The Green Bay Packers (5-3) take on the New England Patriots (5-3) today in NFL Week 9 action. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Patriots are favored by -3 on the spread, with the over/under set at 44.5 points. The Patriots are -166 favorites on the moneyline and the Packers are +140 underdogs.
Let's get into my Packers vs Patriots predictions for Sunday, November, 8.
Packers vs Patriots Prediction
- Packers vs Patriots pick: Packers +3 (-110)
My Packers vs Patriots best bet is on Green Bay to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Packers vs Patriots Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
- Packers vs Patriots Spread: Packers +3, Patriots -3
- Packers vs Patriots Total: 44.5
- Packers vs Patriots Moneyline: Packers +140, Patriots -166
Packers vs Patriots NFL Week 9 Preview
The Packers under head coach Matt LaFleur have been an excellent team to back when they are priced as underdogs. LaFleur has covered 65.1% of all games when his team is catching points, and I believe this is another very good spot for Green Bay to potentially steal a victory.
The narrative surrounding the Packers offense has to do with their lack of pass protection, as every mention of their future outlook as a Super Bowl contender is usually followed by a comment regarding their offensive line issues.
Jordan Love is navigating those issues quite well, as it may be surprising to some that he has just a 32% pressure rate on all of his dropbacks. Only seven quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks have faced pressure less often than Love this season.
We already know Green Bay struggles to run the football effectively, and that data point is completely baked into the line here. Sure, most of the offensive success for this team is squarely on the shoulders of Love, but that is something I am completely comfortable with against a Patriots team that ranks 26th in quick pressure percentage. Quick pressures occur within 2.5 seconds of the snap, and it is not something I am concerned about happening regularly in this matchup.
If there is a signal caller who will be under constant duress in this game, it is likely to be Drake Maye.
Maye has regained his MVP-level play from a season ago, but protection issues that plagued this team in the playoffs remain. The 44% pressure rate allowed by the New England offensive line is the highest rate league-wide.
The Packers are generating pressure at the 12th-highest rate, but more importantly, they are converting those pressures into sacks. Green Bay has 22 sacks on the season, the sixth-most in the NFL.
While the Packers' pass rush is undoubtedly above average, it has been the coverage in the secondary that has been this defense's biggest strength. Green Bay allows just 6.2 yards per pass attempt (fifth-best) while also ranking among the top five pass defenses in expected points added (EPA) per pass against.
During Maye’s hot streak, he has been doing his best work when throwing down the field. Maye leads the league in touchdown passes of 20 or more yards downfield this season, in addition to being efficient in the intermediate areas of the field.
Over the past five weeks, Maye has completed 67% of his throws that have traveled more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. However, it is worth noting he has not played the most difficult slate of defenses during that stretch.
The Packers are a completely different animal defensively than the teams Maye has shredded in recent weeks. During that same span of five games, Green Bay is second in the league in defensive EPA. The Packers specialize in limiting explosive plays — allowing the third-fewest of any defense in football.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, the Packers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 44% of their passes, generating seven interceptions while allowing just two touchdowns.
The Patriots are not equipped to pressure Love as often as they need to, but the Packers do possess the tools to halt numerous New England possessions with their sticky coverage and timely pass rush led by Devonte Wyatt and Lukas Van Ness.
Packers vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
Jordan Love and Drake Maye are in good form — both rank inside the top 12 of qualifying quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt, have passer ratings that exceed 105.0 when kept clean and boast identical big-time throw rates. Let’s call it a wash at quarterback.
The team protecting their passer more cleanly also happens to be the team with the decided advantage defensively. Getting three points with the Packers in this spot is a tremendous value.
Add in Matt LaFleur’s success rate at covering the number as an underdog during his tenure as Packers head coach, and this may be one of my strongest positions of the NFL season thus far.
Pick: Packers +3 (-110)
