Eagles vs. Bills Odds & Picks: Should You Buy Low on Philly?

Eagles vs. Bills Odds & Picks: Should You Buy Low on Philly? article feature image

David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz

  • The Buffalo Bills host the Philadelphia Eagles as short home favorites on Sunday.
  • Our experts analyze the betting odds and make their picks.

Eagles at Bills Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Bills -2
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles that have failed to cover consecutive games, including by at least two touchdowns in the most recent one, are 155-112-9 (58%) against the spread since 2003. And as an underdog? 101-65-8 (60.8%).

So should you bank on that trend and back Philly in Week 8?

Our experts break down every angle of Eagles-Bills, featuring analysis of the betting odds and staff spread picks.

Eagles-Bills Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bills

The Bills don’t have anyone of note on their injury report, and most of their players are on track to suit up.

The Eagles are still a disaster on the injury front with six players failing to practice on Wednesday and Thursday, including: WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen), DT Tim Jernigan (foot), CB Avonte Maddox (concussion), Darren Sproles (quad), LB Nigel Bradham (ankle) and OL Jason Peters (knee). Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Bills WR John Brown vs. Eagles Secondary

The Eagles have been spanked by opposing wide receivers for an NFL-high 1,383 yards and 11 touchdowns. Every member of the Eagles secondary except cornerback Jalen Mills has failed to earn a top-50 grade from Pro Football Focus this season, and Mills’ 4.61 speed is no match for Brown’s 4.34-second jets.

John Brown
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: John Brown

Brown has at least five receptions in five of six games and has topped 50 yards in every game. His consistent production should continue against a defense ranked 23rd in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers, per Football Outsiders. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bills -1.5
  • Projected Total: 42.5

The 5-1 Bills are one of the biggest surprises of 2019. Their 4-2 Pythagorean expected record makes them a full win above expectations, which is the fourth-luckiest win total so far this season.

There could be some value on the underdog here as the lookahead line before the season started was Eagles -3. We all know how vulnerable their secondary has been and that the Bills are likely to attack Philly through the air, but I don’t like them as much when their game plan could involve relying on Josh Allen’s arm more than normal. While he’s made considerable strides in his second season, he’s still a below-average passer who relies on his legs.

The Eagles are more equipped to handle a QB like Allen, which is why I’d lean Philly here. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Bills have been one of the most profitable teams this season, covering the spread in four of their six games. The same can’t be said for the Eagles, who are 2-5 against the spread.

Nearly 70% of spread tickets are on the Bills to cover as small home favorites as of writing (see live public betting data here), but bettors shouldn’t expect each team to continue their ATS ways.

ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.

Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 167-104-9 (61.6%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,381 following this strategy.

Bettors are counting the Eagles out against the Bills, but history suggests Philly can cover. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Eagles +2

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.

I’m buying low on the Eagles after two straight embarrassing losses — the 37-10 final against the Cowboys was fairly misleading — and sticking with my theme of selling teams that have benefited from extremely soft schedules.

The Bills are 5-1 with their one loss coming at home to New England, but the five teams they’ve beat have a combined 6-27 record. They won those games by a combined 36 points — a little more than a touchdown per game.

That would be bad enough, but the five quarterbacks they beat have three (!) combined wins and two of them (Marcus Mariota and Eli Manning) are now backups riding the pine.

Things have just bounced the Bills’ way all season. From four missed Titans field goals to a few fortunate fourth-quarter comebacks against the Jets and Bengals, the Bills have enjoyed some breaks, which I think is driving some inflation.

It’s worth noting that the Eagles will be playing their third straight road game, which doesn’t happen often. However, in this day and age, teams are much smarter about travel, so it no longer has as much of an adverse effect as it once did. Plus, teams playing their third straight road game are 29-29 ATS over the past 15 seasons — that includes an Eagles victory over the Giants in this exact situation in 2017.

Despite some key injuries — particularly along the interior of the defensive line and at left tackle with Jason Peters — the Eagles still have superior talent on the offensive and defensive lines. The Eagles should stymie the Bills’ rushing attack while providing Carson Wentz with enough time to make plays in what should be a lower-scoring game.

Bills linebacker Matt Milano may also miss another game, which could open things up for Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, which I expect Philly to heavily utilize once again. I don’t expect Jackson to go, but if he does, that will be an enormous bonus as the lack of a deep threat has really clogged up the Eagles offense with no real threat of the long ball.

But most importantly, I don’t think Allen can exploit Philadelphia’s biggest weakness: its secondary, specifically downfield throws. Per PFF, Allen has the second-worst passing grade on passes 10 or more yards downfield. He has only four big-time throws to his name — fewer than the amount of turnover-worthy plays (5).

The Eagles’ corner situation is a mess but it should be the best it’s been on Sunday with Ronald Darby back in the lineup with Mills. The Bills are also really lacking on the outside at the No. 2 receiver after the departure of Zay Jones and a few injuries, so the Eagles can really focus their resources on Brown.

I also expect Jim Schwartz to bring a ton of his patented pressure against a vulnerable Bills offensive line that ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate, so Allen should trip up and make a key mistake or two.

I think Philly wins the battle of the trenches and escapes Buffalo with a much needed victory to avoid dropping to 3-5. Wait to see if a +3 pops, but if not, anything at +1.5 or better will suffice. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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