Ezekiel Elliott Player Props: Expert Pick for Cowboys vs Buccaneers

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Ezekiel Elliott Longest Rush 

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Monday night’s matchup between the Buccaneers and Cowboys will be a rematch of their Week 1 duel and features a spread that suggests this will be a close one.

In Ezekiel Elliott’s seventh season, he averaged a career-low 58.4 yards per game on a mere 3.8 yards per carry. His lack of explosiveness is evident, and his role looks different entering the playoffs.

Tony Pollard is Dallas' preferred back for long-down situations while Elliott gets short down and goal line work. Pollard's speed has led to more opportunities.

Since the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, Pollard trails Elliott in rushing share split 43% to 37%. According to Pro Football Focus’ breakaway percentage model, Pollard ranks second while Elliott is 33rd among 45 running backs with a minimum of 100 rushing attempts.

Elliott has not had a rush of 13+ yards in eight of his 15 games despite what appears to be a favorable schedule for running backs. If you look back at the last seven games in which he's had a carry greater than 13 yards, six of them came against teams in the bottom 10 of Pro Football Focus’ rush DVOA, including the Giants (32nd), Texans (27th), Lions (26th) and Eagles (21st).

In the Week 1 meeting, Elliott was bottled up on drives and his longest rush was just seven yards. Tampa Bay was able to take away the running game, forcing Dak Prescott to be one dimensional in the air. The Bucs defense is healthier entering this game and ranks 13th in DVOA against the run.

Oddsmakers expect Elliott to run the ball just 13 times. Against a healthy defense committed to stopping the run, look for the back to go under his longest rush prop tonight.