Cleveland Browns Betting Primer: Super Bowl Odds, Win Total Pick, More
Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Baker Mayfield
Cleveland Browns Odds
If you’re new to betting, the Browns’ +4000 Super Bowl odds mean a $100 bet would net $4,100 if they won. [Convert odds using our betting odds calculator.]
The Browns haven’t had a winning season since 2007, but their win total is right on the border. With a potential playoff spot on the line, Baker Mayfield and Cleveland will need to improve quickly.
Our analysts take a closer look at the team’s win total as well as key questions facing them in 2020.
Browns Win Total
Sean Koerner, the Director of Predictive Analytics at Action, breaks down how he’s betting the Browns’ win total.
Expectations were high for the Browns heading into 2019 and they fell well short.
Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t quite gel in their first season together. Mayfield specifically was to blame for their -8 turnover margin as he threw 21 interceptions (second-most). It resulted in the Browns firing Freddie Kitchens and bringing in Kevin Stefanski as the new head coach.
Stefanski led the run-heavy offense in Minnesota last season and is expected to install a similar scheme in Cleveland. He couldn’t ask for a better running back duo in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the offensive line should improve with the addition of veteran Jack Conklin and first-rounder Jedrick Wills, and the Browns should run more 2-TE sets, which means more Austin Hooper and David Njoku.
A more conservative offense should limit the number of turnovers by Mayfield and allow him to regain his confidence. The Browns also have the third-easiest schedule, which should play right into their more conservative approach on offense.
I’m very bullish on the Browns in 2020, but I’m right in line with their 8.5 win total. Instead, the best way to invest in their upside is their odds to win the Super Bowl — they could thrive in the uncertain environment this season.
PICK: Browns to win Super Bowl (+4000; bet to +3800)
Key Questions for the Browns
Stuckey, a football betting analyst and host of The Action Network podcast, runs through three key questions for the Browns heading into 2020.
1. Have the Browns solved their problems at tackle? The offensive tackle position has plagued Cleveland in recent years, but the outlook is rosier for 2020. The Browns signed right tackle Jack Conklin and drafted Jedrick Wills in the first round. If Wills can naturally transition to left tackle, a position he never played at Alabama, they will have significantly upgraded at both tackle spots.
Bringing Bill Callahan on board to coach the offensive line should benefit the entire group but early reports indicate it may take Wills some time to get to where the Browns need him.
2. How much will the coaching changes benefit Cleveland? Coaching has been absolutely miserable in Cleveland of late, but I personally loved all the offseason hires.
The injuries in the secondary to Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams certainly haven’t made things any easier for new defensive coordinator Joe Woods, who wanted to use more hybrid and three-safety looks. How long it takes to translate on the field could make or break the season, but the future is bright in Cleveland. At a minimum, they hopefully clean up the incessant penalties and missed tackles that killed the Browns last year.
3. Can Baker Mayfield play more consistently? Mayfield should benefit from an improved offensive line in addition to Kevin Stefanski’s play-calling and scheme, which are much better suited for Mayfield’s strengths and weaknesses. He also has an abundance of skill position talent. There are no more excuses for Mayfield.
It may take some time, but the potential is there for Cleveland to peak late, which is why I added a Super Bowl future. The Browns do play in a very tough division, but we do get the expanded playoff format this season.