Bears vs. Raiders Betting Odds & Picks: Who Has Edge in London?

Bears vs. Raiders Betting Odds & Picks: Who Has Edge in London? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chase Daniel

  • The NFL opens is 2019 London series with the Bears facing off against the Raiders.
  • Our staff analyzes this spread, including whether Chicago should be favored.

Bears vs. Raiders Betting Odds & Picks

  • Bears Spread: -5
  • Raiders Spread: +5
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Chicago Bears and Oakland Raiders head to London for the first neutral-site game of the season.

Even across the pond and with Chase Daniel expected to start, the Bears are 5-point favorites.

Our experts break this game down from every angle, featuring a staff pick and Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Bears-Raiders Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

The Bears have already ruled out Taylor Gabriel (concussion) and OL Ted Larsen (knee). Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) doesn’t seem likely to play since he was ruled out so quickly on Sunday, and he hasn’t practiced this week. Their defensive line could also be in trouble with Bilal Nichols (hand) and Akiem Hicks (knee) sitting out of practice all week as well.

The Raiders’ most notable injury is Tyrell Williams (foot), who hasn’t practiced at all, but they’re hopeful that he’ll play. Either way, it’s not an intriguing matchup for fantasy purposes. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Khalil Mack vs. Kolton Miller

I do think the Raiders have a situational advantage here. They know how to handle this unique experience, having played across the pond in 2014, 2017 and 2018. (They also played in Mexico City in 2016.) The Bears, meanwhile, haven’t played an international game since the Jay Cutler era in 2011 — aka this team has no experience dealing with a London game.

That manifested itself in how both teams approached travel this week. The Raiders left Monday, which makes much more sense than the Bears, who didn’t leave until Thursday. That gives Chicago significantly less time to adjust and recover from any jet lag. Also keep in mind that during the craziness of a London week, the Bears had to find a backup QB. If anything happens to Daniel, Chicago will really be in trouble.

Now, onto the biggest mismatch on the field. It has to be Mack (as it is most weeks), who will be seek revenge against the team that traded him away. He’s been nothing short of spectacular to start the season, leading all edge rushers in total pressures.

Khalil Mack told Deion Sanders on NFL Network that facing the #Raiders this week "is a game I've been looking forward to. I can't lie. It's going to be a big one for me."

— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) September 30, 2019

The Oakland offensive line actually isn’t as bad as many think, especially with Richie Incognito back at guard. Rodney Hudson is solid at center and Trent Brown is becoming one of the more underrated tackles in the NFL.

But the biggest concern is at left tackle on Derek Carr’s blindside, where you’d have to imagine Mack lines up for a majority of his snaps against Miller.

I know Carr is very conservative brand and gets the ball out quickly, but it doesn’t take much time for Mack to get to a quarterback and create havoc with a game-changing strip sack. And the Chicago secondary is more than capable of closely guarding Oakland’s subpar receivers, so Carr may need more time to find someone open on Sunday in Wembley Stadium.

Per Pro Football Focus, Miller ranks outside of the 50 overall among 68 offensive tackles with at least 100 snaps. And this isn’t just a fluke of a few bad games and/or a small sample size. Last year, he finished 62nd overall and in pass blocking among 64 tackles with at least 500 snaps. They’ll likely have to use Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs to constantly help chip and double Mack and/or use more two tight sets. Regardless, the constant threat of Mack alone should limit what Jon Gruden can do on offense.

Khalil Mack
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khalil Mack

If Mack can cause a turnover or two, it might not matter how much a Daniel-led offense can do overseas. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bears -5.5
  • Projected Total: 40

With Trubisky set to miss an extended period of time with a shoulder injury, this spread has essentially come down to how much he’s worth. The answer appears to be 1.5-2 points, which was the original range I came up with and the market appears to be in line with.

Daniel has been in this Matt Nagy system for two years now and is more than capable of managing the game to rely on the Bears’ solid defense and beat a weaker team like the Raiders. He was a check-down machine in his two starts last season, during which Tarik Cohen, Taquan Mizzell and Jordan Howard combined for 25 receptions.

This spread and total are right in line with what I have pegged, so we’ll need to look for value elsewhere. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Chris Raybon: Raiders Under 17.5 Points (-120)

To Stuck’s point, I could see the lack of overseas experience and starting a backup quarterback leading to the Bears stumbling on offense. On defense, not so much.

The Bears have yet to allow an opponent crack 16 points this season and have held opponents to 17 or fewer in 15-of-21 (71.4%) games since the start of last season. The Gruden-Carr marriage, meanwhile, has produced just 17.05 points per game in 19 games in which the Raiders were underdogs — read: essentially all of them — over that span.

Given that the Bears are yet to give up even 16 points this season, I’d bet this down to 17, as the odds are in favor of getting no worse than a push.

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