Dolphins vs. Jaguars Betting Picks: Our Spread & Total Bets for Thursday Night Football
Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick
- With a short spread and total that has skyrocketed since opening, our staff is unanimous on how they're betting Thursday Night Football.
- Find out why they like the Jaguars to cover as 3-point favorites vs. the Dolphins, the under and this Gardner Minshew prop bet.
- Find their full analysis of the odds and their picks for this primetime matchup below.
The 0-2 Miami Dolphins travel five hours north to take on the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.
Who has the edge in Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Gardner Minshew? And how should you approach a total that has ticked up as much as five full points since opening?
Our staff breaks down how they’re betting this primetime game.
Dolphins vs. Jaguars Picks
Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
Chris Raybon: Jaguars -3
After back-to-back covers to start 2020 — including an outright upset of the Colts in Week 1 — Gardner Minshew’s career against the spread (ATS) mark stands at 9-5. Four of those five losses have come against quarterbacks who are in a different league than Ryan Fitzpatrick, though: Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and the 2019 Saints’ version of Teddy Bridgewater, who covered all five starts in Drew Brees’ place.
Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, is slightly below-average ATS in his career as a starter, compiling a 65-68-6 (48.9%) ATS mark overall, according to our Bet Labs database. More importantly, he’s a dismal 12-22-3 (35.3%) as an underdog with a spread between +1 and +4.5.
This is the perfect time to get in on young quarterbacks before the market catches up, and this season has been no different.
Minshew is 2-0 ATS, and I rate the Jags as one point better than the Dolphins on a neutral field. It would be closer to 1.5-2 if the Jags were healthier. Either way, I like this at a field goal or below.
Additionally, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet the Jags live if they fall behind early, as Minshew is tied for second in fourth-quarter comebacks (four) among quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts since he entered the league.
Brandon Anderson: Jaguars -3
Well, this sure looks like a Thursday night stinker. I’m definitely going to need some action to get me interested in this one, and luckily, I really like this Jaguars line.
Look, I thought Jacksonville was going to stink, too. I projected the Jaguars at 2-14, and if they cover this spread, they’ll already have my two projected wins. But it’s clear at this point that this is not the Jaguars team everyone expected. The franchise might be better off tanking for Trevor Lawrence, but the players are fighting hard and playing well. The Jags beat the Colts and pushed the Titans all the way, and those are two likely playoff teams. Miami is not.
Jacksonville’s offense has been a revelation under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, and Minshew looks good enough right now that Jags fans might not need to tank for a QB after all.
Jacksonville is slinging it around and putting points on the board, and Miami’s defense got shredded by Josh Allen and Buffalo a week ago. These Jaguars receivers have to be drooling over a secondary that should be missing Byron Jones on a short week after getting hurt this past Sunday.
Suddenly, everything is coming up Jaguars — even Blake Bortles got a new contract this week.
DUUUUUUVALLL. This one is for Jason Mendoza and Minshew Mania.
I’ll play the Jags to -3.5.
Travis Reed: Under 49
My model has this total at closer to 43, and when the market opened at 44, I didn’t think I was going to have a bet on this game. Since then, the market has shot up to 48.5 points in most places, but if you shop around with our NFL odds page, you can get 49 at PointsBet.
We’ve seen more points in the first two weeks of the 2020 NFL season than in any season before. Bettors see all of the points being scored and it’s no surprise that they would be eager to bet the over.
I think the biggest cause for the onslaught of points we’ve seen thus far is offenses are allowed to audible and get their protections set up without dealing with crowd noise. This has in turn seen a drastic drop in offensive holding penalties, which are notorious drive killers. But with the Jaguars having fans in the stands, we’ll see how much that affects the Dolphins’ ability to audible and get their plays set up in a louder environment.
I don’t think we’ll see as much scoring as the market is expecting on Thursday night. I would bet the under down to 46.5 points.
[Bet the Under now at PointsBet risk-free up to $250]
Sean Koerner: Under 49
The public clearly wants to watch a shootout between two exciting quarterbacks as 77% of the tickets and 94% of the money have come in on the over as of writing (find real-time public betting data here). That action has pushed the total as high as 49 at some sportsbooks — 2.5 points higher than my projection of 46.5.
I’m fading the public and saying this will be a lower-scoring affair than expected.
This matchup should be close, forcing both teams to operate more balanced conservative game plans on a short week. The Jaguars also play at the NFL’s slowest pace (32) in game neutral situations while the Dolphins are around league average (17th).
I would bet this down to 47.5.
[Bet the Under now at PointsBet risk-free up to $250]
Mike Randle: Gardner Minshew Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
Through the first two games, the Dolphins defense has been the NFL’s worst: Miami ranks 32nd in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, including last overall against the pass. The Dolphins have also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks, allowing the second-most fantasy points behind only the Falcons.
Miami has also been soft against quarterback rushing production, allowing the most attempts, third-most rushing yards, and two touchdowns. Minshew’s running ability has been largely underrated, as he’s averaged 23.5 rushing yards in his NFL career. So far this year, he’s right at 19 rushing yards per game.
Jacksonville enters this game as a favorite with an over/under that has climbed as high as 49. Bettors are expecting points, even though the Jaguars’ lead wide receiver D.J. Chark is questionable with back and chest injuries.
Through the first two games the Dolphins have one of the highest blitz rates in the league, as they try to create pressure in any way possible. This will lead to running lanes for Minshew, and I expect him to at least hit his seasonal average against a poor Miami defense.
I’m taking Minshew to have a big overall game on Thursday Night Football and would be this prop up to 19.5 yards.