Eagles vs 49ers Picks, Spread, Props: NFC Championship Best Bets
Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey.
- The first ticket to the Super Bowl will be punched in Philly, as we look at today's 49ers vs. Eagles odds.
- Our staff has you covered with picks on the spread, total and player props.
- Check out our favorite 49ers vs. Eagles picks below.
49ers vs Eagles Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
The first ticket to the Super Bowl will be booked on Sunday in Philadelphia, where we're looking at 49ers vs. Eagles odds.
Our staff has you covered on all fronts, with picks on the spread and total, as well as a variety of player props. Get our favorite 49ers vs. Eagles picks below.
49ers vs Eagles Picks
Case for the Eagles
Only one of our experts has a pick on the spread for this game, and it's Simon Hunter.
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Simon Hunter:A rookie quarterback has never played in the Super Bowl before. In the AFC and NFC Championship games, rookie QBs are 0-4. Only one quarterback has ever covered the spread in a conference championship, and that was as a two-touchdown underdog.
I do not anticipate this trend changing this weekend in Philadelphia, possibly the most raucous environment in professional sports.
Brock Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, has played exceptionally well in his rookie season. As a starter in the regular season and playoffs combined, he is 8-0 with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He also has been sacked 14 times, or 1.75 times per game, one of the six lowest rates of all NFL starting QBs when extrapolated over a whole season.
Purdy, however, has shown one issue: He allowed himself to be sacked at least three times in three of six regular season games. He has been better in the playoffs, though, as he was sacked twice against Dallas.
The Eagles defense, meanwhile, averaged 4.2 sacks per game this season, the highest in the league by one whole sack. The 1985 Bears set the NFL record with 72 sacks in the regular season; the Eagles finished the 2022 season with 70 sacks (in one more game played).
This will be an extremely difficult spot for a rookie quarterback who spent the past three seasons playing against Big 12 defenses.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is a lot better than Dak Prescott. I took the Eagles as my Big Balls Bet of the Week last week. I will do it again.
Pick: Eagles -2.5 |
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49ers vs. Eagles Total
We have two experts aligned on how to bet the NFC Championship Game total. Neither is expecting a high-scoring game in Philadelphia on Sunday afternoon.
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Brandon Anderson: These teams are basically that Spider-Man pointing meme. Both feature fierce, nasty defenses that get after the quarterback relentlessly. Both offenses are built for the playoffs, with angry, smash-mouth rushing attacks ready to ram that ball down your throat. Both have won big all season, and in many ways, this will be the toughest test for either thus far.
Each side is more untested than you'd think.
The Eagles faced only seven defenses ranked in the top 14 in DVOA. They scored 23 PPG in those contests and lost three. The defense faced only seven offenses in the top 15. The leaky run defense only had six tries against a top-13 rushing attack, and the defense cratered to 18th in DVOA in those games, allowing over 27 PPG.
The 49ers offense faced a top-12 defense only four times, dropping to under 20 PPG and 10th in DVOA in those contests. The defense faced a top-12 offense twice and allowed over 30 PPG, falling to 14th in DVOA. Brock Purdy had never faced a top-15 passing DVOA defense before last week, when the Niners struggled to score — and the Eagles rank No. 1.
You could argue this might be the toughest test both offensively and defensively for both teams. If you think you know what will happen in this game, you're probably overconfident. Be careful.
Expect points to be at a premium — that's why under 46.5 is my favorite pick of the game.
Pick: Under 46.5 |
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John LanFranca: If the 49ers are going to win, they have to feature an extremely heavy-dose of their patented running game.
The Eagles’ rush defense has improved over the course of the season, but this is a test much taller than they have faced recently, and I expect the Niners to try and exploit their weakness. Kyle Shanahan knows he cannot afford to get into a game in which Brock Purdy is consistently dropping back against the league's best pass rush.
The 49ers have played four defenses over the course of this season that rank in the top 12 in total defensive DVOA — they have failed to reach 20 points in three of those contests. The Eagles defense ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year at a minuscule 4.8.
These two defenses combined to allow only two total touchdowns in 20 possessions in the Divisional round. Expect a field position battle resembling the Niners’ game a week ago against the Cowboys.
Both offensive units have feasted on defenses with questionable metrics this season, and it has resulted in an inflated total in the NFC title game. Defenses will rule the day, and will likely decide the victor, as points will be at a premium.
I'd play this under down to 46.
49ers vs. Eagles Player Props
Our staff of betting analysts have you covered on all sorts of player props for the NFC Championship Game. We have picks on yardage totals, receptions, interceptions, touchdown scorers and more.
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Brandon Anderson: The Niners struggle against WR2s and have to give Brown top treatment, so Smith could feast. Smith is playing nearly every snap, and he can play both in the slot and outside so his versatility has made him an immense weapon. He's really exploded over the past couple months — just check out the splits:
- First 11 games: 5.1 catches for 55.4 yards a game on 7.2 targets with 3 TDs
- Last 7 games: 6.4 catches for 92.6 YPG on 9.6 targets with 5 TDs
There's a real volume increase — from seven to almost 10 targets per game — and it's also a change in how the Eagles are using Smith to stretch the field and as more of a red zone target. His YPC has increased from under 11 to almost 15, and he's notched at least 61 yards in seven straight games.
I'm playing Smith to go over 66.5 receiving yards, and I'm looking for some escalator props since I project him around six catches for 90 yards and better than 50-50 to score a TD.
You can play 6/90 and a TD as a same game parlay at FanDuel at +670. Smith is also +270 to record the most receiving yards, and I like that play since Brown is likely his top competition — every Smith catch is one Brown can't get. I've already played Smith +5000 to win Super Bowl MVP as well. Few receivers have been as hot.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 66.5 Receiving Yards |
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Ricky Henne: If you tend to shy away from bets with significant juice, you may as well skip ahead.
If it doesn’t bother you, then let’s take a look at why George Kittle hauling in over 3.5 catches is my favorite prop on Sunday.
Kittle’s caught at least four passes in six of the seven games Brock Purdy has started. The rookie quarterback looks Kittle’s way 21.3% of the time he drops back to pass, while 25.4% of his completions have gone to his tight end. The chemistry between the two is palpable, and it’s easy to see even more balls thrown his way considering Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel are all battling injuries.
Meanwhile, the over has hit on tight end reception props in six of the last eight games against the Eagles. That makes sense considering there’s a notable discrepancy in how offenses attack Philadelphia.
The 120 tight end targets against Philly are the 11th most in the league. At the same time, the 306 wide receiver targets against them are the 10th least. I expect that trend to continue with Darius Slay and James Bradberry matched up with Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
Full transparency: I was fortunate enough to grab Kittle at over 3.5 receptions at a much favorable number earlier in the week. The juice it’s at right now is more than I prefer, which is why at this point I’m using it in single game parlays to boost the odds of my other bets. However, if you’re fine paying a premium, I’d take a long, hard look at this prop.
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Tony Sartori: The Eagles don’t have many flaws. However, their one weakness is stopping the run.
This flaw is typically overshadowed due to the amount of talent on their defensive line – but the D-line's strength is moreso in the pass rush than it is in run defense. By the end of the regular season, the Eagles ranked just 21st in defensive rush DVOA.
The biggest reason why so many people are backing Philadelphia is that they do not trust Brock Purdy. So what is Kyle Shanahan going to do?
He is going to utilize his two greatest assets – Christian McCaffrey and the defense – to take the pressure off Purdy. San Francisco is going to turn this into an ugly game, which is its greatest shot at winning.
Expect a lot of running from CMC, to both keep Hurts off the field and to keep the S.F. defense rested. CMC has gone over this total in five of his last eight games while Philly has allowed 60+ rushing yards to the opposing starting RB in each of their last three contests.
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Dylan Wilkerson: The Mr. Irrelevant narrative has been a fun one to follow.
Purdy has gotten a lot of credit for the 49ers’ success. Some of this praise is warranted, however, the hot streak can be credited to a lot more than the arm of the last pick in the 2022 NFL draft. The 49ers defense and run game has gotten San Francisco to where they are, rather than stellar QB play.
Purdy has come in and won games, but not with his amazing arm strength or shots down the field. He has only passed for 221 or more yards three times this season. Those instances came against three of the worst pass defenses in the league – the Seahawks, Raiders and Commanders. This isn't to take credit away from Purdy, but the 49ers have been working the run game and the defense has been dominating.
In addition, the Eagles allowed the second fewest pass yards during the regular season. Philadelphia's one weakness has been the run game, and I expect the 49ers to try take advantage of that rather than try and break a stout pass defense with a rookie quarterback.
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Cody Goggin: Brock Purdy has had a good run to this point, but the 49ers will likely have to rely on him to throw the ball more than any other game this season. San Francisco ran the ball 48.7% of the time, which was the seventh highest rate in the league. This has been even higher recently as they have run the ball 54.26% of the time over the last three weeks.
Unfortunately for them, the Eagles have been very good at defending the run this year. It doesn’t show up as much on the stat sheet due to varying personnel they have had throughout the year, but now that they have Jordan Davis, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph up front, the rush defense has been much better. If Philadelphia can stop the run on early downs, then San Francisco will be in trouble.
The Eagles are one of the best teams by any metric you look at when defending play-action passes. Out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy has the 16th highest play-action rate at 26.8%. In two playoff games, this has exploded however to 37.9%. With Philadelphia being good at defending play action, Purdy may have more traditional dropbacks than usual in order to move the ball.
The key to this game may be Avonte Maddox. The cornerback will be returning from injury and be on the field after missing the last three games.
With Maddox off the field, Eagles are 27th in success rate when other teams throw to the slot. When Maddox has played, the Eagles have the best success rate against slot players. Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle will likely be the most affected by this change as they run most of their routes from the slot or the backfield. Brandon Aiyuk also gets a heavy dose of routes from the slot, but he runs more outside routes where he may not be as affected.
Brock Purdy has also struggled on third and long this year, which may spell trouble. On third down, the Eagles have an 18.9% sack rate. The gap between the Eagles and the next-closest team is the same as the difference between 2nd and 14th. They bring the heat on third down and get home far more often than anyone else in the league.
Purdy is facing his biggest test yet and I don’t think that he will be able to get it done. There are many to attack this, but I will take Brock Purdy’s interception prop. I don’t love laying the juice at -140, but I think some of the good luck Purdy has had will finally catch up to him.
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Gilles Gallant: With A.J. Brown dealing with a hip injury, I expect Jalen Hurts to look for Smith early and often.
Getting looks has not been an issue for Smith in a while, as he’s tallied at least eight targets in 10 consecutive games. Over that stretch, he’s scored six touchdowns.
The 49ers defense is undoubtedly a tough unit, but they can be thrown on. They gave up 16 touchdowns to wide receivers this season and were in the bottom five in passing yards allowed to the position.
As discussed by colleague Nick Giffen on Thursday’s Green Dot Daily, the 49ers have given up a pass of at least 25 yards in 11 straight games. In the Divisional Round, CeeDee Lamb racked up 117 yards on 10 catches, a big chunk of that yardage coming on a 46-yard chunk play.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Anytime TD |
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