Cowboys vs. Seahawks Betting Odds & Picks: Back Dallas To Cover On Sunday
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott
Cowboys vs. Seahawks Odds
The Cowboys and Seahawks are both coming off thrilling wins in Week 2. Should you back Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott in what should be a close, high-scoring affair on Sunday?
Let’s break down why the value is on Dallas as a dog.
Wilson enters Week 3 as the hottest quarterback in football, completing 82.5% of his passes for 9.7 yards per attempt and a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In this spot, you can bet on him looking to attack the left side of the field, where Dallas ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
The Cowboys will be without cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) and Anthony Brown (ribs), which means Wilson gets to pick on rookie Trevon Diggs.
The biggest concern with the Seahawks offense is simply that it’s a near mathematical certainty they won’t be able to sustain their otherworldly efficiency: They’re averaging 36.5 points per game, second-most in the NFL. And a good chunk of their scoring is coming from outside the red zone, as they’re just 21st with six red-zone trips. And on those red-zone trips, they’re an unsustainable 6-for-6.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s defense will wow no one right now, but he has his unit in the top five in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 4-of-9 trips. His unit is also top five in fewest missed tackles (nine).
The Cowboys are capable of forcing Wilson to go up and down the field and getting a stop or two in the red zone, which puts them in great position to come out on top in a shootout.
The Seahawks will be vulnerable to teams like the Cowboys, who can stick with them on the scoreboard. Because for as well as Wilson is playing, the Seahawks are just as capable of giving it all back.
Consider that despite Wilson’s monster start, Seattle barely has an edge over its opponents in net yards per pass attempt (8.4 vs. 8.2). A secondary that looked good on paper took a hit when nickelback Marquise Blair (knee) went on IR this week, while cornerback Quinton Dunbar (knee) didn’t practice Friday and is questionable.
Seattle has been attacked through the air. The Seahawks have given up 649 air yards, which leads the league by 159. It’s unthinkable that they almost lost last Sunday night to the Patriots given Wilson’s five touchdown passes, and Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Co. will pose more issues than Cam Newton throwing to one good receiver.
Left tackle Tyron Smith (neck) missed practice Friday and is listed as questionable, but the Cowboys posted 40 points on the Falcons without him last weekend and won’t face much of a pass rush in Seattle.
I love the Seahawks’ upside this season and have backed them in each of the first two weeks, but this is a smart spot to fade them.
They’ve been overachieving while the Cowboys haven’t played their best ball, yet have lost by three points and won by one. And if the Seahawks don’t make that goal-line stand on the final play last week, this spread would likely be closer to -3, which is what I make it.
This is the classic type of situation in which bettors tend to overrate Seattle and overlook Dallas. Dating back to 2015, Seattle has covered in just 2-of-8 games at The Link when on the second leg of back-to-back home games, according to our Bet Labs data. And since 2017, they’re 7-12-1 (37%) against the spread as a home favorite, winning by six or more points just 30% of the time.
Prescott, meanwhile, has led the Cowboys to a 12-5 (71%) ATS record as an underdog of more than one point
Especially with glaring issues in pass defense, the Seahawks don’t often post huge margins of victory. They’re 13-5 over the 18 regular-season games they’ve played since the start of last season but only 7-of-18 (38.8%) have resulted in wins by six or more points.
I would play the Cowboys down to +3.5.
PICK: Cowboys +5.5