Chargers vs. Dolphins Betting Picks & Odds: Will Miami Finally Cover?

Chargers vs. Dolphins Betting Picks & Odds: Will Miami Finally Cover? article feature image

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Rosen

Chargers at Dolphins Betting Picks & Odds

  • Spread: Chargers -15.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Dolphins are 0-3 against the spread. They’ve failed to cover massive spreads against the Patriots (-19) and Cowboys (-22.5). And now they’re double-digit underdogs against the Chargers.

Is this the week to bet on them to cover?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Chargers-Dolphins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Dolphins

Allen Hurns (concussion) is likely out, but the Chargers are extremely banged up with six guys missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, including: Mike Williams (back), Travis Benjamin (hip), Virgil Green (groin) and Casey Hayward (back).

Justin Jackson (calf) was also added to the injury report on Thursday, but he did get in a limited session. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Chargers Run Offense vs. Dolphins Run Defense

The Chargers don’t have an especially great running game, but it’s certainly not bad. They’re fifth in the league with 5.2 running back yards per carry (per Football Outsiders), and Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have done a great job filling in for Melvin Gordon during his holdout.

But the Dolphins are awful against the run, and because they forfeit so many points, teams run against them at will. They are No. 30 with 5.32 running back yards and No. 31 with 5.62 adjusted line yards allowed per run. They’re also No. 31 overall with an 18.4% run defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

And in terms of raw volume, no team has allowed more production to opposing backfields than the Dolphins have — 101-535-4 rushing and 10-105-1 receiving) — and that shouldn’t be a surprise: Gone from last year’s front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn as well as tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. Year over year, this defense has just been demolished.

The Dolphins have a league-worst 9% stuffed run rate, which means that teams are getting positive yards against them on 91% of their runs. They’re simply incapable of consistently getting stops when an opposing offense decides it’s going to run against them.

Against the Chargers running game, the Dolphins defense will be defenseless. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chargers -15
  • Projected Total: 44.5

Here we go again.

The 2019 Dolphins could be one of the worst teams we have ever seen. They’re in full tank mode and seem destined to land the No. 1 overall pick in the loaded 2020 draft class. But while there’s a decent chance they go 0-16, it’s highly unlikely they go 0-16 against the spread.

The market might have to go to great lengths to help them achieve their first cover, which could very well be this week at home against the underachieving 1-2 Chargers. I am showing some slight value on the Dolphins here, but I can no longer in good conscience bet hard-earned money on a team clearly OK with losing.

I’ve adjusted their team power rating to a depth I’ve never seen before. To put things in perspective, the 2018 Cardinals — at their lowest point in my power ratings a season ago — would be 5.5-point home favorites and likely 1-point road favorites against the 2019 Dolphins. If you recall just how bad the Cardinals were last season, that should send chills down your spine. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Sonny Banks: Dolphins ML +750

The Dolphins are bad, probably historically bad. There’s no other way to put it. That said, there’s always a price to get involved with bad teams.

The Dolphins are severely disadvantaged in terms of talent, but I’ll always refuse to buy into the “not playing hard” or “players are tanking” narratives. All three of their games have been against contenders, and while each eventually snowballed, I did like the aggressiveness vs. Cowboys in the first half. Before the drops, the turnovers and general lack of talent became evident, we had a Miami team going toe-to-toe with Dallas. It’s impossible to predict how that game would’ve unfolded had the Dolphins converted on one of their many opportunities.

Against the Chargers, a team familiar with self-inflicted wounds with injury concerns and offensive line issues, the price is right this week.

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