Our football staff is focused on six of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 9 on November 8.
First, we'll target Jets vs. Chiefs and Rams vs. Commanders in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a picks for Packers vs. Patriots. We also have picks for Giants vs. Eagles, Browns vs. Saints, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 9 Sunday slate.
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NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 9
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs Eagles
By Stuckey
This total is sitting at a low number of 38.5, and I am intrigued by the over because of the unique quarterback dynamic we will see on the field.
Joe Milton is taking over for Tanner McKee, and both Milton and J.J. McCarthy boast the highest average depth of target among all active signal-callers in the league right now. They are both willing to chuck the ball down the field.
While Milton is inaccurate, he possesses arguably the strongest arm in the NFL and brings a vital scrambling element that will help mitigate Philadelphia's disastrous offensive line play.
On the other side, the Giants offense is playing efficient football with McCarthy at QB, and their offensive line is holding up remarkably well.
With two quarterbacks eager to throw deep and plenty of underlying variance, this total simply feels too low.
Pick: Over 38.5 (-115)
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Browns vs Saints
You essentially have to hold your nose, blindly trust the situational handicapping factors, and just bet New Orleans here.
The Browns are stepping into a brutal scheduling spot, playing their third consecutive road game and their fourth road game in the last five weeks.
Cleveland performs significantly worse away from home, boasting an -8.6 point differential on the road compared to +3 mark at home.
The Browns are the only team in the NFL with a winning record and a negative overall point differential, largely because all five of their wins have required fourth-quarter comebacks, including three walk-off field goals. That sort of luck is entirely unsustainable.
With Deshaun Watson dealing with a concussion, the Browns will turn to Shedeur Sanders, who takes far too many drive-killing sacks and doesn't have the same mobility as Watson.
Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a perfectly timed bye week and getting vital pieces back, including Kelvin Banks, which is a huge upgrade for what has arguably been the worst left tackle situation in the NFL.
Pick: Saints -3 (-110)
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Lions vs Dolphins
By Stuckey
The Lions looked like they finally fixed their defensive woes when Brian Branch returned a couple of weeks ago, but the injury bug has decimated their back end once again.
Star linebacker Jack Campbell suffered a scary neck injury, Kerby Joseph isn't ready, and lockdown corner DJ Reed didn't practice this week.
The only thing Detroit's defense consistently does well is generate quick pressure, but that is usually neutralized by mobile quarterbacks like Malik Willis, who can buy time and extend plays outside the pocket.
Miami's offense has been showing some signs of life lately. Since Week 5, Willis ranks 12th in adjusted EPA per play and 5th in success rate, complementing a Dolphins rushing attack that ranks second in the entire NFL in explosiveness when adjusting for the opponent.
It is tough to win by margin on the road with a bottom-tier, injury-riddled defense. I make this number closer to Lions -5.
Pick: Dolphins +7 (-110)
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Rams vs Commanders
Sean McVay's highly touted scripted plays have been underwhelming recently, failing to generate a single first down on the Rams' first five drives against the Chargers last week.
Without Davante Adams to stretch the field, the Rams offense lacks their usual bite.
The prop market is showing low expectations for the ground game, with Blake Corum's rushing line sitting at just 49.5 yards despite seeing an uptick in volume recently.
I like the first-half under and the full-game under in a matchup where both offenses are dealing with major structural and health limitations.
Pick: Under 48.5 (-115)
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Jets vs Chiefs
By Stuckey
If you are looking for a spot where the backdoor should be wide open all afternoon, it’s backing the Jets catching double digits.
Offensively, New York is finally at full strength, which makes them dangerous. Dylan Parham has quietly been one of the elite guards in the NFL this season, and getting him back stabilizes the interior of that offensive line.
Geno Smith is elite when he is operating from a clean pocket without pressure, and he is facing a Kansas City defensive front that has struggled to get home this season — the Chiefs barely laid a finger on Bo Nix last week.
The Chiefs’ defensive metrics look fine on the surface, but they have benefited from a soft opposing quarterback schedule.
They are also dealing with injuries in the secondary — notably, top draft pick Mansoor Delane is out again.
Even coming off back-to-back losses, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes play the regular season like a marathon, not a sprint.
The Chiefs rarely cover large spreads as they are content to just bleed the clock dry. Aaron Glenn's horrific in-game decisions are always a concern, but the Jets' underlying numbers suggest they are closer to a 3.5-win team rather than their 2-6 record. I think 10 points is too much.
Pick: Jets +10 (-110)
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Packers vs Patriots
By Stuckey
This is a wait-and-see game for me regarding the injury reports, but I lean toward the Packers catching the hook at +3.5.
There is an insane amount of variance in this matchup. Jonathan Gannon deserves credit for keeping this Green Bay defense effective at limiting explosive plays despite dealing with a barrage of injuries and missing Micah Parsons.
Meanwhile, Matt LaFleur remains one of the best coaches in the league at scheming up downfield explosives.
Both Jordan Love and Drake Maye love pushing the ball vertically, ranking just behind J.J. McCarthy in average depth of target.
The Patriots are dealing with lots of injury uncertainty regarding Hunter Henry (questionable) and A.J. Brown (out), and we don't know who will actually be on the field to catch those deep shots.
If the injury report breaks in Green Bay's favor, I will probably find myself taking the points in what will be a high-variance, downfield passing game.
Pick: Packers +3.5 (-120)
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