Projected 2020 NFL Draft Order: Simulations Show Dolphins in Driver’s Seat to Land First Overall Pick

Projected 2020 NFL Draft Order: Simulations Show Dolphins in Driver’s Seat to Land First Overall Pick article feature image
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Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (left) greets wide receiver DeVante Parker (right).

  • The Miami Dolphins are overwhelming favorites to land the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after losing to the Washington Redskins.
  • Based on 10,000 simulations of the NFL season, we have the projected NFL Draft order following Week 6.

Sunday’s Washington Redskins vs. Miami Dolphins game was described as “a game that only bettors could like.” While winning bets on that game paid just the same as any other NFL contest, there was something larger at stake.

Coming into Week 6, the Dolphins had a 62.9% chance of finishing the season with the worst record, ultimately rewarding them with the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

On the other hand, the Redskins, while winless as well, had just a 10.9% chance, with the Cincinnati Bengals right on their heels at 10.1%.

After failing to convert a last-second two-point conversion, Miami ultimately lose to Washington, 17-16.

With the 2020 NFL Draft expected to offer a handful of top quarterback prospects, like Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon’s Justin Herbert, LSU’s Joe Burrow and Washington’s Jacob Eason, securing the first overall selection could finally land the Dolphins their first true franchise quarterback since Dan Marino.

Following 10,000 simulations of the NFL season, here’s an updated look at the projected order for next year’s draft following Week 6’s results.

Note: Our simulations were updated after Sunday Night Football, and therefore do not include results from Lions vs. Packers on Monday Night Football.

Projected 2020 NFL Draft Order

After falling to the Redskins, the Dolphins’ chances of ending up with the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft improved from 62.9% to 73.8%.

Here’s a full look at the projected draft order for the 2020 NFL Draft, including the average draft pick and chances of landing the first overall pick for each team.

While Miami looks like a lock for the first pick in the draft, Washington’s chances dropped from 10.9% to 4.87% after earning its first win of the season.

In fact, the Bengals leapfrogged the Redskins after a Week 6 loss to the Ravens.

Miami is so likely to finish the season with the worst record that only five teams have at least a 1% chance to end up with the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft: Dolphins, Bengals, Redskins, Jets and Falcons.