Andrew Luck Injury Status Creating Sneaky NFL Betting Value

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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) greets quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7)

  • Andrew Luck's Week 1 status against the Los Angeles Chargers is up in the air due to a lingering ankle injury.
  • We analyze how savvy bettors can take advantage of Luck's uncertain status with a wager that's offering a big edge.

Here we go again. After reportedly suffering a calf injury back in April, Colts QB Andrew Luck is still sidelined and may not be ready for Indianapolis’ Week 1 game against the Chargers.

On Tuesday, GM Chris Ballard revealed that the team is unsure whether Luck will be ready for its season-opening matchup, forcing several sportsbooks to take the Colts-Chargers Week 1 game off the board.

Off the board means that books have removed all odds for this matchup, preventing bettors from making wagers until more information regarding Luck’s status is known.

However, there are still plenty of bets directly and indirectly involving the Colts available. And based on our Bet Labs NFL simulations, one prop with a big edge is still dangling out there for bettors to jump on right now.

The key to this bet is that it’s already offering a nice edge even with the assumption that Luck is 100% healthy to start the season.

Based on the latest round of our NFL simulations, the Houston Texans win the AFC South 26.9% of the time. That translates to odds of +271.

However, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is offering the Texans at +400 to win the division — an implied probability of 20%.

And remember, these projections are on the conservative side with the expectation that Luck will play at a high level for the full 16-game season.

Should the Colts’ signal-caller miss any regular-season action, or even be limited while playing through injury, the Texans at +400 to win the AFC South becomes an even better bet.