Freedman’s Favorite Player Props & Betting Picks for AFC & NFC Championship Games: Mahomes, Henry, Adams, More
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Davante Adams.
The Conference Championships are here: Let’s get betting.
Here are the player props I like for this weekend based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool, where the props with a Bet Quality Rating of 10 (out of 10) have gone 496-325-19 (60.4%) since the 2018 season.
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This season, I’m 332-218-10 (+64.1) on NFL player props.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 3:05 pm ET
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: -210 (Bet now at bet365)
- Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns: +120 (Bet now at FanDuel)
In the 26 full games Mahomes and wide receiver Tyreek Hill have played together, the quarterback has passed for more than 1.5 touchdowns in 20 games (76.9%) and more than 2.5 touchdowns in 14 games (53.8%).
With Hill, Mahomes has had a mean of 2.73 touchdowns and median of three.
Against the Titans in Week 10, Mahomes passed for three touchdowns.
Chiefs RB Damien Williams
- Over 3.5 Receptions: +140 (Bet now at DraftKings)
- Over 26.5 Receiving Yards: -118 (Bet now at DraftKings)
Williams had a 97% snap rate last week: He sure looks like the locked-in lead back for the Chiefs.
In his 13 Chiefs games with a snap rate of more than 50%, Williams has had a median outcome of four receptions and 30 yards receiving.
Last week, Williams had six targets, and this year the Titans allowed 8.1 targets per game to running backs — the league’s third-highest average.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill
- Under 76.5 Receiving Yards: -118 (Bet now at FanDuel)
In his 26 full games with Mahomes, Hill has a mean of 84.2 yards but a median of 69.5.
And in their eight games together this year, Hill has a mean of 74.4 yards and a median of 64.5.
Hill could have a big game, but his matchup isn’t great — I expect Hill will be matched up with cornerback Adoree’ Jackson for much of the game — so I’m looking to leverage his volatility.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill
- Under 235.5 Passing Yards: -134 (Bet now at DraftKings)
In his 12 starts with the Titans, Tannehill has a median of 228.5 yards passing. He’s no lighting it up.
And the Titans have relied even more on the run over the past three weeks, limiting Tannehill to just 16.3 pass attempts and 119.3 yards passing per game.
Titans RB Derrick Henry
- Over 106.5 Rushing Yards: -120 (Bet now at bet365)
Since Tannehill became the starter in Week 7, Henry has had a median of 22 carries and 149 yards rushing.
And over the past three weeks, Henry has had a median of 32 carries and 195 yards rushing in must-win games.
The Chiefs might be without Pro-Bowl run-stuffing defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf), and they were No. 29 in run defense DVOA in the regular season (per Football Outsiders).
Against the Chiefs in Week 10, Henry rushed for 188 yards on 23 carries.
Titans WR Corey Davis
- Under 2.5 Receptions: +135 (Bet now at DraftKings)
- Under 39.5 Receiving Yards: -110 (Bet now at DraftKings)
The Titans have had an extremely run-heavy offense over the past three weeks, and Davis has been transformed into an afterthought, averaging 1.7 receptions and 15.7 receiving yards per game in that span.
In his 11 games with quarterback Ryan Tannehill as the starter, Davis has a median of two receptions and 24 yards receiving.
In the regular season, no team held opposing wide receiver units to fewer receptions and yards receiving than the Chiefs did with 9.4 and 119.3 per game.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 6:40 pm ET
49ers RB Raheem Mostert
- Over 49.5 Rushing Yards: -112 (Bet now at FanDuel)
I liked the Mostert over last week, and the water from that well is likely to be just as sweet this week.
Over the past six weeks, Mostert has averaged 72.8 yards on 12.7 carries per game, going over 49.5 yards in each one.
In 10 games this year, Mostert has had eight-plus carries. He’s had more than 49.5 yards rushing in all but one of them.
Do you think he’ll get at least eight carries this weekend? I do.
The Packers rank as the No. 25 run defense overall (per Pro Football Focus).
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
- Under 239.5 Passing Yards: -112 (Bet now at DraftKings)
- Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: -124 (Bet now at FanDuel)
Chris Raybon makes a strong case for fading Rodgers, and I agree. The 49ers are No. 1 in PFF coverage grade, and Rodgers had just 104 yards passing and one touchdown against them in Week 12.
Packers WR Davante Adams
- Over 81.5 Receiving Yards: -130 (Bet now at DraftKings)
Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has had a robust 11.3 targets per game, and over his past four games, he’s bumped that number up to 13.3 targets, going over 81.5 yards in each game and averaging 118 yards.
Even with the tough matchup, Adams is likely to get double-digit targets, and he’s had more than 81.5 yards in 16 of his 26 games with 10-plus targets since his third-year breakout and six of nine such games this year.
I expect that Adams will be able to avoid cornerback Richard Sherman for the majority of his routes, so the severity of his matchup should be mitigated.
Packers TE Jimmy Graham
- Under 2.5 Receptions: -118 (Bet now at DraftKings)
- Under 23.5 Receiving Yards: -112 (Bet now at FanDuel)
Since No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams returned in Week 9, Graham has a median of two receptions and 17 yards. He is dust.
And strong safety Jaquiski Tartt is a tight end eliminator: Even though he missed Weeks 14-17, the 49ers were still No. 1 in the regular season with just 34.5 yards receiving per game allowed to tight tight ends and No. 2 against the position in pass defense DVOA.
Graham had just one reception and seven yards on two targets against the 49ers in Week 12.
Say goodnight, Gracie.
Freedman is 571-446-22 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App as he’ll continue to fill out his prop card throughout the weekend.