MNF Sharp Betting Report: Big Money Bets Hit Bengals vs. Steelers Over/Under

I don't know that the NFL schedulers were projecting a battle of 0-3 teams when they planned tonight's Bengals vs. Steelers Monday Night matchup. Well, maybe one 0-3 team could've been expected.

In any case, that's what we've got tonight as Andy Dalton and Mason Rudolph will both be going for their first win of the season.

Historically, winless teams have made for good bets in Week 4. Since 2005, they've covered the spread at a 59.1% rate (39-27-1) for a 14.8% return on investment. Of course, you won't be walking away with any money by betting on both teams tonight.

Sharps have instead turned to the total, at least as evidenced by line movement, SI Bet Signals and most clearly, the discrepancy between bet tickets and actual money.

Odds as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Bengals vs. Steelers Betting Odds, Sharp Report

• Spread: Steelers -3.5
• Over/under: 45
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

This total opened at 43.5 just about everywhere across the betting market. And in a somewhat rare occurrence for a primetime game that will surely draw its fair share of recreational bettors, the public isn't flocking to the over.

Instead, the overall ticket balance has been split right down the middle with the under holding the slightest of edges at 51%. Still, the total has managed to rise up to 45.

Part of the reason for that movement has been the not-so-split nature of the actual money being wagered. Seventy-six percent of dollars have hit the over, which, while certainly creating a monetary liability, is perhaps more noteworthy because of what it says about sharp activity.

With pros being more likely to make bigger bets than the average customer, that bet vs. money percentage discrepancy is a strong indication of sharp activity on the over.

Confirming that — at least on one occasion — has been a Sports Insights Bet Signal in the form of a steam move. Steam refers to an overload of smart money hitting the same bet across multiple sportsbooks over a short period of time, and is one of the most revealing displays of sharp action.

This move came earlier in the week at a total of 44.

If history is any indication, sharps are looking good on their projection. In the first quarter of the season (while small-sample overreactions are still present), taking an over after both teams are coming off an under has been profitable.

Since 2005, the simple strategy has won at a 61.8% rate (110-68-1) for a 20.7% ROI.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 43.5 to 45)