Chiefs vs Broncos Spread Picks, Player Props, Parlay: Our Best Bets for Thursday Night Football
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Chiefs vs Broncos Odds | Thursday Night Football (Week 6)
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
Chiefs vs Broncos jumpstart Week 6 in the NFL with a Thursday Night Football AFC West clash at Arrowhead Stadium, and we have picks against the spread, player props and even a same game parlay.
The game spread for Denver-Kansas City has the Chiefs as 10.5-point favorites while the game total can be found at 47.5 at most sportsbooks — though PointsBet has an over/under of 47 available.
We have two betting analysts who are backing the same side of the spread (Chiefs), with Brandon Anderson adding a wrinkle to his pick with the total to make a SGP. Our third pick is backing Kansas City’s first-half line (-6.5). The player prop is on Isiah Pacheco – our props expert likes the Chiefs running back to run wild on Thursday night given how catastrophic Denver has been against opposing ground attacks.
Continue reading for our Chiefs vs Broncos best bets and wall-to-wall TNF betting coverage.
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Chiefs vs Broncos Best Bets: Player Props, Picks Against Spread
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Gross. This game is gross. This pick is gross.
The Broncos are dead last in Defensive DVOA, gave up 70 points to the Dolphins and somehow made it worse by giving up 59 to the Bears and Jets after that. Now, I'm backing this historically bad Denver defense on the road to cover and hit the under. Whew.
I'm not going to sit here and make a disingenuous case for the Broncos. Denver's lost 15 straight games to the Chiefs. Their last win was in September 2015 and required two TDs in the final 40 seconds. Patrick Mahomes owns this team and should theoretically hang any number he wants on this pathetic defense.
This is 100% playing a bad number and trusting the trends while holding my nose and buying low on Denver. Sean Payton (61% against the spread) and Russell Wilson (67%) have been great as underdogs and even better as division dogs (71% each). The two are 11-1 ATS combined as underdogs of more than a TD. Mahomes is 41% ATS as a favorite over a TD. The trends support road double-digit underdogs early in the season and in division games. They also like terrible ATS teams like Denver this far into the season. What goes down must come up … ?
I don't see Denver covering this in a shootout. Both of these teams have played a bit slower on long drives, and the Chiefs lean in that direction when protecting leads. Primetime unders are 60% the last four years, and Wilson road unders are 52-39 (57%) for his career. The strong winds lean under, too, as does a short week with Travis Kelce playing through injury.
I hate it. I hate all of it. But when I'm not confident in a pick, we may as well make it worth it. Give me Broncos +11 and Under 47 together as a same-game parlay. Hold your nose and play the number.
Chiefs vs. Broncos
I typically like to avoid betting on Thursday Night Football, and at a quick glance, this is a textbook game to avoid because of Denver’s historically bad defense through five weeks. The Broncos have allowed 0.32 EPA per dropback, which roughly means that opponents are averaging one point scored for every three dropbacks. That’s by far the worst mark in the league, and it gets even worse when you consider four of those five opposing quarterbacks were Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Jimmy Garappolo.
The total has crashed throughout the week from 51.5 at the open down to the current 47.5 number. The market adjusted downward on the total in part because of how slowly and methodically Kansas City plays when leading in the second half, which is the standard under Andy Reid and a major reason why the Chiefs are so poor as a huge favorite in the Mahomes era.
Despite the total crashing, the market hasn’t moved at all toward Denver since a +10.5 open, although DraftKings finally budged and upped it to +11 on Wednesday.
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Mahomes is just 14-20-1 (41%) against the spread (ATS) when a favorite of more than a touchdown. Unlike Miami, which ran up the score on the Broncos, Kansas City is the exact opposite offensively, preferring to sit on the lead and leave the backdoor wide open. Denver is quietly 12th in EPA per play offensively, 13th in passing success rate and should have success moving the ball enough to lessen the number of possessions for the Chiefs to separate.
The Chiefs are still playing in cruise control mode and don’t look to be at their best on either side of the ball. Kansas City squeaked by with one-score wins against the Jets and Vikings in the last two weeks and appears to still be overvalued as Super Bowl champions. I find it notable that the market has steamed hard against them close to post in three of their five games.
The Broncos are going nowhere this season, which will effectively be over if they fall to 1-5 on Thursday night, but the offense is moving the ball well enough to stay inside this number.
Road divisional underdogs of 10 or more points cover 56% of the time, per our BetLabs system. I’m holding my nose and backing Denver at +10 or better.
Pick: Broncos +11
Chiefs vs. Broncos
By Ricky Henne
A dirty little secret about the Chiefs is that for such an electric offense, they go ultra-conservative in the second half. It makes sense when you think about it: Kansas City races out to big leads, then goes at a snail’s pace in the second half to limit the opposition’s drives.
Just how drastic is the Chiefs’ offensive output from half to half? Well, they average the fifth-most points in the first half (17.6) and the fifth-fewest (8.0) in the second.
At the same time, Kansas City’s defense is lights out early on. The Chiefs give up the fourth-fewest points in the first half (7.6), which combined with the prowess of Patrick Mahomes and company, has them averaging a 10.0-point lead at halftime.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have been disastrous out of the gate. The 17.6 points they allow in the first half is the second most in the league and is identical to the 17.6 points the Chiefs average over the first 30 minutes of action.
Additionally, even though Denver’s offense has been pretty good, averaging the 10th-most first half points (13.4), they’ve faced five of the 10 worst first half defenses in the league. They’ll also have to deal with 76,000 raucous Arrowhead Stadium fans in primetime, which is no small feat to overcome.
Add it all up and I love the Chiefs as 6.5-point favorites in the first half. If I end up the victim of good process-bad result, so be it. But I’m such a fan of Kansas City covering by at least a touchdown that I’m putting multiple units on it. There are simply too many significant trends and data points for me to ignore here.
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Chiefs vs. Broncos
By Sam Farley
It’s been a mixed season for Isiah Pacheco. He hasn’t hit the heights that we saw down the stretch for the Chiefs last season, but he’s still picked up three touchdowns and 325 rushing yards. While not elite, he’s a good running back.
That won’t matter on Thursday when he's up against a historically bad Broncos defense that can't stop the run. They’ve allowed 150-plus more rushing yards after five games than the second-worst rush defense in the NFL (Bengals).
On Sunday, we saw Breece Hall go nuclear on them, not surprising when they’ve averaged 187 rushing yards against per game.
It’s Pacheco’s turn to have himself a day.
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