Atlanta Falcons Betting Primer: Super Bowl Odds, Win Total, More
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Jones.
Atlanta Falcons Odds
If you’re new to betting, the Falcons’ +5000 Super Bowl odds mean a $100 bet would net $5,000 if they won. [Convert odds using our betting odds calculator.]
Atlanta looks to improve upon its second-place NFC South finish and 7-9 record from 2019. With former NFL MVP Matt Ryan, seven-time Pro Bowler Julio Jones and offseason acquisition Todd Gurley, the Falcons’ offense should be solid once again, especially if they can work out some of the offensive line issues they faced last season.
Our analysts break down the Falcons’ win total and key questions facing them in 2020.
Falcons Win Total
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, breaks down how he’s betting the Falcons’ win total.
After a 1-7 start to the 2019 season, head coach Dan Quinn decided to move WRs coach Raheem Morris onto the secondary. They looked like a completely different team over the final eight games, closing out the season 6-2. Exactly how much of that turnaround had to do with Morris specifically is unclear, but the Falcons decided to promote him to defensive coordinator as a result.
I believe the Falcons are somewhere between the first- and second-half versions of their 2019 selves, which is essentially league average.
Atlanta also faces the toughest schedule of any team in my ratings, by far — not only do the Falcons have to face the Saints and Buccaneers twice in the NFC South, but they also get the Seahawks, Cowboys, Packers, Chargers, Vikings and Chiefs.
I’m right in line with the market on this total — 7.5 is the optimal line here, so I’m not taking a side.
Key Questions for the Falcons
1. Can the offensive line youth unlock Atlanta’s offensive potential? Matt Ryan has the necessary weapons, but the offensive line must improve. The Falcons hope Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary will have more success in their sophomore campaigns — particularly McGary, who allowed a league-high 13 sacks in 2019. They also might need rookie Matt Hennessy to fill the starting left guard position.
Center and left tackle look solid with Alex Mack and Jake Matthews, but they need three more inexperienced players to keep Ryan upright and open up holes for Todd Gurley, who might not have much left in his legs to create on his own.
2. Will the defense continue its momentum from late last season? The Falcons defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed in the first half of the season, allowing 31.7 points per game en route to a 1-7 start. They also ranked in the bottom three in sacks, turnovers and third-down conversion rate.
Then head coach Dan Quinn moved Raheem Morris from wide receivers coach to defensive backs coach while also giving up play-calling duties to Morris and linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich.
From that point forward, they finished 6-2 with road wins against the Saints and 49ers. Over that stretch, they allowed only 18.6 points per game and finished in the top-five in turnovers, sacks, red-zone and third-down conversion rate — it was a remarkable turnaround that Atlanta hopes can carry over into 2020.
3. Can rookie A.J. Terrell get the job done as a starting corner? Atlanta moved on from Desmond Trufant, which means Isaiah Oliver slides into the No. 1 corner role. Terrell will likely start at the other corner spot on the outside. The 2020 first-round draft pick will need to produce immediately as the options behind him haven’t shown much promise in the past. The Falcons also hope fellow rookie Marlon Davidson can help generate pressure up front.