Eagles vs. Giants Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds: How to Bet Philly in a Must-Win Game
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz
- If the Eagles want to make the playoffs, they'll have to start by beating the Giants.
- Our experts preview Philly's must-win Week 17 matchup against New York.
Eagles at Giants Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Eagles -4
- Over/Under: 45
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 4-point road favorites in a win-and-get-in game against the New York Giants. If Carson Wentz and Co. can pull out the victory, the NFC East and the NFC’s final playoff berth is theirs.
With the stakes in mind, our experts preview this divisional matchup and make their pick.
Eagles-Giants Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Giants
The Giants could be down their best pass-rusher with Alec Ogletree (back) missing practice to begin the week. Darius Slayton (knee) also popped up on the injury report, but Daniel Jones targeted him just twice in Week 16.
Jordan Howard (shoulder) is expected to be back, but it sounds like the Eagles will continue to ride Miles Sanders. Most notably, Zach Ertz (ribs) was held out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Ertz has a legitimate chance to be out, leaving Dallas Goedert to take on the primary tight end work in a must-win game. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Eagles Pass Offense vs. Giants Pass Defense
Despite a decimated Eagles receiving corps, this is still the biggest statistical mismatch between these two NFC East rivals.
In their Week 14 meeting, Carson Wentz tallied 325 passing yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles’ 23-17 win. Since then, the Giants have allowed an average of 38.5 points to the Dolphins and Redskins, who have a combined seven wins.
The Eagles’ passing attack should find success against a Giants’ pass defense that allowed a combined three passing touchdowns last week to rookie Dwayne Haskins and journeyman Case Keenum. The Giants funnel defense currently ranks No. 8 against the run but No. 31 against the pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Even with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery out for the season and fellow wideout Nelson Agholor likely to miss yet another game, Philadelphia still has plenty of receiving weapons to attack this weak New York secondary. The Giants are the fourth-most generous to opposing wide receivers.
Philadelphia found success in its first meeting by attacking with the tight end position, with Ertz totaling nine receptions, 91 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Even with Ertz hobbled by a broken rib, Goedert should be able to continue that positional success for the Eagles.
Wentz can also attack New York through the air via running back receptions, as Boston Scott and Sanders totaled 10 receptions and 93 yards against the Giants three weeks ago.
Despite starting wideouts with limited NFL success (Greg Ward and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside), I expect the Eagles to still find success against their rival with the division title at stake. — Mike Randle
PRO System Match
Unders have been a smart play in division matchups as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment — unders have gone 843-744-29 (53.1%) since 2003.
It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.
Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 195-114-3 (63.1%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $7,135 following this strategy.
A majority of tickets are on the over but history suggests the under has value. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Randle: Under 45
As John outlined above, divisional matchups tend to skew under 45 points, and with the divisional title at stake, I expect this game to follow the same model.
While the Giants will struggle to stop the Eagles’ passing attack, this total failed to crest 40 points in their Week 14 matchup. The 325-yard passing performance by Wentz equated to only 23 total points in a home matchup.
The Giants rush defense has been strong all season, especially since acquiring DT Leonard Williams from the Jets in late October. The Giants are motivated to play spoiler to their divisional rival at home, especially since the Eagles have won 11 of the past 12 matchups.
I expect an inspired Giants efforts in a low-scoring Eagles win that supports the historic trend.
Randle is 243-233-5 (51.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.