2022 Super Bowl Predictions: Expert’s Model Ranks Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, Bengals Chances To Win the Championship
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Super Bowl trophy
The race for the 2022 Super Bowl crown is down to four teams.
With the Bengals and Chiefs set to kick off Championship Sunday followed by the 49ers-Rams primetime showdown at the host stadium of Super Bowl LVI, we asked our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner to project each contender's chances of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come February 13.
Find his projections — as well as a comparison to the latest Super Bowl odds — below.
Super Bowl Predictions
| Team | To Make Super Bowl | To Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 71.0% | 41.4% |
| Rams | 56.8% | 28.7% |
| 49ers | 43.2% | 19.4% |
| Bengals | 29.0% | 10.5% |
1. Kansas City Chiefs
- To Win AFC Championship: 71.0%
- To Win Super Bowl: 41.4%
2. Los Angeles Rams
- To Win NFC Championship: 56.8%
- To Win Super Bowl: 28.7%
3. San Francisco 49ers
- To Win AFC Championship: 43.2%
- To Win Super Bowl: 19.4%
4. Cincinnati Bengals
- To Win AFC Championship: 29.0%
- To Win Super Bowl: 10.5%
Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +125 | 41.3% |
| Rams | +200 | 30.9% |
| 49ers | +450 | 17.5% |
| Bengals | +800 | 10.3% |
| Odds via DraftKings | ||
Since sportsbooks factor in the juice or vig — i.e. the tax they charge to take your bet — the implied probabilities of odds for a given game or market never add up to 100%. That's why we removed the vig from the odds above in order to generate implied probabilities that do equal 100%. (You can learn more about vig and how to remove it here.)
Now let's compare the vig-free implied probabilities of the above Super Bowl odds to Koerner's projected chances of each team winning it all:
| Team | SB Odds | Koerner's Proj |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 41.3% | 41.4% |
| Rams | 30.9% | 28.7% |
| 49ers | 17.5% | 19.4% |
| Bengals | 10.3% | 10.5% |
Koerner's projections for both AFC contenders are virtually the same as the implied probability of their odds, but there is a small discrepancy for NFC contenders.
Koerner projects the Rams for -2.2% less of a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy than the odds do while, of course, giving the 49ers a 1.9% higher chance than the odds.
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