The Buffalo Bills (5-2) host the Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) in the marquee game of NFL Week 9 on Sunday, Nov. 2. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Bills on the spread (Chiefs -1.5), with the over/under set at 52.5 total points. Kansas City is a -130 moneyline favorite and Buffalo is a +110 underdog.
Below, you can find my Chiefs vs Bills picks, which include Josh Allen props, game props, same-game parlays and more.
Chiefs vs Bills Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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  | 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chiefs vs Bills Odds
- Chiefs vs Bills Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Bills +110
- Chiefs vs Bills Spread: Chiefs -1.5, Bills +1.5
- Chiefs vs Bills Total: 52.5
Chiefs vs Bills odds via bet365
Chiefs vs Bills Preview
This is our 10th Patrick Mahomes–Josh Allen meeting, and for my money, this is the game of the year and the best rivalry in the NFL. This is also one of my favorite games to bet every time — because we've seen it so much we already know the script!
Close your eyes and imagine Bills–Chiefs. What do you see?
It's back and forth all game. It's close late. Mahomes and Allen go mano a mano. The last team with the ball wins.
Easy, right? But how exactly do you bet that?
Let's start with some of the keys to the matchup.
The Chiefs are coming off short rest after playing on Monday night, but they weren't exactly stressed in that one, coasting all second half to an easy win over the Commanders. Kansas City is heading into its bye after this game so it should be able to empty the tank here.
The offense will be short-handed, though.
It looks like the Chiefs offensive line could again be without T Josh Simmons and G Trey Smith, and RB Isiah Pacheco may be sidelined as well. Buffalo's run defense has been terrible, so that's a big loss. Kareem Hunt would likely get the RB workload, but he isn't explosive at all these days.
Typically, this rivalry has been a great spot to back Travis Kelce, but he was completely invisible in both Bills games last season: two catches for 19 yards in one, two catches for eight yards in the other. Maybe those short YAC passes are for Rashee Rice now.
Buffalo has injury issues, too.
Ed Oliver is out again, and that means the Bills are missing both tackles on defense with Daquon Jones out. Buffalo's defense is already the weak link in this game, pretty clearly.
Both offenses are awesome, and the Chiefs defense has improved over the past month and is fringe top 10 in many metrics. The Bills defense ranks 20th by DVOA, league average against the pass and third worst against the run. It's been downright bad at times and looks very gettable against the Chiefs.
The Bills are also missing Josh Palmer, leaving an already lackadaisical WR corps even shorter. Khalil Shakir has been a go-to weapon and security blanket against Kansas City, but the emergence of Chiefs rookie CB Nohl Williams could allow Kansas City to put Trent McDuffie in the slot and follow Shakir around, minimizing him.
James Cook and the run game have been good for Buffalo, but with the subpar defense and lack of receiving help, it's hard not to see this as man versus team, with Josh Allen having to play the part of Superman and needing to do it all on his own like he has so often in the past.
I think the Chiefs are the better team, though not by much.
I'd make this close to a pick'em on the road, which means no value on Chiefs -1.5 but not much on Buffalo either.
Chiefs vs Bills Prop Prediction
I see very little value betting the spread or moneyline in this edition of Chiefs-Bills — predicting coin flips is a losing endeavor.
We know this game will likely be a back-and-forth affair, so can we predict the ebbs and flows?
The Bills have been much worse early in games.
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in the first half this season, but they're 5-2 ATS in the second half, and Josh Allen is 67% ATS in the second half for his career.
Could that mean a Chiefs 1st half & Bills 2nd Half same-game parlay?
Perhaps, but that feels like threading the needle and hoping halftime lands at the right moment.
These teams have met nine times with Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The Bills have led at some point in all nine matchups. In fact, both teams have had the lead in all but one of those matchups.
At DraftKings, under Team Props > Comeback, we can bet on the Chiefs to win from behind at +215. That's my preferred way to bet on a Chiefs win — and it's hit in all five Mahomes wins against Buffalo.
If you like the Bills to win, history says that's a profitable way to bet Buffalo.
Heck, you could even bet both together for either team to win from behind and profit historically.
Pick: Chiefs to Win From Behind (+215)
Chiefs vs Bills 4th Quarter Prop Pick
If we think this is a back-and-forth game that is close late, we can bet on that, too.
We almost always get fireworks late in this rivalry.
Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in all but one matchup, which was a playoff game. And at most books, we can bet that!
You can bet "Both teams to score in the fourth quarter" at -190 at bet365. That may feel steep, but an implied 65% is well short of the actual hit rate of 89% so far in the rivalry.
If you don't like betting the juice standalone, that's also addable as a parlay leg at many books.
Pick: Both Teams to Score in 4th Quarter (-190)
Chiefs vs Bills Parlay
There's another way to bet on a close game late.
The last six Chiefs-Bills matchups have been decided by three, nine, three, three, four and six points.
The six came in overtime, meaning regulation ended at zero. The nine was actually a two-point game with two minutes left until Josh Allen ripped off an incredible 26-yard TD run through the Chiefs defense to win MVP and put the game away.
Basically, history tells us this is a tie or field-goal game late and likely ends that way — so let's bet it!
Build an SGP of Chiefs +6.5 and Bills +6.5 to play neither team to win by at least seven points. You can bet that at +107 at FanDuel.
If you're a regular reader and you think these bets sound familiar, it's because they should!
I bet them almost every Chiefs-Bills game because they hit almost every time. And that brings us to my favorite prop on the board: Josh Allen rushing overs.
Pick: Neither Team to Win by 7 Parlay (+106)
Chiefs vs Bills Player Props: Josh Allen
As I've said for a couple seasons now, the Bills save Josh Allen's legs for the biggest games.
The numbers don't lie. Go back through the game log any year, circle the big games on the schedule, and voila, Allen's rushing numbers magically spike in those games.
It's happened already this season.
Look at Buffalo's schedule. What are its biggest games so far? Baltimore in the opener, before the Ravens crashed, and the big division game against New England.
Allen averaged 11.5 rushing attempts per game in those two matchups — he averaged just 5.2 against the rest of the schedule.
That's pretty close to what we've seen against the Chiefs through nine games: Allen averages 10.3 rushing attempts per game for 45 yards, a significant boost from 6.8 attempts per game for his career (and even higher in playoff matchups).
These teams rank second and third in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season, behind only Dallas.
Buffalo has already faced Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Tyrod Taylor, so that may not mean much.
Patrick Mahomes has gone over his posted 26.5 rushing yards line in six of eight games this season, but his rushing stats have been inconsistent in these games against the Bills. I don't mind it, but I don't need it.
The Chiefs have allowed the most rushing attempts to quarterbacks of any team in the NFL at 50 (6.3 per game). Five QBs have rushed at least six times, and five have run for at least 27 yards. They've also allowed three short TD runs to QBs.
So, do we bet Allen for rushing attempts, yards or any anytime touchdown … how about all three?!
At 35.5 rushing yards (-114, BetRivers), Allen's line is bumped from its usual but still not high enough. He's run for at least 32 yards in all nine Chiefs games, giving us an incredible floor.
Allen has at least 50 rushing yards in over half of his Chiefs matchups (5-of-9), so that's worth playing at +190 (bet365).
I like rushing attempts even better.
Allen has at least eight rushing attempts in all but one Chiefs game, and he had seven in that one. We're getting plus money on over 7.5 rushing attempts (+102, FanDuel) so that's a no brainer, and 10+ attempts at +375 (bet365) may be my favorite bet of the entire bunch. Allen has double-digit rushing attempts in 7-of-9 games (78%!) against the Chiefs!
And when Allen does run eight times, he almost always finds the end zone.
Since the start of last season, Allen has an Anytime TD in 15-of-19 games (79%) when he has at least eight rushing attempts, and he's had multiple scores in eight of those 15.
In a game with a total in the 50s, an Anytime TD bet at +115 (Fanatics) is an easy click, and 2+ TDs is even juicier at +800 (FanDuel).
If you like, you can pick a few of your favorites and put together a Same Game Parlay. You'll even get a little negative correlation boost with some choices.
If you want a futures angle? That one's pretty easy.
Just bet Mahomes or Allen for MVP, whichever one you think wins. The winner is in clear position for a top-two seed in the AFC, vital for MVP positioning, and the head-to-head win will be huge in such a big game.
Picks:
- Josh Allen over 35.5 rushing yards; 50+ yards (+190)
- Josh Allen over 7.5 rushing attempts; 10+ rushes (+375)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD (+115); 2+ TDs (+800)
