Freedman’s Favorite Player Props & Betting Picks for AFC & NFC Championship Games: Mahomes, Henry, Adams, More
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Davante Adams.
The Conference Championships are here: Let’s get betting.
Here are the player props I like for this weekend based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool, where the props with a Bet Quality Rating of 10 (out of 10) have gone 496-325-19 (60.4%) since the 2018 season.
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This season, I’m 332-218-10 (+64.1) on NFL player props.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 3:05 pm ET
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: -210 (Bet now at bet365)
- Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns: +120 (Bet now at FanDuel)
In the 26 full games Mahomes and wide receiver Tyreek Hill have played together, the quarterback has passed for more than 1.5 touchdowns in 20 games (76.9%) and more than 2.5 touchdowns in 14 games (53.8%).
With Hill, Mahomes has had a mean of 2.73 touchdowns and median of three.
Against the Titans in Week 10, Mahomes passed for three touchdowns.
Chiefs RB Damien Williams
- Over 3.5 Receptions: +140 (Bet now at DraftKings)
- Over 26.5 Receiving Yards: -118 (Bet now at DraftKings)
Williams had a 97% snap rate last week: He sure looks like the locked-in lead back for the Chiefs.
In his 13 Chiefs games with a snap rate of more than 50%, Williams has had a median outcome of four receptions and 30 yards receiving.
Last week, Williams had six targets, and this year the Titans allowed 8.1 targets per game to running backs — the league’s third-highest average.