 (both at DraftKings).

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/fo0oUthH6Xb

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/EvaZ2p3F6Xb

🚨Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found on our Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/JrzjtqdVfA 🎙️Fade the Noise PODCAST - Subscribe!✅ https://www.youtube.com/@FadetheNoise 💎$100K Challenge💎 https://www.playerprofit.com/ 10% OFF Any Bankroll - Promo Code: HACKS 🔥 50% OFF 1-MONTH VIP!! 🔥 Get full access to every bet, model, and tools from the Moneyline Hacks team. ⬇️⬇️ 💰 PROMO CODE: ValueHacks50 🌐 MoneylineHacks.com

@Stuckey2 Favorite Total https://myaction.app/25SlQ7HP4Xb

@ChrisRaybon 2 https://myaction.app/PhqO8ouP4Xb

@wheatonbrando Week 10 Hot Read https://myaction.app/pW5ZLhuMZXb

🔥 Week 10 Hot Read 🔥

4% ev play to +100