Broncos vs. Colts Odds & Picks: Bet on Indy to Cover?

Broncos at Colts Odds & Picks

• Odds: Colts -5.5
• Over/Under: 43
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Broncos couldn't beat a Chiefs team that lost Patrick Mahomes to injury last Thursday, so how will they fare against a surging Colts team?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner's projected betting odds and a staff pick.

Broncos-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both are healthy

The Broncos should get OL Ja'Wuan James (knee) back after he resumed practicing in full. Otherwise, the main absence may be S Will Parks (hand) who hasn't practiced at all this week.

The Colts will be thrilled to get S Malik Hooker (knee) back after he's been out since Week 3. Most other players should be on track to play since they've been practicing in a limited fashion. The one exception is DL Jabaal Sheard (foot) who was downgraded to DNP on Thursday after being full on Wednesday. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Justin Houston and Denico Autry vs. Broncos Offensive Line

Denver is ranked 29th in adjusted sack rate (9.8%) after the Chiefs torched its line for nine sacks on Thursday. The Broncos also traded their second-leading receiver (Emmanuel Sanders) this week, meaning Joe Flacco might have to hold onto the ball even longer with nowhere to go.

This sets up well for Houston and Autry, who have each earned top-25 pass rush grades from Pro Football Focus at their respective positions. With linebacker Darius Leonard returning last week and safety Malik Hooker due back this week, the back end should give Houston and Autry more time to add to their 6.5 combined sacks and 14 combined QB hits. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Colts -6
• Projected Total: 41.5

The Broncos entered Week 7 on a two-game win streak then took a quick 6-0 lead over the Chiefs, but it was all downhill from there. The Chiefs scored 30 unanswered points, then to add insult to injury (literally), outscored the Broncos 10-0 after Mahomes was knocked out of the game.

With the Broncos' season pretty much lost, it’ll be interesting to see if/when they decide Drew Lock is healthy enough to play and if he gets his first start in the near future. (The over/under could be after their Week 10 bye.) They’ve already unloaded Sanders, sending him to the 49ers for draft picks.

I bring all of this up because while I show a bit of value on the Broncos, it’s crucial to factor in what’s driving teams once we get to the second half of the season: Are they making a playoff push, or are they playing for their future? Given that they’re starting to eye beyond 2019, I’m going to lay off the Broncos for the time being. — Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Chad Millman: Colts -5.5

Here's what I keep thinking: Within hours of Andrew Luck retiring, the Colts signed Jacoby Brissett to a $30 million deal. They didn’t wait to see how he would do this season. They didn’t look for a replacement because they knew what they had.

While bookmakers and gamblers undervalued them for several weeks, the front office had already built an impressive combination of effective running game, efficient passing game and an offensive line that gets more social media love than any of the Colts skill players.

Other than laying a predictable egg against Oakland — too much hype and over-adjustment that week — this team has methodically delivered. I believe that the Broncos are the team that didn’t show up against the Chiefs — remember they were down seven when Mahomes was injured and couldn't stop and immobile Matt Moore from slinging dimes.

The Colts are a great value pick at under seven points. But get it fast: Wiseguys and the public alike are betting the Colts right now. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]