Our 7 Favorite Betting Picks for Bears vs. Redskins

Our 7 Favorite Betting Picks for Bears vs. Redskins article feature image
Credit:

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khalil Mack

Bears at Redskins Betting Odds

  • Odds: Bears -5.5
  • Total: 41.5
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Odds above as of noon ET on Monday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Is Washington being disrespected by the market?

The Redskins are 5.5-point home underdogs against a 1-1 Bears team that squeaked out a dramatic 16-14 win over the Broncos in the final seconds.

Our experts make their picks against the spread — including a live line they’re looking for — and reveal their four favorite prop bets.

Chad Millman: Redskins +5.5

The answer: Luke Falk. Josh Rosen. Joe Flacco. Joe Freakin’ Flacco!
The question: Name a few of the many, many quarterbacks who average more yards per pass than Mitch Trubisky heading into Week 3.

The answer: DeShaun Watson. Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff.
The question: Name of the many, many quarterbacks who average fewer yards per pass than Case Keenum heading into Week 3.

That’s right, the quarterback the Bears traded up to get — bypassing Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, who averages five yards per pass — is a 5.5-point favorite on the road. This, to me, is a classic p-cubed game: Public Perception Point spread.

The Bears’ stout defense is favored against a Redskins team that’s consistently degraded by the public and inflated as an underdog by bookmakers. They know you hate Washington. They know you keep hearing announcers say this about Mitch Trubisky: “He’s so good at getting the ball out of his hands fast. When he does that he’s deadly.”

Note to talking-head experts, the problem with your theory is what happens next: Trubisky isn’t exactly a speed reader when it comes to defenses. If he doesn’t see his first read, he doesn’t see much at all.

Meanwhile, Case Keenum is completing nearly 70% of his passes, has yet to throw a pick and has done it against two division foes who happen to be the best of the division, Philly and Dallas. While the Redskins D is dreadful — truly, an awful group that is the sole reason this team is actually winless — is Trubisky good enough to take advantage of that? Not likely.

If you give me the better quarterback as a home underdog of more than a field goal, that’s a take.

Collin Wilson: Redskins +5.5

The Redskins have started the season 0-2, but do not count them as an easy team to fade against the spread.

The Bears are coming off a 2-point victory over the Broncos. Denver out-gained Chicago 372 yards to 273. The Bears’ yards per play differential now sets at 0.0 after giving up 282 passing yards to the Broncos and more than 166 to Aaron Rodgers.
Setting the defense aside, the Bears offense will continue to keep games close.

The Bears are 26th in expected points added and 31st in scoring drive percentage. With the Redskins averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense, it is a legitimate question if Keenum is at the same level of play as Trubisky. The pass-blocking for Washington has been mid-pack in the NFL, with a grade of 66.9 per Pro Football Focus. A top-10 rank in offensive rushing with 13th in passing might be enough for Keenum to points on the board against a Bears defense that is 10th overall in PFF.

The current line sits at Chicago -5 or -5.5 in most shops. With this number sitting in a dead zone, I am more than content to set Line Watcher in SportsInsights for a potential 6 in the market. If not, I will play the Redskins live at +7 with a playback on the Bears at +3 in-game.

Stuckey: Redskins +7 or Better Live

Trubisky is not good, but he’s actually performed pretty well in the first quarter during the scripted portion of games. So, I’ll be hoping the Bears can get off to a hot start, allowing me to grab the Skins at +7 or better.

If not, I’ll likely sit on the sidelines for this Monday nighter.

Matthew Freedman: Vernon Davis Receiving Props

Under 3.5 Receptions (-165)
Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Starter Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, so once again Davis will fill in as the No. 1 tight end for Washington.

Vernon Davis
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Vernon Davis

Since joining the Redskins in 2016, he has significant Reed-based splits (per the RotoViz Game Splits app):

  • Without Reed (17 games): 4.9 targets, 3.2 receptions, 40.3 yards receiving
  • With Reed (29 games): 3.1 targets, 2.2 receptions, 34.5 yards receiving

So without Reed, Vernon should see an increase in usage.

But the reception total of 3.5 is clearly aggressive based on Vernon’s historical Reed-less production, and I’m also taking the under on 33.5 receiving yards because his matchup is tough.

Last year, the Bears were No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and they were specifically No. 3 against tight ends. The Bears certainly have one of the league’s better safety duos in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Eddie Jackson.

In terms of targeting priority, Davis is behind at least running back Chris Thompson and wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Trey Quinn, and maybe even Paul Richardson. Plus, the Bears have a strong pass-rushing attack led by edge defenders Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd: The Redskins might scale back Davis’ routes and utilize him a little more as an inline blocker.

We have Davis projected for 2.5 receptions and 29.2 yards in the FantasyLabs Props Tool.

Sean Koerner: David Montgomery Under 64.5 Rushing Yards -105

There is no doubt that Montgomery is the Bears’ best running back. However, the three-way committee currently curbs his upside.

He saw the fewest snaps (38%) in Week 1 and the highest (44%) in Week 2. We also saw him lead the backfield with 18 rush attempts. So while he is trending toward becoming the workhorse back, Cohen and Davis will lower Montgomery’s floor/ceiling combo.

Another aspect that might be overlooked is that Trubisky will have a higher share of rush attempts. He has only four total attempts so far this season, but we could see more designed rush attempts, rollouts to take advantage of his mobility and get him going.

As with most props, this bet has a lot to do with the number. I wouldn’t blindly take the under on any Montgomery rushing yardage prop. I have him projected for 57.5 yards, so I would say there’s some value until about 60.5 — if the moneyline is around -115 once the line gets there, the value would pretty much be gone.

Matt LaMarca: David Montgomery Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Montgomery was more involved in the offense in Week 2, but the Bears’ backfield is still very much a time share. He played only 44% of snaps compared to 38% for Tarik Cohen and 25% for Mike Davis.

Montgomery did establish a clear lead in the rushing department — he totaled 18 carries compared to just seven for Cohen and Davis combined — but he’s yet to establish dominance in the receiving game. He’s caught only two passes and garnered just four targets, both of which rank third among the Bears’ RBs by a significant margin.

I’m fine with fading Montgomery in all of his receiving props, but this one is my favorite. I’d play the under up to -135.

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