Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 9 on Sunday, November 8.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 9.
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NFL Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Jets vs Chiefs |
| Broncos vs Panthers |
| Rams vs Commanders |
| Cowboys vs Colts |
| Lions vs Dolphins |
| Browns vs Saints |
| Giants vs Eagles |
| Texans vs Chargers |
| Packers vs Patriots |
| Raiders vs 49ers |
| Cardinals vs Seahawks |
Jets vs. Chiefs
Chiefs touchdown scorer odds are brutal, and it doesn’t lend itself well to banking on some players that may show some hidden value.
For example, I like Noah Grey. He’s a decent TE option, but only +500 to score for a TE that runs routes at a 35% clip? No thanks.
Kenneth Walker III bounce-back game? Sure! But at -210, I can’t get there.
I think if you’re betting Chiefs TD props, you have to either accept that you’re betting Xavier Worthy again at +230 (been there) or you pay the premium and take Rashee Rice at +140.
Rice has only scored two TDs this year while dealing with different ailments (or financial issues), so he might have more incentive to ball out than any other Chiefs player.
Rice is back to practicing in full now, and today he faces a Jets defense that has allowed eight passing TDs over the last three games.
My initial read on the Jets was to buy low on WR Garrett Wilson, but he’s out with a concussion, which means there’s a bit of uncertainty on how his 26.8% target share will be dispersed.
This is a bit of a roll of the dice, but I think it’s TE Mason Taylor’s turn to get back in the end zone.
I get that Adonai Mitchell has a lot of interest this week after a monster Week 8 (9/142/1), but the Chiefs secondary has only allowed two touchdowns to WRs all season while ranking top five in targets, catches, and yards to the position.
On the flip side, the Chiefs have allowed five passing TDs to TEs while ranking bottom-five in catches, yards and targets to the position.
Taylor ranks second on the Jets with five red-zone targets while consistently getting close to 60% route participation.
Maybe it’s Kenyon Sadiq’s turn to score, or perhaps Jeremy Ruckert sneaks by us, but at least Taylor fits the profile and has decent odds in what will likely be a pass-heavy game script for the Jets as near double-digit underdogs.
VERDICT: Mason Taylor +425 | Rashee Rice +140
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Broncos vs. Panthers
The arrival of Jonah Coleman should obviously take some of the stress off the Broncos' playcallers against the Panthers.
Carolina’s defense has holes across the board, and stopping the run has been an issue since the start of last season.
The Panthers rank last in rushing TDs allowed and rushing yards per game. Coleman should feast here, but the presence of J.K. Dobbins still worries me too much to want to bet either to score.
Instead, I think taking Bo Nix to run for another TD would make sense in this spot. There’s a high probability that he won’t run for another 62-yard TD, but his scrambling and designed runs have increased over the last four games with Sean Payton calling the offense.
At +450, Nix is worth taking against a defense with a clear weakness.
I’m also going to bet Panthers TE Darren Waller here, but honestly, I don't love it.
Waller is so streaky as a TD scorer that he’s worth taking every once in a while because you’ll get decent odds at +400 or better, but don’t be shocked if/when he disappears completely.
The Panthers' passing offense looked great in the opening month of the season, but as injuries mounted, Carolina has failed to top 20 points in back-to-back games.
Now, the Panthers host a Broncos defense that is getting healthier and likely going to wreak havoc in a Panthers backfield that has already given up 23 sacks (ranked 31st) to opposing defenses.
I would also be ok with passing on the Panthers altogether, but unless you want to take WR John Metchie at +800, I will go with the only Panther I’m showing value on to score a TD, and that’s Waller.
VERDICT: Bo Nix +450 | Darren Waller +475
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Rams vs. Commanders
I’m going with Jayden Daniels again at +260. The Commanders offense is a bit tricky to figure out because they’re coming off a game against the Eagles where they didn’t have to do much to get the win, but I think Daniels is going to need to use his legs in this matchup.
Daniels has scored two rushing TDs this season with five red-zone carries, and he leads all quarterbacks in scrambles per game — which is even more impressive when you consider the fact that he’s missed 2 1/2 games due to injury.
With Rams DE Myles Garrett returning, the Rams' defensive front should see a boost, and if they can get pressure, that’s when Daniels is unlocked, as his scramble rate nearly doubles when seeing pressure in the pocket.
On the other side, you usually want to target tight ends for teams facing the Commanders, but the problem with the Rams is they have too many mouths to feed.
Tyler Higbee is the mainstay, but even he only has one TD this year with TE Davis Allen catching two touchdowns in a win over the Raiders. Colby Parkinson is expected to return after missing Week 8 with a rib injury.
Out of the three, I’d likely go with Parkinson because leads all Rams TEs with five red-zone targets, and he caught eight TDs last year.
Pick your poison, but with Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, and Puka Nacua all at minus-odds, let’s take Parkinson to score another TD.
VERDICT: Jayden Daniels +260 | Colby Parkinson +300
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Cowboys vs. Colts
The Colts appear to be bottoming out, but while they suffered a severe beatdown against the Jaguars in Week 8, the Cowboys are typically a decent get-right spot for opposing offenses.
When it comes to the Colts, it’s hard to tell who may be on the trade block, but one player I know isn’t going to be traded is TE Tyler Warren. So, let’s take him to score at +230.
Warren missed two games due to a groin injury, but he returned in Week 8 against the Jags, and while he didn’t score, it was encouraging that he saw 10 targets with one coming in the red zone.
The Cowboys have allowed 16 passing TDs (bottom-five mark in the NFL) while ranking 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass, and if Dallas can explode out of the gate, that will mean the Colts' passing offense needs to keep pace.
No starting tight end should be over +200 against the Cowboys for the foreseeable future.
If there’s a player that desperately needs to score touchdowns this season, it’s Cowboys WR George Pickens.
Pickens is on the franchise tag this season, and with only two touchdowns so far, the offseason deals might dry up if he doesn’t start making more big plays.
WR3 Ryan Flournoy has finally taken some of the TD pie from Pickens, and CeeDee Lamb is the clear WR1 for this offense, but this is a decent time to buy back in on Pickens after a dud game.
Up until Week 8, Pickens had at least one red-zone target in five straight games. I’ll take the chalk one more time.
VERDICT: Tyler Warren +230 | George Pickens +145
- Find First Touchdown picks for every Week 9 game in our expert's TD Model!
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Lions vs. Dolphins
The first thing you need to do when betting TD scorers against the Lions is look up who the starting TE is, and then work your way backwards. If the matchup looks good and the odds line up, we hammer it.
This week, that applies to Dolphins TE Greg Dulcich at +320. He leads the Dolphins with four red-zone targets and runs nearly triple the routes of the remaining TEs on the roster, while nearly doubling them in targets per route run (TPRR).
The Lions rank last in the NFL in targets, catches, yards and TDs allowed to TEs, and they have allowed the opposing TE1 score on them in each of the last three games.
On the other side, I’m not ready to leap to the conclusion that the Lions are intentionally using Sam LaPorta less because he made some comments about wanting a new contract. All that aside, I think this is a great spot for him to get back on track against the Dolphins.
The Lions' last two games were really tough matchups for LaPorta. Green Bay and Minnesota both rank in the top seven in defensive DVOA against TEs — but now they face the Dolphins.
Miami’s pass defense isn’t something to fret over. The Dolphins have allowed 16 passing TDs this season, and they rank 24th in defensive DVOA against TEs.
VERDICT: Sam LaPorta +190 | Greg Dulcich +330
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Browns vs. Saints
The return of Shedeur Sanders doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for the Browns, but during his brief tenure last season, Harold Fannin Jr. became the whole passing offense with Sanders at QB, and we are getting the tight end at +260 this week.
Fannin scored five receiving TDs and a rushing TD with Sanders as the quarterback over the final six games last season. Fannin picked up right where he left off to start this year with three touchdowns in 2026, and he is coming off a 12-target game after having nine in Week 7.
Fannin has a bit more competition this year with WRs Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion, but I think their presence will actually help Fannin get better looks as the Saints can’t double team.
I’m just gonna go ahead and say it: Alvin Kamara is the new Taysom Hill. The Saints just can’t quit on the veteran even though there are better options ahead of him.
Kamara has now outsnapped the presumed RB1 Kendre Miller in two of the last three games while seeing four red-zone looks (three targets, one rush) and scoring three TDs this year.
Kamara is the main check-down option for QB Tyler Shough, and the RB also gets the goal-line work in a very Taysom-esque role. Kamara absolutely should not be listed over +250 to score a TD.
If Miller or Shough are the ones to score, so be it. But I’ll take Kamara to find the end zone at these odds.
VERDICT: Alvin Kamara +300 | Harold Fannin +260
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Giants vs. Eagles
As soon as I saw the Eagles announce they were starting QB Joe Milton, I immediately ran to bet his TD prop at +650.
Milton’s profile as a quarterback tends to skew toward scrambling — we’ve seen him use his legs with the Patriots and Cowboys, but he also has a rocket arm.
The latter is the troubling part because the accuracy doesn’t typically accompany the arm, which is why he hasn't been able to stick with a team.
The last time he officially started was Week 18 with New England, and he logged three red-zone carries and scored a rushing TD in that game.
I’m not going to pretend we need a lot more logic in this spot, but the Giants have allowed three rushing TDs to quarterbacks over the last three games, and Milton’s physicality should also allow him to be the tush-push option for the Eagles if they get close to the goal line.
I’m not as impressed with the QB J.J. McCarthy as others might be. Thus, I’m a bit down on the Giants' passing upside in Week 9, but when in doubt, it’s hard to pass on Giants TE Isaiah Likely at +240.
Likely and WR Malik Nabers have basically been the Giants' entire passing offense this year, with Likely outdoing Nabers in red-zone targets while Nabers has a slightly higher TPRR.
Nabers has missed some practice this week. It remains unclear whether or not he is going to play, but even if he does, he’ll likely have to face CB Quinyon Mitchell, which is a matchup I tend to avoid.
The range of outcomes is too wide for Nabers because he could score two TDs or be shut down completely.
I thought about taking McCarthy, but the Giants seem to be reluctant to use him for the tush push, opting to let Jameis Winston do it last week against the Texans.
The only Giants starter that doesn’t have question marks at this stage is Likely. I will likely default to him.
VERDICT: Isaiah Likely +240 | Joe Milton +550
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Texans vs. Chargers
After a few weeks of practice and a much-needed bye, I fully expect the Texans to unleash Marvin Harrison Jr. against the Chargers.
Harrison has only run 16 routes in two games with Houston, but I fully expect that workload to increase now that he's more up to speed on the playbook.
Even in those brief moments on the field, QB C.J. Stroud has spammed Harrison with eight targets (two in the red zone), and he scored a touchdown in Week 7.
I think this is one of the last chances to buy low on Harrison because if he starts to play his usual 70% route rate and scores another TD, we may never see +300 or higher again.
I have almost zero confidence at this stage for the Chargers. They’ve come out flat at nearly every challenge and simply don’t excel in matchups they should dominate.
The Texans defense has had some ups and downs this year, but their ability to get pressure and collapse pockets has me worried that we’re going to see more inept offensive play from a Chargers unit that is tied for last in passing TDs with the Colts.
However, I think if we’re going to take a shot on a Charger this week, it’s WR Quentin Johnston at +400.
If you’re trying to tell me about all the reasons he sucks, save it because I know. However, he plays the most snaps, runs the most routes, and leads the team with seven deep targets.
The Texans defense has had some issues containing deep passes this season (bottom-five in defensive DVOA vs. deep pass) so I’m just going to bank on Justin Herbert completing a bomb to Johnston.
VERDICT: Marvin Harrison Jr. +330 | Quentin Johnston +425
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Packers vs. Patriots
Last week, I wrote about how we might still be undervaluing the scoring potential of Patriots QB Drake Maye, and he rewarded us with a rushing touchdown.
Now, playing at home against the Packers, Maye's TD odds are hovering around the same price at +300 or better. I’m taking him again to score again.
Maye leads the NFL in quarterback scrambles, and he has scored a touchdown in three of the last four games. He has also taken over the team lead in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line from RB Rhamondre Stevenson.
Maye’s ability to get outside of the pocket with the threat of the pass is a skill that we need to keep investing in, especially against a Packers defense that is much better at defending the pass than the run.
I strongly considered taking WR Matthew Golden (+185) in this spot because his usage numbers are insane through eight games, but I can’t pass on TE Tucker Kraft at +240.
Kraft has scored three TDs this season with a score in back-to-back games — he looks healthier and more effective with each passing week.
Since Week 3, Kraft has seen 10 red-zone targets, and he's scored nine TDs over his last 16 games (since start of 2025 season).
I'm not going to overthink this one.
VERDICT: Drake Maye +340 | Tucker Kraft +265
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Raiders vs. 49ers
We took him last week against the Jets and he scored, so I say we go back to Raiders WR Jalen Nailor at +425.
Over the last three games, Nailor has been operating as the Raiders' WR2, and with QB Kirk Cousins still starting, the upside for the passing attack should be there, especially in a likely trailing game script.
In that span since coming back from injury, Nailor is running a route on 68% of dropbacks and has three end-zone targets.
The emergence of Nailor, along with the return of slot receiver Jack Bech, has made Cody White a non-factor as well.
If you wanted to take WR Tre Tucker instead at +310, I’d be into that one, too.
The value for 49ers TD scorers this week is BRUTAL[ They have four players listed with minus-odds to score, and RB Christian McCaffrey is upwards of -300.
The 49ers are pretty big home favorites here, and while McCaffrey should get the lion's share of carries, I’m looking at his backup Kaelon Black at +280.
I think McCaffrey will gets his, but with the amount of volume he gets, it’s no surprise that he eventually pulled up with a hamstring issue going into the bye — and now the Niners are facing the team ranked last in defensive DVOA against the run and have given up seven rushing TDs over the last four games.
Even if McCaffrey scores, there’s a great chance for Black to come in and relieve him, or even just get some extra work while the RB1 rests.
With Black seeing five red-zone carries over the last two games and the need to keep McCaffrey healthy, I definitely could see Kyle Shanahan opting for a bit more of a committee.
VERDICT: Jalen Nailor +500 | Kaelon Black +250
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Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Yay! We finally get to bet on the NFL’s leader in red-zone targets again: Cardinals TE Tre McBride.
It remains to be seen what kind of production the Cardinals can get on offense with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but I’m a bit dubious we’ll see some of the same highs that we saw with Jacoby Brissett.
Outside of McBride, I wouldn’t feel great about betting Cardinals TD props because even in Minshew’s heyday, he wasn’t throwing multiple touchdowns regularly — and now he’s on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL in a hostile environment.
With McBride, you know you’re getting a top-two TE (and he’s not two) who will likely see 10+ targets as Minshew’s safety blanket.
With Rashid Shaheed out, I’m going right back to WR3 Tory Horton for the Seahawks.
Horton saw a season-high six targets last week (one in the red zone) with Shaheed out, and he was fairly productive last season when he was in the WR3 role in this offense.
Last year, Horton scored six TDs in nine games while leading Seattle in end-zone targets (six) before he was injured for the rest of the season.
This is a bit too long of a price for Horton, who could also be utilized in the kick return game.
VERDICT: Trey McBride +220 | Tory Horton +475
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