Download the App Image

2022 Super Bowl Predictions: Expert’s Model Ranks Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, Bengals Chances To Win the Championship

2022 Super Bowl Predictions: Expert’s Model Ranks Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, Bengals Chances To Win the Championship article feature image
Credit:

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Super Bowl trophy

The race for the 2022 Super Bowl crown is down to four teams.

With the Bengals and Chiefs set to kick off Championship Sunday followed by the 49ers-Rams primetime showdown at the host stadium of Super Bowl LVI, we asked our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner to project each contender’s chances of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come February 13.

Find his projections — as well as a comparison to the latest Super Bowl odds — below.


Super Bowl Predictions

Team To Make
Super Bowl
To Win
Super Bowl
Chiefs 71.0% 41.4%
Rams 56.8% 28.7%
49ers 43.2% 19.4%
Bengals 29.0% 10.5%

1. Kansas City Chiefs

  • To Win AFC Championship: 71.0%
  • To Win Super Bowl: 41.4%

2. Los Angeles Rams

  • To Win NFC Championship: 56.8%
  • To Win Super Bowl: 28.7%

3. San Francisco 49ers

  • To Win AFC Championship: 43.2%
  • To Win Super Bowl: 19.4%

4. Cincinnati Bengals

  • To Win AFC Championship: 29.0%
  • To Win Super Bowl: 10.5%

The ultimate NFL playoff cheat code!

Track the sharpest playoff picks

Model predictions for every game

Data-driven playoff systems

Super Bowl Odds

Team Odds Implied
Probability
Chiefs +125 41.3%
Rams +200 30.9%
49ers +450 17.5%
Bengals +800 10.3%
Odds via DraftKings

Since sportsbooks factor in the juice or vig — i.e. the tax they charge to take your bet — the implied probabilities of odds for a given game or market never add up to 100%. That’s why we removed the vig from the odds above in order to generate implied probabilities that do equal 100%. (You can learn more about vig and how to remove it here.)

Now let’s compare the vig-free implied probabilities of the above Super Bowl odds to Koerner’s projected chances of each team winning it all:

Team SB Odds Koerner’s Proj
Chiefs 41.3% 41.4%
Rams 30.9% 28.7%
49ers 17.5% 19.4%
Bengals 10.3% 10.5%

Koerner’s projections for both AFC contenders are virtually the same as the implied probability of their odds, but there is a small discrepancy for NFC contenders.

Koerner projects the Rams for -2.2% less of a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy than the odds do while, of course, giving the 49ers a 1.9% higher chance than the odds.

How would you rate this article?