Cardinals Beat Cowboys in One of the Biggest Upsets in Recent Memory
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The Cardinals upset the Cowboys as +11.5 underdogs — and as long as +510 on the moneyline — in one of the biggest NFL upsets in recent years.
Arizona had been as long as +13 on the spread before settling at its closing price on Sunday afternoon of +11.5.
It's the largest upset by an NFL team since the Panthers shocked Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Oct. 2022 as 13-point underdogs.
Before that, the most notable upset was by the Jaguars as +15.5 underdogs against Carson Wentz and the Colts, who needed a win in Week 18 to ensure a playoff spot. The embarrassment helped shuttle Wentz out of Indianapolis — and soon, out of the league.
Across all major American sportsbooks, roughly 80% of the public money was on the Cowboys to cover tonight, according to the Action Network's proprietary betting data.
Biggest NFL Single-Game Upsets — Since 1980
 December, 2020: New York Jets (+17.5) at Los Angeles Rams |
 December 1995: Washington Redskins (+17.5) at Dallas Cowboys |
 December 2019: Miami Dolphins (+17.5) at New England Patriots |
December 1992: New York Jets (+17) at Buffalo Bills |
 September 2018: Buffalo Bills (+16.5) at Minnesota Vikings |
 November 2021: Jacksonville Jaguars (+16) vs. Buffalo Bills |
 November 1992: Indianapolis Colts (+16) vs. Buffalo Bills |
 December 1985: New Orleans Saints (+16) at San Francisco 49ers |
The Cowboys as -11.5 favorites represent the 11th-worst road loss in the last 20 years, according to our data guru Evan Abrams. It's the first time a double digit road favorite has lost outright in a season's first three games since 1990.
The Cowboys had been, alongside the Chiefs, the biggest favorites in a single game so far this football season. While Kansas City took take care of business with a blowout of the Bears, the Cowboys faltered with their No. 1 ranked defense giving up 28 points to a lowly Josh Dobbs.
Dallas' roughly -750 odds on the moneyline implied odds of over 88% that the Cowboys would win this game.
The advanced metrics community is reeling, too. After a dominant two weeks, the Cowboys had been the No. 1 overall team in DVOA and Expected Points Added per play. Dak Prescott, too, had been rated the second-best quarterback in the league in EPA per play + Completion Percentage Over Expected (EPA/play + CPOE).
The vaunted Cowboys defense had been rated — alongside with the Browns defense — as eons better than any other defense in the league, according to DVOA.
But cornerback Trevon Diggs — who is now out for the year — was sorely missed on Sunday. And matchups against the Jets and Giants, two bottom-feeder offenses, drastically skewed those early year numbers.
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