Texans vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - January 18, 2025

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CJ Stroud ⬆️ 13.5 Rush Yards (-109 @ BetRivers) THE BLITZ 📽️: 18.83 RushY Rolling with 2 Stroud props for game one. Stroud is more when he wants to be. We just saw him rush for 42 yards on 6 carries vs this Chargers team. Especially later in games, he is willing to take off. KC is allowing the 7th most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, which you have to take with a grain of salt. Ultimately, this is a team that creates good pressure which can force QB's up in the pocket and open up rushing lanes. Stroud has cleared this line in his only game vs KC as well. With Stroud really struggling at times with him arm, I'm expecting him to take yardage with his legs when he can.

FanDuel

@nick_giffen

@The_Oddsmaker

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Raybon 1

Foxhole

C.J. Stroud ⬆️ 0.5 INT (-140 @ FanDuel) THE BLITZ 📽️: 0.8 INT This is worth a play on +EV alone. Here is where this under is at on other books: DK: -160 MGM: -185 Caesars: -174 BR: -175 Pinnacle: -169 Stroud finished the regular season with 3 INT's in his final 3 games and threw one last week in the wild card round. He should have thrown 2, but one was called back. KC has forced 13 INT's this season and in what will likely be a negative game script for Stroud, he might find himself forcing the ball later in the game. In a game vs KC earlier this season, he threw a pair of INT's. I don't love HOU's chances of grabbing a lead in this one and Stroud just hasn't been the same guy this season.

Boyd

Freddie

I will never not fade Mahomes as a big fav

TAN pod / best bets — Travis Kelce legacy escalator

MGM

TAN pod / best bets — Worthy escalator

DNP (hip) all 3 days so probably gets ruled out, but worth hammering in case he's up. Only 3 came w/ Metchie also out, Dell hurt in-game. Under 2.5 in 15-of-16, including last 3g w/o Dell, in which he was WR4 in routes behind Nico/Metchie/Hutch each time. KC D top-5 man coverage rate, Woods 1 yard on 50 routes vs man (0.02 YPRR).

5.41% ev bet to -165

@ChrisRaybon likes it. I like it. Easy choice.

6.55% ev bet to +109

Have this at 45.3. Texans set up well for unders, but the Chiefs' offense was very efficient down the stretch, especially after Marquise Brown returned.

Read full writeup: https://x.com/PicksOffice

Over in 5 straight not including week 18 when they rested starters. 7 receptions against the Texans in week 16.

Double digit winds, possible snow. Both KC and Houston Top 8 defensive DVOA. Houston 26th in tempo and one of the highest FG/TD rates. KC averages 29 seconds per play with a one possession lead. 6 possessions of at least 10 plays ended in 4 TD and 2 FGs on Dec 21