Commanders vs Bears Player Props: Expert Projections Back Curtis Samuel, J.D. McKissic
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Curtis Samuel.
Right now, the Chicago offense is such a mess that I didn't see anything on Action Labs that popped for that unit. I'm not saying Washington has its act together and is a stout unit, but it at least has more proven playmakers at this level.
Both of these picks are using Sean Koerner's projections at Action Labs. Let's dive in.
Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
We’re going to keep the totals low tonight.
Samuel is projected for 6.2 rushing yards by Action Labs, but his total is just 3.5 at BetMGM and DraftKings. He has played 10 games since joining Washington before last season, and he’s cleared this number in half of those, including the first three games of this season.
Samuel is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this season, so all we need to clear this prop should be one carry. He has eight on the season, although none of them have come in the last three games.
The addition of Brian Robinson Jr. in the Commanders backfield could be seen as a hinderance to Samuel getting touches, but Washington has to go out of its way to run the ball through Samuel.
Samuel is averaging eight touches per game this season between catches and rushing attempts, with 20% of those coming on the ground. So, again, if he’s averaging eight touches per game, we can assume one of those will be a rush that will allow us to hit this over.
Over 2.5 Receptions (-156, FanDuel)
This one is pretty straightforward.
McKissic has three or more receptions in 12 of 16 games he's played in since the start of last season, including all five this season. He actually had four or more catches in 10 of those 16 games, as well.
There is definitely uncertainty in the Washington backfield, but what’s set in stone is McKissic’s pass-catching role. He had seven targets last week against Tennessee, and he also led the Commanders backfield in snaps.
No one is expecting the Commanders to unleash a downfield assault against the Bears. Expect the short-passing game to remain a significant part of the Washington offense, led by McKissic.
This number is 2.5 (-156) at FanDuel. You can get over 3.5 receptions (+130) at BetRivers. Having cleared 3.5 in more than half of his games since the start of last season, that might be worth a look at plus money.