Freedman’s Favorite Divisional Round Prop Bet (Jan. 12): Michael Thomas has Massive Value
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).
- Matthew Freedman is kicking off 2019 with a new series featuring his favorite prop bet of each day.
- On Saturday, he looks at the NFL divisional round games and highlights the most receiving yardage prop with Michael Thomas.
I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.
A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.
So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. They’ve been ones that offer an edge, but not ones that are obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market. That distinction might not matter to readers, but I want to be transparent.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
5-6-1, -0.65 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 1-2-0, -0.85 Units
- NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
- NHL: 3-0-1, +1.7 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Divisional Round Prop Bet for Saturday, Jan. 12: Most Receiving Yards
The Pick: Michael Thomas +800
This is a bonus prop pick in addition to the arbitrage Chiefs-Colts sack prop and it expires once the early game kicks off.
There are so many things to like about Thomas: He led the league with 125 receptions this year, and he has a great matchup against an injured Eagles secondary.
Earlier this week, Sean Koerner highlighted Thomas as a betting value at +800, and that was BEFORE the winter conditions in Kansas City made wide receivers Tyreek Hill and T.Y. Hilton much less likely to lead the slate in receiving yardage.
This line is available at MyBookie. I’d probably bet it down to +650.