Colts vs Eagles NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Jeff Saturday (right).
- The Eagles are 6.5-point favorites against the Colts in Week 11.
- Philadelphia is coming off its first loss of the season last Monday night.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the game and makes his pick below.
Colts vs Eagles Odds
The Jeff Saturday interim head coach era began last week and the Colts responded with an inspired 25-20 road win in Las Vegas. Despite all of the media criticism over Saturday's hire — he has no college or NFL coaching experience at any level — the mood has shifted in Indianapolis, even if only for a week.
Saturday has his home debut on Sunday when the previously unbeaten Eagles visit Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Eagles suffered their first defeat of the season at home on Monday Night Football against the Commanders. Their defense showed cracks and the offense failed to mount a comeback.
The market opened this line around nine points and has since moved steadily toward the Colts. Even though it's down to seven now, the Colts have some matchup advantages they can potentially exploit.
Colts vs Eagles Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Colts and Eagles match up statistically:
Colts vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown
It could be a coincidence, but the Colts did have their best offensive line performance of the entire season after Saturday called them out during the week for poor performance.
Left guard Quenton Nelson, largely mediocre this season, had his best PFF grade last week. Saturday opted to start Will Fries at RG over Danny Pinter and the Colts registered their best run blocking grade from a right guard all year.
The Raiders have an above average pass rush, yet Matt Ryan was pressured on just 13.3% of his dropbacks and was only sacked once. Jonathan Taylor has battled injury for most of the season, but his ankle is 100% and he had his most yards per rush before contact.
It could be a matter of the Raiders' futility that the Colts had so much offensive success. Ryan has played most of the season under duress and without a run game, though, and he finally was protected and supported with a run game. The Colts entered last week last in offensive EPA per play, but there's no reason for them to not be at least league average with competent offensive line play.
The game plan for the Colts on Sunday will be built around establishing Taylor early and often. The Eagles have shown major flaws in run defense in the last few weeks. Because Philly has been a huge frontrunner all season, opposing teams haven't been able to stick with their run game — but if the Eagles are in a competitive game, that's when they can get exposed.
The Eagles rank last in rushing success rate allowed and second to last in EPA/rush allowed. The pass defense is in the top five in both metrics, in part because they have forced teams to be so one dimensional by leading in games.
Though the Colts offense has been a league-wide embarrassment at times this year, their defense has been solid all year. Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner are two of the best run stopping interior defensive linemen in the league. The Colts are sixth in rushing success rate allowed and first in EPA per rush allowed, even if you control for turnovers in those numbers.
Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley plays a ton of zone, and that's the blueprint Washington used to beat the Eagles. The Commanders played 75% zone, per PFF, and the Eagles had their lowest EPA per play against zone of the entire season. They've been considerably better against man coverage — Jalen Hurts' scrambles and A.J. Brown are a major reason why.
Hurts hasn't been as good against zone, and their best zone-beating player is tight end Dallas Goedert over the middle. He'll miss this game with an injury. The Colts rank top five in the league in zone usage rate. Hurts' two worst games by PFF grades this season have come against the zone-heavy Commanders.
It's important to not overreact to one game or one week in the NFL. The Colts had one of their best performances in Vegas, and the Eagles had a bizarre loss.
But the Eagles still have plenty of regression coming. They've been the healthiest team through 10 weeks and they've had by far the best turnover margin. You can credit them for that and correctly say they've earned their 8-1 record.
But that doesn't mean the Eagles will continue to produce unsustainable turnover margins going forward. Philadelphia is +13 in turnovers, which is five better than any other team. The Colts are -9 (second worst). Those extreme swing plays are making the presumed gap between these two seem bigger than it really is on a play-to-play basis.
The Eagles defense was on the field for 81 plays on Monday night and now has a short week of rest and travel disadvantage. If the line dips below a touchdown, I wouldn't bet the Colts. At +7 or better, it's time to ride with Saturday and the Colts season redemption narrative.
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